340 likes | 358 Views
This conference call discusses the economic performance of ČEZ in the first half of 2005, including the increase in share price, dividend payout, EBIT growth, net income growth, and future forecasts. It also highlights ČEZ's market capitalization and improved credit ratings.
E N D
CONFERENCE CALL ČEZ 1st HALF 2005 RESULTS UNAUDITED, UNCONSOLIDATED ACCORDING TO IFRS Prague, August 1,2005
AGENDA • Economic performance • Petr Vobořil, Chief Finance Officer and Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors • Sales performance and strategic initiatives Alan Svoboda, Chief Sales Officer and Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors
ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN 1st HALF 2005 • Price of ČEZ’s share on the Prague Stock Exchange rose during 1st half from CZK 341 to CZK 471 (by 38 %) and reached CZK 525on July 29, 2005. • ČEZ, a. s. will pay a dividend of CZK 9 per share for 2004; the totalamount of the dividend pay-out will be CZK 5.3 bn. • EBITgrew by 58 % to CZK 10.9 bn y-on-y, increase of CZK 4 bn. • Net incomerose by 111 % toCZK 10.9 bn (increase of CZK 5.7 bn) y-o-y. • We are increasing our full 2005 net income forecastfrom CZK 13.5 bn to CZK 15.2 bn. • ROE increased by 96% y-o-y; we expect a 38% increase on annual basis. • VISION 2008 on track. • Plans for lignite plants portfolio renewal – finalized.
PRICE OF ČEZ’s SHARE ON PRAGUE STOCK EXCHANGE ROSE DURING 1st HALF FROM CZK 341 to CZK 471 (BY 38.2 %) AND REACHED CZK 525 ON JULY 29, 2005 Share price and stock exchange indices % 160 % 524.5 150 % 470.8 Movement in ČEZ‘s share price - June 2004 - 2005 ~ 155% 140 % - January - June 2005 ~ 38% 130 % ČEZ, a. s. 120 % 110 % Modified Bloomberg 100 % PX-50 * European Utilities 340.7 Index 90 % January February March April May June July *) The modified PX-50 has been re-calculated to eliminate the influence of movements in ČEZ‘s share price. Source: ČEZ and EEX
HAVING REACHED ALL TIMES HIGH OF CZK 535.5 PER SHARE ČEZ, A. S. BECAME THIRD BIGGEST CENTRAL EUROPEAN COMPANY BY MARKET CAPITALIZATION • Market capitalization • bn EUR • Third biggest in Central Europe (incl. financial institutions) • Biggest in Visegrad 4 • Biggest in new EU Member States Growth: + 31 % + 70 % + 59 % 14 12 10.5 10 December 31, 2004 8 6.6 July 27, 2005 6 4 2 0 OTP (H) OMV (A) MOL (H) Raiff. (A)** BA-CA (A)* TPSA (PL) PKO BP (PL) ČEZ, a. s. (CZ) Erste Bank (A) Telekom Austria (A) *) Bank Austria Creditanstalt **) Raiffeisen International Source: Analysts‘ reports
ČEZ, a. s. WILL PAY DIVIDEND OF CZK 9 PER SHAREFOR 2004. TOTAL DIVIDEND PAY-OUT WILL BE CZK 5.3 bn. CZK per share CZK bn 12 12 10 10 9 8 8 8 6 6 4 5.3 4.7 4 4 2.5 2 2.7 2 2 1.5 1.2 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 E2005 E2006 E2007 Amount of dividends Dividend per share
