1 / 16

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

This update provides information on the recent evolution and current conditions of the South American Monsoon System, including rainfall patterns, long-term deficits, and forecast predictions. It also highlights the impact of Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST anomalies on the monsoon system.

sherryf
Download Presentation

The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The South American Monsoon System: Recent Evolution and Current Status Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 19 September2016 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/American_Monsoons

  2. Outline • Highlights • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts • Climatology

  3. Highlights • Long-term rainfall deficits are present over Brazilian Plateau and southern Brazil. • During the last 7 days (12-18 September 2016), below-average precipitation was observed over Venezuela, northwestern Brazil and southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of Colombia, eastern Ecuador and southern Amazon Basin. • For 19-25 September2016, below-average precipitation is predicted over Venezuela, northern and southern Brazil, eastern Argentina and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted over central Colombia, western-central Peru and southern Bolivia.

  4. Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days Total Anomaly During the last 7 days, below-average precipitation was observed over Venezuela, northwestern Brazil and southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of Colombia, eastern Ecuador and southern Amazon Basin.

  5. Rainfall Totals & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days Total Anomaly During the last 30 days, below-average precipitation was observed over most of the northern South America, central Brazil, central Argentina and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation was observed over portions of Paraguay, Uruguay, southern Brazil, southern Amazon Basin and central Colombia.

  6. BP Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 90 Days BP: Brazilian Plateau • 90-day rainfall deficits are present over the Brazilian Plateau (~30 mm) and southern Brazil (> 80 mm).

  7. Tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST Anomalies SSTs are below average cross central and east-central tropical Pacific, and near average in the tropical Atlantic. (For details concerning El Niño – La Niña, go to the link below.) A weekly PowerPoint summarizing the ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictionsis available at: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

  8. Atmospheric Circulation Recent 7 days • Upper panels: During the period of 11-17 September 2016, anomalous anticyclonic flow (center noted by red A) was observed over subtropical South America, off the coast of Chile. • Lower panels: Anomalous sinking motion was observed over much of Brazil, northwestern Argentina and northern Chile. A • Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter- than-normal conditions. • Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-normal conditions.

  9. 925-hPa Wind &Temperature Recent 30 Days Recent 7 Days During the 7-day period 11-17 September 2016, above-average temperatures were observed over much of Brazil and eastern Argentina. Low-level (~600 m above sea level) wind and temperature anomalies based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations. Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.

  10. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 19 Sept 2016 –Days 1-7 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  11. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation Forecasts from 19 Sept 2016 – Days 8-14 Total Anomaly Note: Bias correction based on last 30-day forecast error.

  12. NCEP/GFS MODEL FORECASTS • For Days 1-7 (19-25 September2016), below-average precipitation is predicted over Venezuela, northern and southern Brazil, eastern Argentina and southern Chile. Above-average precipitation is predicted for central Colombia, western-central Peru and southern Bolivia. • For Days 8-14 (26 September – 02 October 2016), below-average precipitation is predicted for most of Venezuela and southern Brazil. Above-average precipitation is predicted across central Peru and western Bolivia.

  13. Forecast Verification Forecast from 05 Sept 2016 Valid for 12-18 Sept 2016 Forecast from 12 Sept 2016 Valid for 12-18 Sept 2016 Observed 12-18 Sept 2016

  14. ClimatologyRainy Season Dates ONSET DEMISE

  15. Precipitation Climatology

  16. Precipitation Climatology Animation

More Related