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Modeling the Effects of Disasters on a Human Population and Resources. TJHSST Computer Systems Tech Lab 2008-2009 Joshua Yoon. Abstract. 400 disasters reported in 2008 epidemics, tsunamis, hurricanes, earthquakes, etc Goals
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Modeling the Effects of Disasters on a Human Population and Resources TJHSST Computer Systems Tech Lab 2008-2009 Joshua Yoon
Abstract • 400 disasters reported in 2008 • epidemics, tsunamis, hurricanes, earthquakes, etc • Goals • accurately model a human population using logistical growth & system dynamics • accurately model the effects of disasters on a human population • from the model, be able to predict the effects of future disasters on a nearby human population
Background • What is System Dynamics? • a modeling approach to understanding the behavior of complex systems over time • System Dynamics vs. Agent-Based Modeling • system dynamics is relationship based (focuses on internal feedback loops between variables of the system) • agent-based modeling is random interactions between individuals of a system
Programming Languages • current system dynamics programming language • Stella : user friendly interface with built in arguments for variables • programming language used to create this project • NetLogo : arguments for variables not built in and relationships must be coded manually
Development and Methodology • create a human population • logistical growth • dependent on other variables • implement a Resource Class • inhibits population growth (carrying capacity) • implement disasters and recovery • make disasters that affect human population and have the population respond accordingly • compare test results with real data
Coding Interface Translated… globals [ Day TimeAfterDisaster Humans Resources dt ] to system-dynamics-setup reset-ticks set dt 1.0 set Day 0 set TimeAfterDisaster 20000 set Humans HumanPopulationstart set Resources ResourceStart end to system-dynamics-go let local-BirthRate BirthRate let local-DeathRateTsunami DeathRateTsunami let local-DeathRateAsteroid DeathRateAsteroid let local-DeathRateHurricane DeathRateHurricane let new-Day max( list 0 ( Day + local-daystep - local-newyear ) ) let new-TimeAfterDisaster max( list 0 ( TimeAfterDisaster + local-timestep - local-Reset ) ) let new-Humans max( list 0 ( Humans + local-HumanBirths - local-HumanDeaths + local-NewPeople ) ) let new-Resources max( list 0 ( Resources - local-consumption + local-NewResources ) ) set Day new-Day set TimeAfterDisaster new-TimeAfterDisaster set Humans new-Humans set Resources new-Resources tick-advance dt end to-report ResourceRateDisaster report ifelse-value(Resources < (carryingcapacity / 2)) [((.9 + (.4 * (TimeAfterDisaster / 11000))) * Humans) / 365] [((.9 + (.1 * (TimeAfterDisaster / 11000))) * Humans) / 365] end
Data Comparison • www.emdat.be • database of disasters of past century • took top disasters and found correlations within the numbers