EBIT INCREASED Y-O-Y BY 58 % TO CZK 10.9 bn, INCREASE OF CZK 4 bn Index 1st half 1st haIf Diff. (CZK m) 05/04 2004 2005 05-04 • Main impacts • higher wholesale margins • more effective use of low cost plants • repairs and maintenance costs decrease (%) Revenues 31,099 33,770 2,670 108.6 Sales of electricity 29,904 32,522 2,617 108.8 Heat sales and other revenues 1,195 1,248 53 104.4 Operating expenses 24,172 22,839 -1,333 94.5 Fuel 7,199 7,048 -152 97.9 Purchased power and related services 4,565 3,663 -902 80.2 Repair and maintenance 1,290 1,120 -170 86.8 Depreciation and amortization 6,792 6,732 -59 99.1 Salaries and wages 2,009 1,932 -77 96.2 Materials and supplies 839 789 -50 94.0 Other operating expenses 1,478 1,556 77 105.2 Income before other expenses/income and income taxes (EBIT) 6,927 10,931 4,003 157.8
NET INCOME GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 111 % TO CZK 10.9 bn (INCREASE OF CZK 5.7 bn) Main non-operating impacts + 4.0 dividends received + 0.6 creation and settlement of allowances - 1.9 income tax - 1.0 interest on nuclear provisions - 0.8 interest on debt - 0.7 foreign exchange rate losses Index 1st half 1st half Diff. (CZK m) 05/04 2004 2005 05-04 (%) Income before other expenses/income and income taxes (EBIT) 6,927 10,931 4,003 157.8 Other expenses/income 354 -1,854 -2,208 x Interest on debt 715 764 49 106.8 Interest on nuclear provisions 980 1,025 45 104.5 Interest income -61 -71 -10 116.7 Foreign exchange rate losses/gains, net 159 676 516 423.9 -4,247 Other expenses/income, net -1,440 -2,807 294.9 -3,963 from which: dividends received -1,679 -2,285 236.1 creation and settlement of allowances 0 -608 -608 x Earnings before taxes 6,574 12,785 6,211 194.5 Income taxes 1,403 1,889 487 134.7 Net income 5,171 10,896 5,725 210.7
WE INCREASE OUR FULL 2005 NET INCOME FORECAST FROM CZK 13.5 bn TO CZK 15.2 bn CZK bn 18 0.4 2.6 16 14 1.0 12 10 + CZK 2 bn 8 15.2 13.2 + 15.4% 6 10.4 4 2 0 Dividends received NET INCOME 2004 Operating and other items NET INCOME 2005 (plan) NET INCOME 2005 (forecast) Foreign exchange rate losses/gains
10 9 8 7 6 6.6 5 4 3 3.4 2 1 0 1st half of 2004 1st half of 2005 ROE INCREASED BY 96% Y-O-Y; WE EXPECT 38% INCREASE ON ANNUAL BASIS Return on Equity (net) % 10 + 38.1% 9 9.1 8 + 95.8% 7 6 6.6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2004 E2005
VALUE ADDED PER EMPLOYEE AND MONTH INCREASED BY 24 % Value added per employee and month CZK / month / person + 23.8% + 20.8%
RATING BY MOODY’S AND STANDARD & POORS IMPROVED Standard & Poor’s confirmed long-term rating BBB+,changed outlook from stable to positive (May 2005) Moody’s changed long-term rating from Baa1 to A3, outlook unchanged (June 2005). • Credit rating of ČEZ, a. s. and the Czech Republic BB+ BBB- BBB BBB+ A- A A+ • BBB+ • ČEZ, a. s. • Standard & Poor’s • Czech • Republic • A- • ČEZ, a. s. • A3 • Moody’s • Czech • Republic • A1 Ba1 Baa3 Baa2 Baa1 A3 A2 A1
300 22.8 250 10.4 66.2 Current assets 69.5 200 Other non-current 178.9 173.4 assets 150 Property, plant and equipment 100 50 0 31.12.2004 30.6.2005 BALANCE SHEET REMAINS ROBUST ASSETS CZK bn EQUITY & LIABILITIES CZK bn Increase especially in liabilities from dividends declared Increase in cash and cash equivalents by 8.4 CZK bn 255.5 265.7 255.5 265.7 Increase in financial investments 300 Current liabilities 17.1 250 13.8 14.0 11.9 Deffered tax liability 29.6 29.3 200 38.0 38.1 Nuclear provisions 167.0 150 162.4 100 Long-term liabilities excl. provisions Profit of period, net of dividends 50 Equity 0 31. 12. 2004 30. 6. 2005
CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES INCREASED Annual increase: + 23.2% Increase in cash flow from operating activities in the 1st half 2005 is mainly due to favourable development of the electricity sales. 14.0 11.4 1sthalf 2004 1st haIf 2005
DEBT RATIOS REMAIN BEST IN THE INDUSTRY Limit for Total Indebtedness is 50% (limit results from current loan agreements) % 50 45 45 40 40 35 35 30 30 25 25 26.2 24.8 23.9 20 20 24.4 15 15 16.4 14.9 14.3 10 10 11.5 5 5 0 0 As of June 30, 2004 As of June 30, 2005 2004 E2005 Total indebtedness with provisions excluded Long-term indebtedness
Company Name • ČEZ • SČE • SME • STE • VČE • ZČE • ER Pleven • ER Sofia Oblast • ER Stolichno • Sales • 33,770 • 6,207 • 7,708 • 6,726 • 6,421 • 4,408 • 1,570 • 1,573 • 2,863 • EBIT • 10,931 • 889 • 1,037 • 879 • 833 • 638 • 67 • 160 • 280 • EBITDA • 17,663 • 1,223 • 1,449 • 1,254 • 1,157 • 871 • 184 • 252 • 450 • Net Profit • 10,896 • 668 • 860 • 644 • 705 • 514 • 54 • 120 • 229 OVERVIEW OF KEY SUBSIDIARIES UNCONSOLIDATEDH1 2005 RESULTS ČEZ, a. s. and electricity distribution companies • ČEZ • Zákaz. • služby • ČEZData • ČEZnet • ČEZ Měření • Company Name Other companies 1st half 2005 CZK m • 150 • 698 • 561 • 84 • Sales • 25 • 37 • 161 • 20 • EBIT As of June 30, 2005 consolidated ČEZ Group consisted from 32 companiesfully consolidated and 6 companies consolidated by equity method. • 25 • 274 • 286 • 24 • EBITDA • 25 • 38 • 146 • 14 • Net Profit
AGENDA • Economic performance Petr Vobořil, Chief Finance Officer and Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors • Sales performance and strategic initiatives Alan Svoboda, Chief Sales Officer and Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors
HIGHLIGHTS OF 1st HALF 2005 • Virtual power plant and wholesale electricity auctions to start in the next few days. • Having received 36.9 m metric tons CO2 emission permits, ČEZ can increase power generation in lignite power plants by 5.3% compared to 2004. • ČEZ increased utilization of power plants with lower costs. • ČEZ increased domestic electricity suppliesby 0.8 %.
VIRTUAL POWER PLANT AND WHOLESALE AUCTIONS TO START IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS • Virtual Power Plant • Based on the decision of the Czech AntitrustOffice (related to acquisition of SČE distribution company), ČEZ will hold an auction to sell a Virtual Power Plant with capacity of 400 MW (lowered during summer to 240MW); the electricity volume to be sold will be approximately 3.2 TWh. • Auction starts on August 3, 2005. • To date17 parties have expressed interest. • Important price signal for the wholesale auction of Duhová Power. • Wholesale auction • Wholesale auction to sell supply for 2006 will follow the Virtual Power Plant auction.
