CLIMATE CHANGE AND CREATING A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE

DR. R. K. PACHAURIChairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeDirector-General, The Energy and Resources InstituteDirector, Yale Climate & Energy Institute CLIMATE CHANGE AND CREATING A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE 9th October 2011, Mongolia

OBSERVED CHANGES Global average temperature Global average sea level Northern hemisphere snow cover Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2007

PROJECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGES(2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999) (oC) 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century (best estimates: 1.8ºC - 4ºC)

INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC SINCE ABOUT 1970 - Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate

AVERAGE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES INCREASED AT ALMOST TWICE THE GLOBAL AVERAGE RATE IN THE PAST 100 YEARS - Annual average arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7% per decade

Photo credit: GoodPlanet MORE INTENSE AND LONGER DROUGHTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER WIDER AREAS SINCE THE 1970s, PARTICULARLY IN THE TROPICS AND SUBTROPICS

IMPACTS ON HUMAN HEALTH Projected climate change-related exposures are likely to affect the health status of millions of people, particularly those with low adaptive capacity • Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease primarily associated with floods and droughts • Exacerbation of the abundance and toxicity of cholera due to increase in coastal water temperature • Increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts

IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES • Glaciers in Asia are melting faster in recent years than before, particularly the Zerafshan glacier, the Abramov glacier and the glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau • Glacier meltisprojected to increase mudflows, flooding, rock avalanches and adversely affect water resources within the next 2 to 3 decades as well as affect people dependent on glacial melt for their water resources. • Rapid thawing of permafrost and decrease in depths of frozen soils due largely to rising temperature has threatened many cities and human settlements, has caused more frequent landslides and degeneration of some forest ecosystems, and has resulted in increased lake-water levels in the permafrost region of Asia.

IMPACTS ON FOOD SECURITY • Water stress at low latitudes means losses of productivity for both rain-fed and irrigated agriculture • Possible yield reduction in agriculture: • 50% by 2020 in some African countries • 30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia • 30% by 2080 in Latin America • Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa due to climate variability and change

VULNERABLE POPULATIONS Vulnerability in developing regions and among poor & marginalised communitiesis aggravated by low adaptive capacity and non-climate stresses, such as: • Dependence on climate-sensitive resources • Integrity of key infrastructure • Preparedness and planning • Sophistication of the public health system • Exposure to conflict Without appropriate measures, climate change will likely exacerbate the poverty situation and continue to slow down economic growth in developing countries

POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON MIGRATION AND CONFLICTS Rising ethnic conflicts can be linked to competition over increasingly scarce natural resources Numbers of environmental refugees could increase as extreme events, floods and famines become more frequent • Climate change could force hundreds of millions of peoplefrom their native land by the end of the century

CHARACTERISTICS OF STABILIZATION SCENARIOS POST-TAR STABILIZATION SCENARIOS

Cost of mitigation in 2030: max 3% of global GDP GDP without mitigation Mitigation would postpone GDP growth of one year at most over the medium term GDP with stringent mitigation IMPACTS OF MITIGATION ON GDP GROWTH GDP Current Time 2030

All stabilization levels assessed can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies that are currently available or expected to be commercialized in coming decades This assumes that investment flows, technology transfer and incentives are in place for technology development

BEYOND TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION INSTRUMENTS, POLICIES AND PRACTICES The pace, cost and extent of our response to climate change will depend critically on the cost, performance, and availability of technologies The move towards a low-carbon development pathway requires the adoption of adequate measures: • Effective carbon-price signal • Regulations, standards, taxes and charges • Changes in lifestyle

RENEWABLE ENERGY GROWTH • RAPID INCREASE IN RECENT YEARS • 140 GW of new RE power plant capacity was built in 2008-2009 • This equals 47% of all power plants built during that period

TECHNICAL ADVANCEMENTS: Growth in size of typical commercial wind turbines 17

RE costs have declined in the past and further declines can be expected in the future. 18

RE and Climate Change Mitigation Policies2004

RE and Climate Change Mitigation Policies2011

LaBl LIGHTING A BILLION LIVES

A technological society has two choices. First it can wait until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self-deceptions… Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures.

CLIMATE CHANGE AND CREATING A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE