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Modeling Human Population Fronts: Progress and Future Directions

This talk will discuss the progress made in modeling human population fronts, including time-ordered models, realistic dispersion kernels, non-isotropic models, and genetic clines. The focus will be on the work done by the Girona group, as well as other relevant studies. The talk will also touch upon open problems and recent progress in the field.

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Modeling Human Population Fronts: Progress and Future Directions

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  1. FEPRE European project 2nd annual workshop St Petersburg 5-10 April 2008 Progress in modeling human population fronts Joaquim Fort Universitat de Girona Catalonia, Spain

  2. FEPRE work by the Girona group Manchester 2007 (1st FEPRE workshop): 1. Time-ordered models →SUBMITTED 2. Realistic dispersion kernels →IN PROGRESS 3. Non-isotropic models →PLANNED … 4. Genetic clines →PLANNED …

  3. FEPRE work by the Girona group St. Petersburg 2008 (2nd FEPRE workshop): 1. Time-ordered models →Phys. Rev. E 76, 031913 (2007) 2. Realistic dispersion kernels →talk by N. Isern 3. Non-isotropic models →New J. Phys. 76, 031913 (2007) 4. Genetic clines →2-population models →New J. Phys. in press (2008) → talk by J. Pérez-Losada IMPACT FACTOR (SCI ) JOURNAL             7                      Phys. Rev. Lett. 4 New J. Phys. 2 Phys. Rev. E

  4. Recent progress Girona group: • Non-isotropic models→New J. Phys.76 031913 (2007) Other groups: • M.J. Hamilton & B. Buchanan, PNAS104 15625 (2007) • G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS104 8714 (2007) IMPACT FACTOR (SCI ) JOURNAL    31                     Science            29                     Nature             14PLoS Biology  10                     PNAS              7                      Phys. Rev. Lett. 4 New J. Phys. 2 Phys. Rev. E

  5. Plan of this talk • Time-delayed equation • Hamilton & Buchanan, PNAS (2007) Girona group: • Non-isotropic models→New J. Phys. (2007) • G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS (2007)

  6. Recall < F+M, Phys. Rev. Lett. (1999)

  7. Hamilton & Buchanan, PNAS 104 15625 (2007)

  8. Hamilton & Buchanan, PNAS 104 15625 (2007) → predicted speed: 2 km/yr → observed speed: 8 km/yr

  9. Human prehistoric range expansion speeds

  10. Non-isotropic models · Manchester group: · Davison, Dolukhanov, Sarson & Shukurov, J. Arch. Sci. (2006) · FEPRE project application · Girona group: F & Pujol,New J. Phys.76 031913 (2007) isotropic non-isotropic

  11. Girona group: Non-isotropic models F & Pujol,New J. Phys.76 031913 (2007) front non-isotropic

  12. Human colonization of the U.S. during the XIX century Individual migrations are biased against the front propagation direction

  13. X→F or F→ X cultural competition (λ=0→Aoki, no cultural boundaries) H→X acculturation G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS 104 8714 (2007) F= farmers with neolithic language, genes, etc.H= hunter-gatherers with paleolithic language, genes, etc.X= converts = farmers with paleolithic language, genes, etc.

  14. G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS 104 8714 (2007)

  15. G. J. Ackland et al., PNAS 104 8714 (2007) Neolithic culture & genes Paleolithic culture & genes This is the only model known to predict cultural boundaries

  16. Open problems Data from Pinhasi, Fort & Ammerman, PLoS Biol (2005) Impact Factor (SCI)=14

  17. Open problems Data from Pinhasi, Fort & Ammerman, PLoS Biol (2005) Impact Factor (SCI)=14

  18. Recent progressVlad, Cavalli-Sforza & Ross, PNAS 101 10249 (2004)Currant & Excoffier, Proc. Roy. Soc. B 272 679 (2005)Open problemComparison between simulated & observed clines Spread of genetic mutations

  19. Aims of the FEPRE projectArcheaological data + mathematical modelling → denied (2005)Roots in prehistory of present socio-cultural diversity → approved (2006)

  20. Open problem

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