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Floods and other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project

Floods and other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project. 1. Ad de Roo Jutta Thielen Ben Gouweleeuw Gian Franchello Johan Van Der Knijff Hannah Cloke Guido Schmuck. Floods: potential actions. JRC: European Flood Forecasting. Increase flood warning time European Flood Alert System

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Floods and other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project

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  1. Floods and other Weather Driven Natural Hazards Project 1 Ad de Roo Jutta Thielen Ben Gouweleeuw Gian Franchello Johan Van Der Knijff Hannah Cloke Guido Schmuck

  2. Floods: potential actions JRC: European Flood Forecasting • Increase flood warning time • European Flood Alert System • 0-10 day leadtime; pre-warning to MS authorities • e.g. Elbe authorities: 24 hour forecast • Decrease flood risk • Technical measures • reservoirs • polders / retention areas • increase floodplain storage • increase dyke heights • Environmental measures • land use planning • catchment: (reforestation / afforestation, set aside etc) • floodplain: re-allocation of flood prone settlements • (long-term: combat climate change..) JRC: Scenario studies Oder & Meuse (IKSO, OderRegio)

  3. TRANSNATIONAL CATCHMENTS JRC Catchment Information System August 2002

  4. LISFLOOD system • Meteo data • ECMWF • DWD • DMI… River basin management River basin management LISFLOOD • JRC European Data • Soil, Surface, • river catchment • system, … Flood simulation & forecasting • Member States data • River dimensions, • Alert levels

  5. The LISFLOOD modelling system • LISFLOOD-WB Water balance model initial conditions • LISFLOOD-FS Flood simulation model scenarios • LISFLOOD-FF Flood forecasting model forecasting • LISFLOOD-FP Flood Inundation model inundation extent Floodplain-scale Catchment-scale

  6. Flood Plain Model seconds time step Waterbalance Model daily time step Flood Model Hourly time step Spatial Planning

  7. LISFLOOD : a distributed rainfall-runoff-routing model • Division Rainfall/Snow • Interception • Evapotranspiration • Leaf drainage • Snow melt • Glacier melt • Soil freezing • Infiltration • Vertical soil moisture redistribution • Sub-surface lateral flow • Groundwater recharge • Groundwater flow • Infiltration excess overland flow • Saturation excess overland flow • River channel flow (kinematic and diffusion/dynamic wave) • Reservoir operations • Retention storage (polders

  8. LISFLOOD input and output examples DEM SourceAreas Land Cover LIS FLOOD Discharge Coefficient Soil Type Precipitation

  9. LISFLOOD: Main Principles I • Rainfall: inverse distance interpolation. Altitude correction. • Snowmelt: degree-day method. Altitude correction for Temp. • Interception: storage approach, based on LAI, using equations of Von-Hoyningen-Huene, Merriam and Aston • Daily extra-terrestrial radiation: Angot • Daily incoming solar radiation: Angstrom, Supit or Hargraeves • Evapotranspiration: Penman-Monteith, using dynamic LAI based on satellite images

  10. LISFLOOD: Main Principles II • Soil Freezing: degree-day method (Molnau & Bissell) • Infiltration: Smith-Parlange equation • Saturation excess overland flow • Soil water redistribution between 2 soil layers: Equilibrium method, using van Genuchten hydraulic conductivity curves • Subsurface lateral flow • Percolation to groundwater: based on (Un)saturated conductivity of soil layer 2 and Darcy • Groundwater: two-store approach, routing along LDD

  11. LISFLOOD: Main Principles III • Routing: kinematic wave and Mannings equation for overland flow and channel flow along LDD; dynamic wave for large rivers • Floodplain and river cross section dimensions are used • Reservoirs simulated with user-defined parameters for each specified reservoir • Retention areas simulated with user-defined parameters for each specified retention area

  12. Use of satellite images for land use type and soil cover IRS-WIFS used to obtain seasonal variation in cover for each Corine land cover type

  13. Soil maps 1:250.000 Oder Depth to bedrock Topsoil texture

  14. Soils: how we use them in LISFLOOD Inputs: Look-up tables (HYPRES et al): Infiltration parameters infiltration topsoil texture topsoil Van Genuchten parameters h/v transport subsoil texture subsoil Van Genuchten parameters h/v transport depth to bedrock water storage Parent material Groundwater parameters groundwater

  15. LISFLOOD outputs

  16. LISFLOOD-WB: Borgharen (Meuse, NL) 1993-1995

  17. The LISFLOOD model: a tool for River Basin Management Original land cover map Reforestation scenario Simulates the effects of scenarios on floods and the water balance: • Changing land use in upstream areas: • reforestation • deforestation • set aside • urban growth • Consequences of climate change • Modifying river and floodplain dimensions • Building water retention areas • Building water reservoirs 20% reduction in peak flood EGEO UNIT: NATURAL HAZARDS PROJECT

  18. Evaluation of flood defense plans Oder-LISFLOODreportJuly 2002close cooperationwith MS and IKSO, includingaccession countries

  19. Scenario results Oder: Discharge changes 2001-2030(if flood action plan is carried out)

  20. TOWARDS A EUROPEAN FLOOD ALERT SYSTEM 21 Link to ECMWF established Flood forecasts for all major rivers: 10 day weather forecasts: Additional data rainfall temperature + LISFLOOD MODEL 10-day forecast Meuse: 20-30 January 1995 with uncertainty range discharge forecast Example of a warning report

  21. TheEuropeanFlood Forecasting System 10-day rainfall forecast per hour 22-01-1995 31-01-1995 DMI 0-72 ECMWF 73-240

  22. The European Flood Forecasting System: zoom . 10-day forecast hourly discharge: 22-01-1995 31-01-1995 LISFLOOD model

  23. EFAS team tasks European Flood Alert System : EFAS daily quick check on Rnf, also other rnf sources, WB, Q, news, Q, critical levels, Persistency to previous days, Keep logbook NO ALERT ALERT Automatic model simulation (At present: over night. Soon twice a day.) Qobs Pobs Forecasts ECMWF DWD 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 • get overview from other data sources • Monitor carefully the second simulation and check persistency • Discuss flood risk and how to proceed further with team • Unofficially inform NWA contact • In case crisis becomes certain contact DSS • in the morning check midnight run, and check status of morning run • keep logbook • Validate results if possible • - Assess scores and improve system • EFAS server • Data conversion • Data storage … Automatic 24h waterbalance On ALERT 10-day forecasts

  24. Meuse (Borgharen) 19-01-1995 / 28-01-1995 P ECMWF Q LISFLOOD 1km

  25. Meuse (upstream Borgharen) 20-01-1995 / 29-01-1995 P ECMWF (old EPS system) Q LISFLOOD 1km

  26. Forecast probability (Meuse-Borgharen 950120)

  27. Forecast probability (Meuse-Borgharen 950122)

  28. Oder flood 1997: Miedonia (upper-Odra) 970702 970703 970705 970704

  29. Flood Pre-Warning for 20-01-95 until 30-01-95 Example 0: all clear 1: flood watch 2: flood warning 3: severe flood warning

  30. Outlook: • Flood modelling: • 1:250;000 data for Elbe + Danube • Validation for Danube and Elbe • Scenarios • European Flood Alert System • Drought forecasting • Using seasonal weather forecasts • Model modifications where needed • Irrigation • Landslide forecasting • Model modifications where needed

  31. For more information:ad.de-roo@jrc.itEuropean CommissionDG Joint Research CentreIES - Ispra - Italy

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