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This article provides an update on the recent evolution, current status, and prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon system. It includes information on recent rainfall conditions, monsoon prediction, and climatology patterns.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP August 29, 2016 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing a mixed pattern over the monsoon region with slightly deficient conditions over parts of central western India, particularly the state of Gujarat, and central eastern India, southern peninsular India, central China, Koreas, Japan, and parts of Papua New Guinea, but above normal elsewhere particularly the Indonesian archipelago and the Philippines.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was also a mixed pattern but with highly deficient rainfall conditions over southern central and southern peninsular India, far northern and eastern China, central and eastern China, Thailand, Malaysia, Koreas, and Japan. Elsewhere, rainfall was at generally at near normal or above normal levels.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, monsoon rainfall was generally deficient across much of the region. Cat 1 Typhoon Lionrock is active, and is forecast to move northwest to move towards northern Japan and further west. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, for the 2016 monsoon season so far, since the 1st of June, the monsoon rainfall has been near normal by about -3 % across the country.
Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days rainfall amounts are showing a mixed pattern over the monsoon region with slightly deficient conditions over parts of central western India, particularly the state of Gujarat, and central eastern India, southern peninsular India, central China, Koreas, Japan, and parts of Papua New Guinea, but above normal elsewhere particularly the Indonesian archipelago and the Philippines. For the past 30 days the rainfall situation was also a mixed pattern but with highly deficient rainfall conditions over southern central and southern peninsular India, far northern and eastern China, central and eastern China, Thailand, Malaysia, Koreas, and Japan. Elsewhere, rainfall was at generally at near normal or above normal levels. In this past week, monsoon rainfall was generally deficient across much of the region. Cat 1 Typhoon Lionrock is active, and is forecast to move northwest to move towards northern Japan and further west. According to the India Met. Dept. (IMD), as of today, for the 2016 monsoon season so far, since the 1st of June, the monsoon rainfall hovers near normal with about -3 % across the country In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS is predicting generally below normal rainfall over much of the region, except for above normal rainfall over far northeastern China and Koreas in the first week.
