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Assumptions for 2005/2006 Objective Capability Determination

Assumptions for 2005/2006 Objective Capability Determination. NEPOOL PSPC Dec. 20, 2004. Needs PSPC Discussion. Covered in Presentation. Assumptions List. Objective Capability Assumptions. Capacity Existing capacity will be equal to those assets and ratings noted in 2005 CELT Report

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Assumptions for 2005/2006 Objective Capability Determination

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  1. Assumptions for 2005/2006 Objective Capability Determination NEPOOL PSPC Dec. 20, 2004

  2. Needs PSPC Discussion Covered in Presentation Assumptions List Power Supply Planning Committee

  3. Objective Capability Assumptions • Capacity • Existing capacity will be equal to those assets and ratings noted in 2005 CELT Report • Capacity additions based on ISO-NE recommended units and PSPC discussions • Ridgewood Generation (8.4 MW) • Berkshire Wind (15 MW) – For PSPC discussion • Kendall ST 3 and CT Reactivation – For PSPC discussion • Capacity attrition to include those with RC approved 18.4 applications for deactivation or retirement Power Supply Planning Committee

  4. Objective Capability Assumptions • OP-4 Actions 9 and 10 • Total of 45 MW • Verified with Operations that capacity is not enrolled in ISO-NE Demand Response Program Power Supply Planning Committee

  5. Objective Capability Assumptions • Minimum Operating Reserve • OP-4 Action 12 • Modeled in Westinghouse as –200 MW • Verified with Operations (???) Power Supply Planning Committee

  6. Objective Capability Assumptions • Load Forecast • 2005/2006 load forecast input into the Reliability Model will be consistent with the 2005 CELT Forecast Power Supply Planning Committee

  7. Objective Capability Assumptions • Unit Availability Options • 5-year Average Using EFOR • Using EFORd values • “Adjusted” EFOR values for months with missing data • NERC Class Average EFORd values for months with missing data Power Supply Planning Committee

  8. Objective Capability Assumptions • Preliminary Data (Jan-00 through Oct-04) • Pre-SMD EFORd data assumes NERC class average • Summer MW per Dec-04 SCC Report Power Supply Planning Committee

  9. Objective Capability Assumptions • ISO-NE Demand Response Program - Recommended Assumptions • Only reliability programs used in determination • Real-Time 30-Minute Demand Response • Real-Time 2-Hour Demand Response • Real-Time Profiled Response • Assets enrolled and ready to respond as of Jan. 1, 2005 will be included Power Supply Planning Committee

  10. Objective Capability Assumptions • ISO-NE Demand Response Program • EFOR modeling of assets based on results of August 20, 2004 performance audit • EFOR = 1 – (Interruption MW / Total Enrolled MW) Power Supply Planning Committee

  11. Objective Capability Assumptions • ISO-NE Demand Response Program Power Supply Planning Committee

  12. Demand Response(as of November 30, 2004) * SWCT assets are included in CT values and are not included in Total Power Supply Planning Committee

  13. Objective Capability Assumptions • 5% Voltage Reduction amount to be used in OC determination • For further PSPC discussion Power Supply Planning Committee

  14. Objective Capability Assumptions • Tie Benefits • For further PSPC discussion Power Supply Planning Committee

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