GAP BETWEEN ELECTRICITY PRICES IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC AND ABROAD WIDENS Wholesale electricity prices 2000 index 40 - 45 EUR 260 • Germany * 240 220 200 180 160 • Czech Republic ** 140 ? 120 100 80 60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 * Baseload ** Average price charged by ČEZ, a. s. for supply to regional distribution companiesEZ
47 110 100 45 90 43 80 41 70 39 60 37 50 40 35 30 33 20 31 10 4.1.2005 1.2.2005 1.3.2005 7.6.2005 5.7.2005 15.2.2005 15.3.2005 29.3.2005 12.4.2005 26.4.2005 10.5.2005 24.5.2005 21.6.2005 19.7.2005 18.1.2005 7.6.2005 5.7.2005 4.1.2005 1.2.2005 1.3.2005 18.1.2005 29.3.2005 26.4.2005 24.5.2005 21.6.2005 15.2.2005 15.3.2005 12.4.2005 10.5.2005 19.7.2005 FOREIGN PRICES CONTINUE GROWING SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO INCREASED DEMAND AND SUPPLY UNPREDICTABILITY Spot prices on German exchange EEX (baseload) EUR/MWh Forward electricity prices for the year 2006 on German exchange EEX (baseload) EUR/MWh Source:EEX
FOLLOWING ALLOCATION OF 36.9 m METRIC TONS OF CO2 EMISSION PERMITS PER YEAR FOR 2005 – 2007, ČEZ CAN INCREASE GENERATION IN LIGNITE-FIRED POWER PLANTS BY 5.3 % + 5,3 % Current ultimate capacity of lignite-fired PPs Carbon dioxide emissions in 2004 Allocation of carbon dioxide emission permits Generation of lignite-fired PPs covered by current allocations Electricity generation in lignite-fired power plants in 2004 Carbon dioxide emissions in 2001 (TWh) (m metric tons) (TWh) (TWh) (m metric tons) (m metric tons)
CO2 EMISSION PERMITS HELP ČEZ TO HEDGE ITS TRADING POSITION EUR/MWh Export margin Emission permit’s price ** Minimum margin Cross border capacity fee EUR/MWh EUR/t 48 35 Total variable costs 46 30 44 Electricity price*** Emission permit‘s price Variable costs * 42 25 40 38 20 36 15 34 32 10 30 28 5 *) Coal-fired power plants **) Generation of 1 MWh of electricity in coal-fired power plant induces production of 1.04 metric tons of carbon dioxide. ***) 2006 baseload future traded at EEX January February March April May June July
Coal power plants Hydro power plants Wind and solar power plants Nuclear power plants ČEZ INCREASED UTILIZATION OF POWER PLANTS WITH LOWER COSTS TWh 30.5 TWh 30.2 TWh • Hydro – favorable hydrological conditions, all power plants broken during flood in 2002 are now back in operation • Nuclear – higher utilization of generation capacity will be compensated by lower output of Unit 2 in the second half of 2005 (high pressure part of turbine is broken) • Coal – decrease of share in favor of nuclear power plants 35 1 (3%) 1 (3%) 30 25 11.5 (38%) 12.3 (41%) 20 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 15 10 18 (59%) 16.9 (56%) 5 0 1st half 2004 1st half 2005
ČEZ INCREASED DOMESTIC ELECTRICITYSUPPLIES BY 0.8% Electricity demand in the Czech Republic TWh • ČEZ, a. s. share in demand 29.5 28.8 30 + 2.2 % 25 20 68.2 % 66.8 % 15 10 5 0 1st half 2004 1st half 2005 *) incl. electricity domestic sales for further export
REVENUES FROM ELECTRICITY SALES INCREASE MAINLY DUE TO HIGHER PRICE Electricity sales excl. auxilliary services CZK m 70,000 E 57,700 60,000 54,704 46,233 2nd half 50,000 Slowdown in sales growth is caused by structural changes in the domestic market. Trading through public markets and with regional distribution companies are declining. 40,000 30,000 1st half 20,000 29,572 27,444 22,401 10,000 0 2003 2004 2005
STRATEGIC INITIATIVES • Integration and operational excelence • Vision 2008 on track. • Unbundling to be implemented by the of 2005. • ČEZ, a. s. intends to squeeze out minority shareholders from four out of its five Czech distribution companies. • M&A expansion • ČEZ, a. s. continues in its M&A activities in CEE countries. • Plant portfolio renewal • Supply of lignite from Severočeské doly and Mostecká uhelná mining companies are secured by long-term agreements. • In the period until 2020, ČEZ, a. s. plans to invest CZK 90 – 100 bn in retrofitting existing power plants and in building new power plants. • The Czech Government granted 90-day exclusivity for ČEZ, a. s. to negotiate acquisition of its 56% stake in Severočeské doly mining company.
