WORKSHOP Combating Climate Change: National Commitments and Activities

1. WORKSHOP Combating Climate Change: National Commitments and Activities Measures for Abatement of GHG Emissions in Energy Sector T. Bosevski, G. Kanevce, M. Todorovski N. Krstanovski, A. Causevski 22 March 2002, Skopje

2. Activity level [kt/year] of different sectors in 1998

3. GHG Abatement for the Energy Sector - Electricity Production Electric power system expansion planning: WASP – Wien Automatic System Planning (Electric power system expansion planning) VALORAGUA – Valorization of water - Portuguese (Simulation of a mixed hydro-thermal power system used to enhance the WASP analysis) OPTIM – Model developed by the study team members (Detailed simulation of a mixed hydro-thermal power system used to enhance the WASP analysis)

4. Basic Data and Existing Plants Planning period: 2001-2030 Electricity demand: 7000 GWh, 1267 MW (year 2001) Annual growth rates: 3.75%, 3.25% and 2.75% by decades Simulation type: montly basis, three hydroconditions Electricity production (year 2000)

5. Energy Resources Solid fuels Suvodol (66 mill. t - status 2001, 10 years) Oslomej (14 mill. t - status 2001, 12 years) Additional reserves Suvodol (second layer, about 20 mill. t, there is no mining project) Brod-Gneotino (surface layer, about 40 mill. t, there is no mining project) Liquid fuels Refinery OKTA (2.5 mill. t crude oil/year) Oil pipeline Skopje-Thessalonike Natural gas Gas pipeline (800 mill. m3/year), possible extension to 1200 mill. m3/year Renewable resouces Geothermal (80 GWh /year) Wood (average 930 000 m3/year , 3000 GWh)

6. New Plants Hydro plants under construction: Kozjak & Matka 2 Hydro plants candidates: HYD1: Galiste & Cebren HYD2: B. Most, Veles & Gradec Extensions of the existing mines Reconstruction of existing thermal power plants (during extended scheduled maintenance) Thermal plants candidates: CCC 180 - cogeneration combined cycle, 180 MW, 60% eff. CC 270 - combined cycle, 270 MW, 57.6 % eff. AP 600 - advanced nuclear plant, 600 MW, 33.4 % eff.

7. Electric Power System Expansion Scenarios Baseline scenario: Business as usual First mitigation scenario: more efficient use of the hydropotential (conversion of classical into pump-storage hydroplants ) Second mitigation scenario: pump-storage hydroplants and introduction of mixed fuel in the existing thermal plants Bitola and Oslomej Revision of the second mitigation scenario: update of the initial conditions and main assumptions (stagnation of the consumption, study period 2003-2030, annual growth rates 3.5%, 3% & 2.5% by decades, two-year delay of Kozjak & Matka 2, three-year delay of CCC 180)

8. Optimal Expansion Plans

9. Electricity production by fuel types (Baseline scenario)

10. Electricity production by fuel types (Revised second mitigation scenario)

11. Lignite consumption for electricity production

12. Integral lignite consumption for electricity production 182 mill. t 129 mill. t

13. Residual fuel oil consumption for electricity production

14. Natural gas consumption for electricity production

15. Equivalent CO2 emissions from electricity production by fuel types (Baseline scenario)

16. Equivalent CO2 emissions from electricity production by fuel types (Revised second mitigation scenario)

17. Specific CO2-equivalent emissions from electricity production

18. Abatement Costs

19. Heat Production Primary-energy sources consumption for heat production Contribution of different primary-energy sources for annual heat production in Macedonia in 2000

20. Heat Production Scenarios All scenarios are based on the finding from the corresponding electricity production scenarios The forecasts for fuel consumption were made following the previous studies (average annual growth rate 3.7%) Natural gas was given priority taking into account the limit of 1,200 mill. m3 per year. It was assumed that the large heat production units will alternatively use natural gas or residual fuel oil.

21. Primary-energy sources consumption for heat production

22. Natural gas consumption for electricity and heat production

23. Comparison of the Heat Production Scenarios

24. Equivalent CO2 Emissions from Heat Production by Fuel Types

25. Transport Fuel consumption

26. Baseline Scenario for the Road Transport

27. Baseline Scenario for the Air Transport

28. Mitigation Scenarios for the Transport Sector Road transport - Vehicles efficiency improvement - Reduction of vehicle-kilometers Rail transport - Completion of the electrification Air transport - Improvement of the efficiency - Improvement of ariport operation (reduction of waiting time for landing approval)

29. Total CO2 Emissions for the Transport Sector

30. Conclusions Electricity production: - More efficient use of the hydropotential (pump-storage hydroplants) - Introduction of liquid fuel in the existing thermal plants which yield significant reduction of CH4 emissions - The new thermal power plants using natural gas are with high efficiency - Keeping the fossil fuels as a dominant the nuclear plant is postponed to the year 2024 Heat - Replacement of the old heating plants on liquid fuel with a new ones on natural gas Transport - Promotion of cleaner and more energy efficient vehicle applying variety of tax, custom and regulatory measures - Improvement of the road infrastructure