Modeling Life-History Traits as Functional Responses to Environmental Conditions

1. Modeling Life-History Traits as Functional Responses to Environmental Conditions AN ADAPTATION OF THE SHIRAZ MODEL FOR ONCORHYNCHUS MYKISS 2008 Steelhead Management Meeting March 4–6 2008

2. Lucy Flynn Ray Hilborn Brad Thompson Dave Beauchamp Craig Busack

3. Modeling Objective Human actions Habitat response Fish response VSP criteria ΔN e.g., Bartz et al. 2006 e.g., Scheuerell et al. 2006 ΔP Population dynamics Habitat management Habitat Conditions ΔS Road decommissioning Change in levels of fine sediment Change in egg-to-fry survival ΔD

4. Map source: http://www.sharedsalmonstrategy.org Puget Sound Western WA

5. Ward et al. (2006) – shift in smolt age after habitat restoration and nutrient addition Thrower et al. (2004) – development of resident population from anadromous Chris Frederiksen (Biologist, Yakama Nation; personal comment) – steady increase in proportion of females amongst anadromous fish Life-History Plasticity in Steelhead

6. Effect of Environment on Life-History Trajectories

7. Mangel and Satterthwaite 2006

8. Multistage Beverton-Holt Model Moussalli and Hilborn 1986

9. Multistage Beverton-Holt Model Moussalli and Hilborn 1986 S R1 R2

10. p,c = f(habitat conditions) Scheuerell et al. 2006

11. Resident & Anadromous O. mykiss Genetics Seamons et al. (2004) – 39% of juvenile steelhead could not be assigned one parent, and 88% of those could not be assigned a male parent. Araki et al. (2007)– “high levels of reproductive contribution of nonanadromous parents to anadromous offspring when anadromous run size is small” Observation McMillan et al. (2007) – 14.5% of attempted matings with wild anadromous females were by wild resident males.

12. Detailed Tracking in Model Life-history stages include the periods of time between each decision-making point O. mykiss born of anadromous mothers and those born of resident mothers are tracked separately. Males and females are tracked separately The average body size of each of fish is tracked using a bioenergetics model.

13. Life-History Stage G Life-History Stage G G Life-History Stage G Life-History Stage G Area Area

14. Groups within life-history stages identified by Area of birth Area of current residence Year of birth Sex Life-history stage History Life-history trajectory Spatial history Somatic growth (tracked only through juvenile stages) Detailed tracking

15. Emphasize the four categories of stages Note that the key concern is freshwater stages…

18. Issue: Ecologically Overlapping Stages Figure from Mangel and Satterthwaite 2006

19. Competitive Overlap Percent Habitat Saturation (PHS; Grant et al. 1998) Effective number of competitors (E)

20. Functional Relationships Poster!

21. Thanks… WDFW: Anne Marshall, Jim Scott, Brett Barkdull, Tasha Geiger, Mat Gillum, Thom Johnson, Randy Cooper, Joanne Schuett-Hames, Hal Michael NMFS: Krista Bartz, James Battin, Jeff Hard, Beth Sanderson, George Pess, Jon Honea, Mark Scheuerell, Kelly Burnett, Pete Lawson UW: Todd Seamons, Tom Quinn, Willy Eldridge Others: Chris Frederiksen, Bill McMillan, John McMillan, Ray Beamesderfer, Bill Graeber, Yetta Jager, Larry Lestelle, Steven Ralph, Pamela Woods, Bob Vadas