Frank Raes , Peter Bergamaschi, Hugh Eva, Alan Belward

1. User Requirements and Policy Support UNFCCC & Kyoto Protocol Frank Raes, Peter Bergamaschi, Hugh Eva, Alan Belward Institute for Environment and Sustainability Joint Research Centre European Commssion www.jrc.cec.eu.int ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

2. INTERNATIONAL POLICY FRAMEWORK UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Art. 2: OBJECTIVE ... stabilization greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere … Art. 4: COMMITMENTS … develop … make available national inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks … … promote … research, systematic observation … related to the climate system … … limit its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases … ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

3. INTERNATIONAL POLICY FRAMEWORK Kyoto Protocol under the UNFCCC Art. 3: ... Parties included in Annex I shall … reduce their overall emissions … by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012. Art. 5: … have in place (in 2007) a national system for the estimation of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks … ensure Quality … based on the work of … the IPCC and advice provided by the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice, the Conference of The Parties … shall regularly … revise …methodologies … COP SBSTA IPCC research community Art. 10: … co-operate in scientific … research and promote the maintenance and the development of systematic observations systems … related to the climate system ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

4. EU POLICY FRAMEWORK Implementation of UNFCCC and future Kyoto Protocol DG ENVIRONMENT is in charge DG ENVIRONMENT implements - monitoring and reporting of emission reductions - national system under the KP and related QA/QC programme Monitoring Mechanism for Community CO2 and other Greenhouse Gas Emissions DG XXX implements specific reduction policies in sector XXX DG RESEARCH is delegated to implement - climate change research Framework Programmes - climate observations systems e.g. GMES ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

5. EU “NATIONAL” SYSTEM and QA/QC MS EEA EU=MS DG ENV UNFCCC UNFCCC guidelines JRC EUROSTAT … Research GMES ... ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

6. USER REQUIREMENTS Emission inventories for (UNFCCC) - CO2, ……….. NOx, CO, NMVOC, SO2 Trends of emissions for (less demanding) (KP) - CO2, … Inventories - aggregated at country level - yearly averaged - for a wide range of sectors (35 in total) Inventories must be of high quality: i.e - submitted timely (of year N by 15 April of year N+1) - consistent in time - complete (all sectors, all years, all countries) - comparable (among countries) - accurate (verification with other independent methods) - cost-effective ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

7. UNFCCC Common Reporting Format ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

8. IMPROVING DATA QUALITY • Highest contributors to the overall uncertainty on the EU GHG inventory: • CO2 sink • CH4 and N2O from agriculture • APPROACHES • - Compare and harmonize methodologies of individual countries • - Develop a EU-wide methodology for verification of national and EU emissions inventories • EXAMPLES of JRC activities: • CH4 emissions by Inverse Modeling • Workshop on Inverse Modeling, Oct 2003 • Monitoring of Land Use Change ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

9. CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling a priori data Relative error: 1.00 ± 0.30 Uncertainty: 2 sigma ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

10. CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

11. CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling • offline atmospheric transport model • meteo from ECMWF • global simulation 6o x 4o • zooming 1o x 1o (Europe, …) • http://www.phys.uu.nl/~tm5/ TM5 model grid ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

12. CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling observations: UBA / GAW ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

13. CH4 Emissions by Inverse Modeling posteriori data Units: relative to a priori estimates A priori: 1.00 ± 0.30 Uncertainty: 2 sigma ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

14. JRC Inverse Modeling Workshop • CONCLUSIONS - by scientists (Peter Bergamaschi) • Techniques improved to the point that estimates of national emission are possible for CH4, N2O, HFC’s • Inverse Modeling includes biogenic emissions, which usually are not in the official inventories (e.g. UNFCCC) • Inverse Modeling of CO2 aims at biospheric emissions/sinks estimates; anthropogenic emissions well known • Most advanced studies are based on in-situ measurements; Need for maintaining monitoring stations; set up a European framework • Use of remote sensing is presently a problem as the column concentrations of trace gases (CH4,CO2) don’t have the required precision (< 1%) • Need to integrate in-situ, remote sensing and modeling • Inverse Modeling gives a consistent picture of emissions and atmospheric concentrations ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

15. 3 2 1 probability emission emission emission JRC Inverse Modeling Workshop • CONCLUSIONS - by policy makers • Need independent verification • To be worth the investment IM must have a higher precision than the conventional (bottom-up) approaches • Need for better understanding of the capabilities and costs • Follow workshop in spring 2005 ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

16. 1992 1997 1989 Monitoring De- & Reforestation ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

17. Systematic Observations THE SECOND REPORT ON THE ADEQUACY OF THE GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEMS FOR CLIMATE IN SUPPORT OF THE UNFCCC by the GCOS secretariat for the IPCC http://www.wmo.ch/web/gcos/gcoshome.html april 2003 essential climate variables of high impact on UNFCCC requirements a.o.: Atmospheric composition: CO2, CH4, O3, other long-lived GHG aerosol properties ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004

18. Post Kyoto … ALTERNATIVE CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION STRATEGIES ? Reduction of fossil fuel use and related CO2 emissions remains the primary goal. At present it is politically difficult to implement Evaluate additional ways to reduce global warming, considering that conventional short-lived air pollutants like ozone and black carbon aerosols also have a warming effect, Need to integrate climate change and air pollution policies. ESA Noordwijk 20 Jan 2004