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Demand Forecasts for 2006-2008 for HIV/AIDS ARV formulations

Demand Forecasts for 2006-2008 for HIV/AIDS ARV formulations. Clinton Foundation HIV/AIDS Initiative November 7, 2005. AGENDA FOR DISCUSSION. Methodology Initial Results. Forecasting Methodology.

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Demand Forecasts for 2006-2008 for HIV/AIDS ARV formulations

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  1. Demand Forecasts for 2006-2008 for HIV/AIDS ARV formulations Clinton Foundation HIV/AIDS Initiative November 7, 2005 09.08.05 Projection Slides v2

  2. AGENDA FOR DISCUSSION • Methodology • Initial Results 09.08.05 Projection Slides v2

  3. Forecasting Methodology • For all projections, the baseline represents actual treatment numbers, as current as possible. In most cases, this data has been updated as of June 2005, from countries directly and/or WHO. • Demand estimates are based on national protocols. Protocol and patient distribution are actual data for all consortium and high-volume non-consortium countries (together, these represent 85% of total global volume). For the remaining countries, generalized regional profiles have been compiled based on WHO guidelines. • Country data (current treatment numbers, targets and protocols) comes from CHAI country teams and regional managers, working closely with Ministries of Health 09.08.05 Projection Slides v2

  4. Forecast Scenarios • HIGH – Country achieves a percentage coverage of their national ART need. Percentage is adjustable, with the default set to 80%. • MEDIUM– Country achieves a percentage of their self-defined target. Percentage is adjustable, with the default is set to 80%. In a small number of non-consortium countries, where country targets were unavailable, a percentage of ART need is assumed instead. • LOW– Current monthly patient accrual data is projected going forward without any additional growth in the rate of accrual assumed. All scenarios are adjustable on a country by country basis for CHAI consortium countries and high volume non-consortium countries, making up 85% of the total volume. For the remaining countries, the scenario can be adjusted on an aggregated basis. 09.08.05 Projection Slides v2

  5. 66% d4t+3TC+NVP End of Year 1 6% d4t+3TC+EFV 10% End of Year 2 10% AZT+3TC+NVP 10% End of Year 3 10% 10% AZT+3TC+EFV End of Year 4 10% 4% ABC+ddI+NFV End of Year 5 10% % Adult 2004 10,000 100% Q2 05 20,000 100% Q4 05 40,920 97% Q205 2004 2006 2007 2008 2006 100,000 97% 2007 163,000 84% 270,400 130,400 80,000 10,000 Total Patients 20,000 2008 338,000 76% 109,536 205,504 77,600 10,000 Total Adults 20,000 20,864 64,896 2,400 Total Children 0 0 Country Snapshot (Ethiopia) INPUTS People on Treatment & Country Targets (Country Data) Treatment Failure Rates (CHAI Assumptions) Protocols (Country Data) CALCULATIONS Demand for each Regimen Medium Case Scenario – Assumes 80% of Country Target Achieved 1st Line : # on regimen in year 2 = (1 – treatment failure rate)] * [% on reg in year 1 * # in year 1 + [% on reg in year 1] * new patients in year 2 2nd Line : # on regimen in year 2 = [total % on all 1st line reg in yr 1* [% on reg in year 1 + treatment failure rate * % to start on this regimen ]] * # in yr 1 + [% on regimen in yr 1 * new patients in yr 2] 09.08.05 Projection Slides v2

  6. AGENDA FOR DISCUSSION • Methodology • Initial Results 09.08.05 Projection Slides v2

  7. ART access in developing countries could grow from 1M in 2005 to up to 5M by 2008 In the past 2 years, treatment has doubled globally There is 56% variance between the scenarios 09.08.05 Projection Slides v2

  8. 80% of current volume is driven by 11 countries 09.08.05 Projection Slides v2

  9. Uptake of 2nd line formulations is expected to vary by region 2nd line* volume as % of totalvolume procured LAC Asia & EE Global Africa *2nd line assumes all formulations other stavudine, zidovudine, lamivudine, nevirapine and efavirenz 09.08.05 Projection Slides v2

  10. CHAI’s medium scenario falls between UNAIDS’ High and Low cases Patients on ART (millions) 6.6 5.2 4.1 3.1 2.3 Note: UNAIDS Low scenario figures are estimates based on the chart, “Total Income Demand in Low and Middle Income Countries.” Actual figures will be substituted as soon as available. 09.08.05 Projection Slides v2

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