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MJO-ENSO review paper idea. Paper for Journal of Climate. MJO-ENSO coupling in observations => Mike, Chidong and Harry (seasonal dependence) MJO theory => Fei-Fei, Chidong ENSO theory => Axel, Eli Mathematical framework => Fei-Fei, Axel Intermediate model framework
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Paper for Journal of Climate • MJO-ENSO coupling in observations => Mike, Chidong and Harry (seasonal dependence) • MJO theory => Fei-Fei, Chidong • ENSO theory => Axel, Eli • Mathematical framework => Fei-Fei, Axel • Intermediate model framework => Eli, Ian • CGCM framework => Matthieu, Kug, • Effects on ENSO prediction, variance precursors => Matthieu, Magdalena, Scott, Mike
MJO-ENSO coupling in observations From Jin et al. 07 From Hendon et al. 07
MJO theory From Rui and Wang Chidong’s and Bin’s review articles are very helpful Who understands Any Majda’s recent work?
ENSO theory Nino 3 SSTA Noise level dT/dt=f (T,u..)+Σ(T)ζ Coupling strength ENSO variance maybe skewness Strength of annual cycle dT/dt=f (T,u..)+Asinωt Nonlinearities dT/dt=f (u'T', Σ(T)ζ) Background state dT/dt=f (T,u,h,v,w) External factors
Mathematical framework State-dependent noise is “coupling” State-dependent noise is also “nonlinearity”
ICM framework From Gebbie et al. 2007
MJO-ENSO interactions in CGCMs Lag Correlation between Noise Variance and ENSO indices NCEP/NCAR Coupled control simulation SNU Coupled control simulation SNU with Cumulus momentum transfer (CMT) CMT mixes down westerly momentum Intensifies noise variance probably by Rossby wave instability Courtesy of Kug, 2007
Effects on ENSO prediction McPhaden et al. 2006 Lengaigne