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Consolidation in the U.S. Pig Industry Changes and Challenges 美国养猪业的整合发展 －－变革和挑战

Consolidation in the U.S. Pig Industry Changes and Challenges 美国养猪业的整合发展 －－变革和挑战. Donald E. Orr, Jr. President, JBS United, Inc. Chairman Elect – American Feed Industry Association 当奥博士， 美国联合营养公司，总裁 美国饲料工业协会，主席（当选）. Seven Pillars of Hog Production 养猪生产的七大支柱.

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Consolidation in the U.S. Pig Industry Changes and Challenges 美国养猪业的整合发展 －－变革和挑战

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  1. Consolidation in the U.S. Pig IndustryChanges and Challenges美国养猪业的整合发展－－变革和挑战 Donald E. Orr, Jr. President, JBS United, Inc. Chairman Elect – American Feed Industry Association 当奥博士， 美国联合营养公司，总裁 美国饲料工业协会，主席（当选）

  2. Seven Pillars of Hog Production养猪生产的七大支柱 • Access to affordable feed grains 有充足的优价饲料资源 • Infrastructure costs　 基础设施成本 • Regulatory requirements　 法规要求 • Access to and cost of capital　 资金来源和成本 • Labor cost and availability　 劳动力成本和来源 • Management expertise and practice　 管理经验和手段 • Large domestic market pork consumption　 当地的消费市场 RaboBank, 2005

  3. Largest Pork Producers 2007　美国养猪公司排名

  4. U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 Share of Annual U.S. Hog Slaughter by Year and Size Category 美国不同规模的养猪公司年生猪宰杀比例 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

  5. U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 Number of Large Firms Producing Hogs　 美国大型猪场数量 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

  6. U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 How Firms Plan to Expand 2006-09:Percent of U.S. Hogs Owned by All Firms Reporting猪场扩张展望 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

  7. Iowa Farrow to Finish Profits, 1996-2008美国依阿华州养猪盈利 Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

  8. Cost of Slaughter Hog Production　美国生猪成本Iowa State University Calculations, 1990-2008 Source: John Lawrence, Iowa State University

  9. Changes in live weight in Midwest USA herds over 20 years.美国上市生猪体重变化

  10. Changes in whole herd feed efficiency in Midwest USA herds over 20 years.美国猪群饲料报酬变化

  11. Feed: gain changes adjusted for live weight饲料报酬以体重调整后的变化

  12. Throughput Trends in US(Agri-Metrics)上市体重变化

  13. Throughput Trends in US(Agri-Metrics)每头母猪年生产小猪头数

  14. Throughput Trends in US(Agri-Metrics)每头母猪年生产猪肉量

  15. U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 Production Information 2006: Percent of All U.S. Hogs Affected二○○六年猪场生产情况 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

  16. Grain Market Factors　谷物市场因素 • Energy Prices 能源价格 • Biofuels • World Supply　世界供应 • Grain carryovers declining • Growing World Demand　世界需求增长 • Weak Dollar　美元疲软 • Encourages exports • Inputs more expensive • Feed Demand　饲料需求 • Fund Trading　资金需求 • Market Volatility　市场浮动 • Risk premiums • Inflation　通胀 • Credit Crunch　信用（资金）限制 • Acreage Balance/Expected Production　种植面积/生产供应 • Weather　气候变化

  17. Use of AI in the USA Swine Industry人工授精技术的使用 Singleton, WL. 2001. Theriogenology 56:1305-1310 • 1990 only 5% of the sow were artificially inseminated • 2000 approximately 60% were bred with AI • 2007 > than 90% bred with AI • Typical dose is 75-80 ml, 2.5-3 billion sperm cells/dose

  18. U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 Where Firms Acquired Semen猪精来源 (percent of firms responding in size category) University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

  19. U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 How Firms Marketed Slaughter Hogs, 2006　生猪是怎样销售的 (percent of firms in size category) University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

  20. U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 Percent of Hogs Sold on Carcass Merit Basis　依胴体价值定价 Firm Size(thousand head mktd. annually) University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

  21. U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 Percent of U.S. Hogs Raised by Firms That Are Contractors 公司由提供合同进行（合约）养猪的比例 1997-2006 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

  22. U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 Percent of U.S. Hogs Raised under Contract, 养猪户依照合同来养猪的比例　1997-2006 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

  23. U.S. Pork Industry Structure Study, 2006 What Do You See as the Greatest Challengesto the U.S. Pork Industry over the Next 5 Years?未来五年最大挑战 University of Missouri, Iowa State University, Pork magazine, Pig Improvement Company, National Pork Board.

  24. Unprecedented Times　前所未有的境遇 $120 / barrel oil At least 4.1 billion bushels of 08/09 corn crop used for ethanol. (33% of projected production) Corn carryout of 0 – 5%. (Very low, maybe negative without any weather issues). What happens if there is even a modest drought? Greenwood, 2008

  25. At least 7% more market hogs in 2008　功过于求 $5.50 + corn/bu　玉米价格 $340 + soybean meal/ton　豆饼价格 $280 / ton feed cost (finishing ration)　饲料成本 Abundant finishing spaces open / available　育肥栏过剩 US Breeding herd has been growing a very modest 1-2% annually. 繁殖猪群增长 Canada paying producers $225 to eliminate sows from production / food chain. 加拿大淘汰母猪补助计划 Unprecedented Times　前所未有的境遇 Greenwood, 2008

  26. Signature Farms　联合公司养猪生产部 • Feed costs increased dramatically • Sale weights were heavy – feed efficiencies biased upwards as a result • Questions/issues • What is the impact of altering feed composition on profitability? • What is optimal/most profitable sale weight? • How is that weight achieved? STRATAPLAN™

  27. Putting the STRATAPLAN Model to Work联合养猪生产模式 • Impact of reducing diet cost – removing fat, removing Paylean, adding DDGS • Reduced both diet costs & pig performance • + $4.42/pig • Optimal/most profitable sale weight – ingredient costs at $6/bu corn • 258-270 lbs (live) • Net effect of achieving weight: + additional $2-3/pig • Achieved through a combination of selling ahead, reducing total days in barn STRATAPLAN™

  28. Financial Impact对回报的影响 • Feed composition/costs: + $4.42 / pig • Annualized: $1,800,000 • Selling at most profitable wt: + $2 to 3 / pig • Annualized: $800,000 to $1,200,000 • Grand total: + $6.42 to 7.42 / pig • Annualized for Signature Farms: + $2,600,000 to $3,000,000 STRATAPLAN™

  29. 2008 Total costs: $165 to $170 2006 Total costs were $110 2008 Feed cost per head = $105 2006 Feed cost per head = $52 Livestock Industry In Crisis养殖业的严峻挑战 U.S. Estimated Cost of Production Per Head 美国每头猪饲养成本估计 Greenwood, 2008

  30. Global View of Costs　世界养猪成本 Greenwood, 2008 Spain costs per head were at Euros converts to $217 for a 235# pig 西班牙养猪成本 Breakeven is $.92 live　平本价每磅$0.92 All of Europe is struggling　整个欧洲面临困境 Corn in Spain was $8.67 bushel　西班牙玉米价格$0.34/kg Soybean meal was $500 a ton　豆粕价格每吨$500 U.S. is the most competitive美国最具竞争力。

  31. Conclusion　结论 Greenwood, 2008 Risk Management will be more critical in the future.风险管理更加关键 Hog Prices as all protein prices will go up – food inflation will occur.猪肉价格持续增长，食品通胀将发生 This will speed up more integration of the industry.行业将进一步整合。

  32. Thank You.

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