ČEZ, A. S. INTENDS TO SQUEEZE OUT MINORITY SHAREHOLDERS FROM FOUR OUT OF ITS FIVE CZECH DISTRIBUTION COMPANIES • ČEZ controls between 97.72 % and 99.13 % stakes in four (out of five) Czech distribution companies (SME, STE, VČE, ZČE). • ČEZ has decided to utilize a newly implemented squeeze-out procedure in all of them to gain 100% control. • The first steps have been initiated already. • Total costs of the squeeze-outs are expected to reach CZK 512 m. Zdroj: ČEZ, a. s.
M & A IN CENTRAL EUROPE Poland 1. Privatization ofZespół Elektrowni Dolna Odra SA (power plants Dolna Odra, Pomorzany and Szczecin) Initial offer on April 21, we are on the short list, due diligence finished, more specific bid is in preparation. 2. Elektrownia “Kozienice“ SA (power plant Kozienice) Initial offer on April 28, ČEZ is on the short list, due diligence finished, more specific bid is in preparation. • 3. Acquisition of ZE PAK – electricity generating company Zespół Elektrowni Patnów – Adamów – Konin SA. • Acquisition negotiations are in progress.
ACQUISITION GOALS IN SOUTHEAST EUROPE Bulgaria • Generation We placed bids for the power plants Varna and Russe. ČEZ placed second behind the Russian company RAO in both cases. However, according to a decision of the Bulgarian Antitrust Office it is not possible to sell both power plants to one bidder and the situation remains open. Romania • Generation Power plants and mines – Rovinari (1,320 MW), Turceni (2,310 MW) and Craiova (630 MW). Tender is to begin in the 2nd half of 2005. • Distribution Distribution company Muntenia Sud. Tender is presumed to begin in August 2005.
PLANS FOR LIGNITE PLANTS PORTFOLIO RENEWAL – FINALIZEDLIGNITE PLANTS INSTALLED CAPACITY TO DECLINE AFTER 2035 • Capacity • MW • Agressive • Conservative • Retrofits • Existing plants • New plants • Retrofits • Existing plants • In the best case scenario the current level of installed capacity will be retained until 2035; after that the installed capacity will decline sharply.
LIGNITE PLANTS PORTFOLIO RENEWAL – CONCLUSIONSTOTAL RELATED CAPEX TO REACH CZK 100 bn • EXPECTED CAPEX – CONSERVATIVE SCENARIO • CZK m 2008 – 2015 Main Assets Renewal Period • PROJECTS OVERVIEW • 1) Retrofits • Gross efficiency improvement from 36% to 41% • Tušimice II 4 x 200 MW • Prunéřov II4 x 200 MW • Počerady 3 x 200 MW • 2) New units • Gross efficiency 45% • Počerady 1 x 660 MW • Ledvice 1 x 660 MW 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
BROWN COAL SUPPLIES SECURED VIA LONG TERM SUPPLY CONTRACTS WITH SEVEROČESKÉ DOLY AND MOSTECKÁ UHELNÁ • ČEZ executed long-term supply contracts with its two main lignite suppliers (>90% of ČEZ’s lignite consumption). • The contracts are for period of approximately 50 years. • The contracts guarantee quality and quantity of supplied coal, in line with requirements related to lignite plants portfolio renewal. • Price risks are mitigated by linking the coal price to the index of electricity price and inflation. The link is with gearing below 1, i.e. one point change of the index above brings less than one point change in coal price. • In addition to the above, theCzech Republic Government granted ČEZ 90-day exclusivity to negotiate acquisition of its 56% stake in Severočeské doly. • The potential transaction would further enhance ČEZ’s control over lignite supplies.