Abstract

1. SOME STUDIES IN REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL AIR QUALITY MODELING, CLIMATE CHANGE AND RELATED HEALTH EFFECTS Robert Huchins1**, Allan Maina1**, Francis Tuluri1*, R. Suseela Reddy1, and James Ejiwale11 College of Science, Engineering and Technology, Jackson State University, Mississippi, USA** Student Contributors*Faculty Advisor and Author to whom correspondence should be addressed:francis.tuluri@jsums.edu (IEEE Geoscience And Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), July 24 -29, 2011, Canada)

2. Abstract • Abstract:Industrial emissions are one of the most important environmental issue that can affect climate change directly, and health indirectly. Failure to understand the effects of industrial emissions lead to dangerous precedence to our future generations. Industries are also the sources of pollutants to the atmosphere such as sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter (PM 2.5 micron), and ozone. The industrial emissions can contribute to the environmental issues like climate variability (regional/global) due to elevated levels of greenhouse gases, or acidic rainfall. Climate change affects living beings – people, plants, and animals. In human beings, health related diseases like asthma are of much concern in addition to climate sensitive diseases such as malaria and smog. We investigate to understand the interplay between industrial pollutants, climate change and health. In the present study, air quality modeling system (NCAR WRF CHEM) is run over a pilot test industrial site in the Jackson mesoscale domain, and is used as a tool for evaluating the impact of different emission sources. The study shows that during June 25-28, 2008, the industrial emissions suggest a high Ozone diurnal cycle peaking at around 20 hr UTC (14 hr local), but PM 2.5 fluctuates over a period of time and it is not well correlated with Ozone production. However, the increase in PM 2.5 may have influenced an increase in Ozone activity. In this region, the temperature variation over the period 1895-2008 is not monotonous but shows positive trend with warming as well as negative trend with cooling. The results obtained here are based on a regional scale level variation as against the global positive trends. The observations are discussed in relation to the associated mechanisms.

3. Motivation An episode is observed in the Jackson, MS area on June 24-26, 2008 High levels of Ozone peaking 50 ppbV Global climate is sensitive to human activities, and the changes may lead to influencing the air quality among other effects. Industrial emissions are one of the most important environmental issue that can affect climate change directly, and health indirectly. Failure to understand the effects of industrial emissions will lead to dangerous precedence to our future generations.

4. Objective Modeling studies will improve our ability to predict climate extremes, so that we can better adapt to climate change impacts and will greatly help in improving the climate models for precise prediction of future climate changes globally and regionally and to assess their impacts. to understand the interplay between industrial pollutants, climate change and health. A pilot study using air quality modeling system (NCAR WRF CHEM) has been undertaken for evaluating the impacts of industrial emissions and sources over Jackson – a metropolitan city in Mississippi, USA. WRF-CHEM model is run over the region at six hourly periods during June 25-28, 2008.

5. Solar Radiative Transfers A representative diagram summarizing the interplay among solar radiation, air quality, and the environment is shown in Figure 1 (NOAA-CREST, 2008). Industries are also the sources of pollutants to the atmosphere such as sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter (PM2.5 micron), and ozone. The industrial emissions can contribute to the environmental issues like climate variability (regional/global) due to elevated levels of greenhouse gases, or acidic rainfall. Climate change affects living beings – people, plants, and animals. In human beings, health related diseases like asthma are of much concern in addition to climate sensitive diseases such as malaria and smog.

6. Greenhouse Effect The greenhouse effect is a warming process that balances Earth's cooling processes. During this process, sunlight passes through Earth's atmosphere as short-wave radiation. Some of the radiation is absorbed by the planet's surface. As Earth's surface is heated, it emits long wave radiation toward the atmosphere.

