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B. Complex Judgment Tasks

B. Complex Judgment Tasks. Information Integration Tasks Impression Formation How “attractive” is a person? How “good” is an applicant? Complex Prediction Tasks How much will the US economy grow next year? How well will an applicant perform in a job? Lens Model

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B. Complex Judgment Tasks

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  1. B. Complex Judgment Tasks • Information Integration Tasks • Impression Formation • How “attractive” is a person? • How “good” is an applicant? • Complex Prediction Tasks • How much will the US economy grow next year? • How well will an applicant perform in a job? • Lens Model • Averaging vs. Adding of Information

  2. Explicit vs. Implicit Rules(Linear Models vs. Experts) Brunswick’s Lens Model Linear model of observed outcome values: Actuarial Model Linear model of expert predictions: Bootstrap Model - for further information read Slovic & Lichtenstein, OBHDP, 1971, 6, 649-744.

  3. Why don’t we always use actuarial models to predict? (a) Don’t have the data to construct actuarial model. (b) Prediction is not important enough to warrant the trouble. (c) Prediction is important but not repetitive. If made only once of twice - not worth the to build actuarial model. (d) Actuarial prediction based on PAST relationships between predictors and criterion; Won’t be accurate if environment changes. (e) Lacks common-sense cues: Criterion may be influenced by a large number of variables that operate at different points in time and under different circumstances: hard to put all of them into an actuarial model.

  4. Intuitive Expert Judgments Advantages: Solves the problems with actuarial models. (a) Don’t need past data. (b) Can be quick. (c) Can use available time for additional info gathering (d) Can be sensitive to changes in environment (e) Human judge can deal with a large number of ‘common sense cues’

  5. Intuitive Expert Judgments Disadvantages: (a) Inconsistency due to fatigue, boredom, distractions, etc. “To err is human” is true: Computers implementing an actuarial model never do. (b) Because the expert’s “strategy”in using the information provided by predictor variables is unconscious (i.e., intuitive), experts might change their strategy from time to time. (c) Different experts may use different strategies.

  6. Consistency of Intuitive Judgments In Medical Diagnoses:

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