Public education in Metropolitan Lima: In danger of extinction?

1. Ricardo Cuenca IEP Institute of PeruvianStudies SIEP Peruvian Society for Educational Research Public education in Metropolitan Lima: In danger of extinction?

2. Contents • Metropolitan Lima: a new city • Research questions, hypothesis and objectives • Mapping of private schools in Metropolitan Lima • Outlook for private schools in Metropolitan Lima • Future of public schools in Metropolitan Lima

3. Metropolitan Lima: a new city Demographic characteristics Economic characteristics

4. Metropolitan Lima: a new city

5. Lima: Demographic characteristics • Lima, Peru’s capital, is the second-largest desert city in the world after Cairo • The estimated population in 2010 was 9,160,384 inhabitants (28% of total) • The area is 2,811.65 Km² (0.2% of the country) • Population density is 19.3 inhabitants per Km2

6. Lima: Economic characteristics • Real monthly average per-capita income in Metropolitan Lima is • 58% higher than in other urban areas • 72% higher than in rural areas

7. Research questions, objectives and hypothesis

8. Research questions • What is the future of public schools in Metropolitan Lima? • Who is demanding private basic education in Lima? • What is the quality of private schools in Metropolitan Lima? • Who would be the future users of public schools in Lima?

9. Hypothesis • Demand for public basic education services in Metropolitan Lima could be reduced to the most excluded families, in a scenario in which • the supply of private education increases, despite the quality of the service • economic growth is sustained • family size remains the same (or decreases)

10. Objectives • Analyze the future situation of public schools in Metropolitan Lima in light of the economic and socio-demographic changes in the country • project the enrollment rate in primary education in private schools in Metropolitan Lima • identify relationships between poverty levels in districts and the existence of low-performing private schools • discuss the role of public schools in light of the expansion of private education

11. Mapping of private schools in Metropolitan Lima Location of schools Characteristics of schools Quality of education

12. Location of schools – I

13. Location of schools – II • The majority of schools in Lima are private • The higher the income, the larger the number of private schools • The lower the income, the greater the demand for private schools

14. Characteristics of schools– I • Private schools are “smaller” (student enrollment)

15. Characteristics of schools– II • The number of teachers is slightly higher in private schools

16. Quality of education– I • The quality of private education is not uniform

17. Quality of education – II • Private education is of higher quality in wealthier districts

18. Outlook for private schools in Metropolitan Lima Increase in supply of private education Sustained economic growth Family size

19. Increase in supply of private education • Only for primary education…

20. Sustained economic growth • The districts with the greatest economic growth used to be the poorest … that trend continues

21. Family size • The number of family members could drop from 4.5 to 3.5

22. Future of public schools in Metropolitan Lima Principal finding The “dream” of private education Lack of interest in public schools Education for human capital Final questions

23. Principal finding • If this scenario holds true, the analysis shows a high probability of: • displacement of public education by private education • concentration of public education among the city’s most excluded groups

24. The “dream” of private education • Quality of teachers (associated with higher salaries) • Parental control and oversight • Better infrastructure and equipment (technology) • Inefficiency of the State compared to private institutions • High levels of corruption in public administration • Profitability of investment in private education

25. Lack of interest in public schools • Exceptional measures take the place of regular policies • “Managing scarcity” in education policies for public schools • Poverty is not offset by high-quality education in public schools • “Free” public education?

26. Education for human capital • The rise of the knowledge production and information management in modern societies • The primacy of effectiveness and profitability as criteria • The educational system must allocate and redistribute resources effectively if it is to increase its educational capital (individual)

27. Final questions • To whom will schools belong in the future? Families? The State? Private enterprise? • What roles will the State play? What will happen to its traditional role of “taking care” of citizens? • Have we reached the end of one form of organization of the educational system? • Is the private school the future of urban education?

28. Lima: a city of constrasts

29. Ricardo Cuenca IEP Institut of PeruvianStudies SIEP Peruvian Society for Educational Research ¡Thankyouverymuch!