7. Critical Pollutants: Ozone, PM As a photochemical oxidant and major component of smog, ozone (O3) is formed through a complex serial of photochemical reactions between precursor emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (Nox). Ozone and its precursors can be transported for long distances resulting in an elevated ozone concentration occurring at the remote sites where no evidently local emission resources are identified. To monitor the mitigation of ozone exceedance, it is very necessary to investigate the pollutant sources that are determined not only by photochemical reactions whose products are dependent on precursor emissions in that area but also by long-range transport.

8. Health concerns Human beings are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns (for example, more intense and frequent extreme events) and indirectly through changes in water, air, food quality and quantity, ecosystems, agriculture, and economy. At this early stage the effects are small but are projected to progressively increase in all countries and regions as given by IPCC. Based on existing quantitative studies, WHO has identified several climate–health relationships in a range of climate-sensitive health outcomes including: cardiovascular diseases, diarrhea, malaria, inland and coastal flooding, and malnutrition, estimated the morbidity and mortality caused by human-induced climate change for the years 2000- 2030.

9. WRF-Chem Flowchart

10. Model Configuration • WRF-CHEM model is run over the region at six hourly periods during June 25-28, 2008 • Data was taken from UCAR’s NCEP Global Analyses • Domain 1: 36 km; Domain 2: 12 km; centered over Jackson; • Vertical Grid Spacing: 57 layers • Meteorology • Radiation: GSFC-SW and RRTM • Cumulus: Kin-Fritsch • Microphysics: Turned off • PBL: YSU • Soil/Surface: NOAH (Monin-Obukov) • Chemistry. • Gas-Phase Mechanism: RADM2 • Aerosol Module: MADE/SORGAM • Initial conditions: Horizontally homogeneous • Emissions: TCEQ for use

11. Region of Interest: WRF-Chem air quality modeling system (NCAR WRF CHEM) is run a pilot test industrial site in the Jackson is taken as the mesoscale domain.

12. Observations • The simulations predict a high Ozone diurnal cycle peaking (50 ppbV) at around 20 hr UTC (14 hr local). • But over a period of time, the model also predicts that the finer particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration is negatively correlated with the Ozone production and shows a fluctuation with a dip (about 10 ug/m3). • In the later period, Ozone and PM2.5 are positively correlated. The results will be discussed in the light of photochemistry and air dispersion mechanisms.

13. Results • Air quality modeling system (NCAR WRF CHEM) is run for 72 hrs (during June 25-28, 2008 over a pilot test industrial site in the Jackson mesoscale domain. • The study shows a high Ozone diurnal cycle peaking (50 ppbV) at around 20 hr UTC (14 hr local) • PM2.5 concentration fluctuates (10 – 25 ug/m3), and its correlation with Ozone is not consistent through out the 72 hr period of time • The model also shows a steady ozone diurnal variation, however an increase in PM2.5 may have influenced an increase in Ozone as well • The pollutant PM2.5 is originated by the neighboring point sources (industries) and mobile sources. The concentration of PM2.5 over the region depends on the meteorological conditions

14. Discussion During the period of study, the model predicts at around 20 hrs UTC (14 hrs local) a strong diurnal Ozone variation peaking 50 ppbV due to photo-dissociation. During the first 24 hrs on 25th June, the model also predicted a weak diurnal variation of PM2.5 with a dip in the concentration (about 10 ug/m3). Further, Ozone and PM2.5 are negatively correlated (r = -0.66) due to strong dispersion in PM2.5. In the next 48 hrs, Ozone and PM 2.5 are positively correlated (r = 0.58) suggesting absence of dispersion corresponding to calm winds. While the formation of Ozone is independent of PM2.5, an increase in PM2.5 may be influencing an increase in Ozone production because of increase in precursors.

