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Modeling the Effects of Disasters on a Human Population and Resources

Modeling the Effects of Disasters on a Human Population and Resources. TJHSST Computer Systems Tech Lab 2008-2009 Joshua Yoon. Abstract. 400 disasters reported in 2008 epidemics, tsunamis, hurricanes, earthquakes, etc Goals

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Modeling the Effects of Disasters on a Human Population and Resources

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  1. Modeling the Effects of Disasters on a Human Population and Resources TJHSST Computer Systems Tech Lab 2008-2009 Joshua Yoon

  2. Abstract • 400 disasters reported in 2008 • epidemics, tsunamis, hurricanes, earthquakes, etc • Goals • accurately model a human population using logistical growth & system dynamics • accurately model the effects of disasters on a human population • from the model, be able to predict the effects of future disasters on a nearby human population

  3. Background • What is System Dynamics? • a modeling approach to understanding the behavior of complex systems over time • System Dynamics vs. Agent-Based Modeling • system dynamics is relationship based (focuses on internal feedback loops between variables of the system) • agent-based modeling is random interactions between individuals of a system

  4. Programming Languages • current system dynamics programming language • Stella : user friendly interface with built in arguments for variables • programming language used to create this project • NetLogo : arguments for variables not built in and relationships must be coded manually

  5. Development and Methodology • create a human population • logistical growth • dependent on other variables • implement a Resource Class • inhibits population growth (carrying capacity) • implement disasters and recovery • make disasters that affect human population and have the population respond accordingly • compare test results with real data

  6. NetLogo : Coding Interface

  7. Coding Interface Translated… globals [ Day TimeAfterDisaster Humans Resources dt ] to system-dynamics-setup reset-ticks set dt 1.0 set Day 0 set TimeAfterDisaster 20000 set Humans HumanPopulationstart set Resources ResourceStart end to system-dynamics-go let local-BirthRate BirthRate let local-DeathRateTsunami DeathRateTsunami let local-DeathRateAsteroid DeathRateAsteroid let local-DeathRateHurricane DeathRateHurricane let new-Day max( list 0 ( Day + local-daystep - local-newyear ) ) let new-TimeAfterDisaster max( list 0 ( TimeAfterDisaster + local-timestep - local-Reset ) ) let new-Humans max( list 0 ( Humans + local-HumanBirths - local-HumanDeaths + local-NewPeople ) ) let new-Resources max( list 0 ( Resources - local-consumption + local-NewResources ) ) set Day new-Day set TimeAfterDisaster new-TimeAfterDisaster set Humans new-Humans set Resources new-Resources tick-advance dt end to-report ResourceRateDisaster report ifelse-value(Resources < (carryingcapacity / 2)) [((.9 + (.4 * (TimeAfterDisaster / 11000))) * Humans) / 365] [((.9 + (.1 * (TimeAfterDisaster / 11000))) * Humans) / 365] end

  8. NetLogo : Command Center

  9. The Complete Web

  10. Human Class

  11. Resource Class

  12. Deaths and Disaster Class

  13. Time Keepers

  14. All Components Combined…

  15. Variable Control and Graphing

  16. Data Comparison • www.emdat.be • database of disasters of past century • took top disasters and found correlations within the numbers

  17. Results & Analysis

  18. A Closer Look…

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