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Sistema operazionale per il Canton Ticino MODULO Piccoli Bacini

Sistema operazionale per il Canton Ticino MODULO Piccoli Bacini. Methodic – Step 1 – PREVAH2D -> 200 m. Updated daily in standard operation mode Updated hourly if pre-defined thresholds are exceeded within the Domain (C2 / Radar QPE) Latest initial conditions of:

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Sistema operazionale per il Canton Ticino MODULO Piccoli Bacini

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  1. Sistemaoperazionale per il Canton Ticino MODULO PiccoliBacini

  2. Methodic – Step 1 – PREVAH2D -> 200 m • Updated daily in standard operation mode • Updated hourly if pre-defined thresholds are • exceeded within the Domain (C2 / Radar QPE) • Latest initial conditions of: • Soil moisture deficit • Interception storage deficit • SUZ, storage for runoff generation from the unsaturated zone • Total baseflow • Snow storage (?) Rain-on-snow?

  3. Methodic – Step 1 – PREVAH2D -> 200 m -> FCP, 26.4.13

  4. Methodic – Step 1 – PREVAH2D -> 200 m -> SUZ, 2.5.13

  5. Methodic – Step 2 – QPE/QPF • QPF by COSMO2 and COSMO7 • C2 8 times per day, C7 3 times per day • QPE: interpolated precipitation, radar QPE, CPC-Product • Persistence: 2-3 hours • Time step -> initially 1h, setup to go down to 5-Minutes

  6. Vorregenindex CPC – 26.4.13 (l) und 2.5.13 (r)

  7. Regensummen (30 Tage) CPC –2.5.13 (r)

  8. Vergleic – Pluvio – CPC – QPF - REAL

  9. Methodic – Step 3 – Network-Cumulation • Cumulate MCH Rhires for sub-areas • at 50 meters resolution • Sub-areas to be defined. Not to large • (flow-time < 3 hours) • IDF for every pixel with area larger • than a threshold needed to be defined • (e.g. 1 km2, 400 pixels at 50 m resolution)

  10. Methodic – Step 5 – Going to hydrology • Hourly time step (later set-up also for 5 Minutes time-step) • Estimation of 0° Isotherm (C2,C7) ->Tobin et al, J. Hydromet. 2012 • Assimilate PREVAH initial conditions and run a simplified soil module • (later -> use of Scherrer et al. Methodology) • Rules for different land uses • Time convolution according to ISO-Chrones • Integration for next 12-24 hours • Output as specific discharge • Thresholds for every pixel > 1 km2. How-to?

  11. Target-Areas and Alerts: • Discussion on Target areas • TOCE? • Cuccio? • Lombardia? • Criteria to issue alerts for target • areas • Cumulated rainfall alerts • CLEPS: 1d, 2d, 3d, 4d • C7: 1h, 2h, 3h, 6h, 12h, 24h, 48h • C2: 1h, 2h, 3h, 6h, 12h • QPF, PLUVIO, CPC: 1h, 2h, 3h, 6h, 12h • - Hydological alerts?

  12. Methodic – Step 4 – IDF • IDF at 200 m resolution -> selection if and where high resolution • computation is needed • Lead time 24h-120h -> Low-Resolution (200 m) -> Alfieri et al. (2011) • CLEPS • - Lead time 24h-72h -> Low-Resolution (200 m) -> Alfieri et al. (2011) • C7 • Lead time < 24h -> High resolution, selection of high resolution-region • according to QPF/C2 and low-resolution • Alerts based on IDF for “Upstream Precipitation” (T2,T5,T10), • for both high and low resolution

  13. Schedule: Meeting 18.01.2013 – Bellinzona, 13:00-16:00 • Welcome (WSL-UCA) • Description of the task (WSL-UCA) • Envisaged methodic -> MSc Feb-July 2013 (WSL) • Discussion on the target areas (UCA) • Timeline for operational framework (WSL) • Intermezzo: “Operational Forecast System” (Edric-WSL) • Next Meeting • Varia

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