15. Other Mechanisms Several other mechanisms may be considered for an increase in Ozone activity. An association between tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations and temperature has been demonstrated from measurements in outdoor smog chambers and from measurements in ambient air [7, 8]. Numerous ambient studies done over more than a decade have reported that episodes of high temperatures characterize seasonally high O3 years [8, 9]. In general, an increase in atmospheric temperature accelerates photochemical reaction rates in the atmosphere and increases the rate at which tropospheric O3 and other oxidants (e.g., hydroxyl radicals) are produced. However, O3 levels do not always increase with an increase in temperature (e.g., when the ratio of volatile compounds (VOCs) to Nitrogen oxide (NOx) is low).

16. Effects on Ozone Ozone is expected to be influenced by wind speed because lower wind speeds should lead to reduced ventilation and the potential for greater buildup of O3 and its precursors. Abnormally high temperatures are frequently associated with high barometric pressure, stagnant circulation, and suppressed vertical mixing resulting from subsidence [10], all of which may contribute to elevated O3 levels. Increases in water vapor increase the potential for O3 formation [11], as do frequent or intense high-pressure systems. Climate change could also reduce O3 concentrations. A more vigorous hydrologic cycle could lead to an increase in cloudy days. More cloud cover, especially in the morning hours, could diminish reaction rates and thus lower O3 formation.

17. Effects on VOC High temperatures cause increased VOC evaporative emissions when people fuel and run motor vehicles. For example, an increase of 10°C can cause over a 2-fold increase in both VOC and NO biogenic emissions [12]. Higher outdoor temperatures will reduce the demand for heating services during winter and increase the demand for cooling services during summer. To the extent that these services are provided by fossil fuel combustion, emissions of associated pollutants, such as CO, NOx, and VOCs will change. However, the overall net effect on future emissions, after taking into account future emissions controls, is unclear.

18. Effects of Meteorological Fields Many of the factors that affect O3 formation also influence acid deposition [11, 13]. Higher temperatures accelerate the oxidation rates of SO2 and NOx to sulfuric and nitric acids, increasing the potential for acid deposition. If climate change results in a more vigorous hydrologic cycle and increased cloud cover, this may reduce rates of transformation from SO2 to acidic materials, thus reducing the potential for acid deposition. Changes in circulation and precipitation patterns will affect transport of acidic materials, which in turn will determine the geographic location of acid deposition [11, 14]. Local, regional, and national air quality levels, therefore, will be partially determined by changes in circulation and precipitation patterns (13, 14]. Gery et al. [6] examined the effects of increased temperature and decreased stratospheric O3 on tropospheric O3 formation in 15 separate combinations of city and meteorological episodes. The temperature effect (holding stratospheric O3 constant) was found to increase ground-level O3 by about 2- 4% for a 2°C increase and by about 5-10% for a 5°C increase.

19. Hypothesis continued: Possible Mechanisms for the Temperature Trends To substantiate the findings, for the future work we are intending to do the modeling results for other locations in Mississippi. Also, to help the mitigation of ozone exceedance, it is very necessary to investigate the pollutant sources that are determined not only by photochemical reactions whose products are dependent on precursor emissions in that area but also by long-range transport.

20. Regional Climate Variability • Not many studies have been reported in the literature on the regional climate variability in temperatures over the United States of America • global warming for effects of CO2 • global scale trends observed (Hansen, 2007; Robinson, 2007). • In the present study, we investigate these aspects in long term regional trends in temperatures over for Jackson, Mississippi region the period 1895 – 2008. • To see the temperature dependence on the climate variability, temperature data were collected from the NOAA climate Diagnostic Center. Trend analyses were performed using statistical methods and shown in Figure 2.

21. Methodology • Mathematical Computations • using linear trend and multiple regressional statistical analyses of south central states (Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia) of USA • Divide the total period into sub-periods in order to delineate global warming trends in the regional climate temperature data • These states are of importance because they experience distinct weather patterns due to the influence by the Atlantic and the Gulf which is a really good moisture source for storm systems. • Investigate regional scale characteristics of temperature variations for effects of Carbon dioxide (CO2)

22. Mean yearly temperature variation for the period 1895 – 2008 split into three zones of the periods – 1895 – 1038, 1938 – 1968, and 1968 - 2008

23. Global and Local trends • Industrial period 1890 to present has shown three distinct climate intermediate trends with two positive and one intermittent negative temperature trends. • Robinson has observed that US surface temperatures have increased about 0.50 C per century, with three distinct intermediate trends including a decreasing variation suggestive of ‘global cooling’ period. • He also observed a positive correlation between solar activity and US surface temperatures [15]. Hansen also pointed out the global cooling by about 0.50C between 1940 and 10970s [16]. • Our results also show that the temperature changes in the regional scale have some similarities with that of in US and the global mean. • Effects of CO2 are consistently observed globally, and regional. In our study we have noticed the large scale climate effects being manifested at local scales as well. The warming trends may be due to increase in CO2 and the intermittent cooling trend may be predominantly due to other climate and radiate forcings. • In Jackson, Mississippi the temperature variation over the period 1871-2008 is not monotonous but shows positive trend with warming as well as negative trend with cooling. The results obtained here are based on a regional scale level variation as against the global positive trends observed by other investigators [4, 18, 19].

24. Health Effects • Human health is strongly affected by social, political, economic, environmental and technological factors, including urbanization, affluence, scientific developments, individual behavior and individual vulnerability (e.g., genetic makeup, nutritional status, emotional well-being, age, gender and economic status). • The extent and nature of climate change impacts on human health vary by region, by relative vulnerability of population groups, by the extent and duration of exposure to climate change itself and by society’s ability to adapt to or cope with the change.

25. Health and Climate • Human beings are exposed to climate change through changing weather patterns (for example, more intense and frequent extreme events) and indirectly through changes in water, air, food quality and quantity, ecosystems, agriculture, and economy. • At this early stage the effects are small but are projected to progressively increase in all countries and regions as given by IPCC [3]. • The WHO [17] based on existing quantitative studies of climate–health relationships in a range of climate-sensitive health outcomes including: cardiovascular diseases, diarrhea, malaria, inland and coastal flooding, and malnutrition, estimated the morbidity and mortality caused by human-induced climate change for the years 2000- 2030.

26. Conclusions The model can be used as a tool for evaluating the impact of different emission sources. In the next 48 hrs, Ozone and PM2.5 are positively correlated suggesting absence of dispersion corresponding to calm winds. However, the increase in PM2.5 may have influenced an increase in Ozone activity.

27. More Work • We plan to study similar simulations using CMAQ to understand the photo-chemical mechanisms in the formation of local ozone concentration • HYSPLIT to investigate the pollutant transport and identify the sources of emissions. • The air quality models will be ingested with local observations - meteorological fields and emissions data, to quantify the results and validate the model simulations. • The environmental issues that can affect climate change directly, and health indirectly will also be explored.

28. Future Work To understand the photo-chemical mechanisms in the formation of local ozone concentration, we plan to study similar simulations using an Eulerian chemical transport model (i.e., CMAQ). Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT4) will be used to understand the pollutant transport and identify the emission sources. The air quality models will be ingested with local observations to quantify the results and validate the model simulations.

29. Future Plan of Work To understand the photo-chemical mechanisms in the formation of local ozone concentration, we plan to study similar simulations using an Eulerian chemical transport model (i.e., CMAQ). Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT4) will be used to understand the pollutant transport and identify the emission sources. The air quality models will be ingested with local observations to quantify the results and validate the model simulations. The environmental issues that can affect climate change directly, and health indirectly will be explored.

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34. Acknowledgments • CSET), Dr. John Colonias (Chair, Technology Department) of Jackson State University, for their interest and encouragement in the work and financial assistance to attend the Indo-US conference/Workshop on Air Quality and Climate Research • Dr. Duanjun Lu, Department of Physics, JSU for the model configuration • Contact: francis.tuluri@jsums.edu