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Amazonas Center Manaus, Brazil

Toward More Prosperous Cities: Puttin g People First Wendell Cox ● 28 October 2013. Amazonas Center Manaus, Brazil. WHY CITIES EXIST. Shanghai. Large labor markets are the only raison d’être of large cities . Alain Bertaud, World Bank. Principal Priority of Government Improving

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Amazonas Center Manaus, Brazil

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  1. Toward More Prosperous Cities: Putting People First Wendell Cox ● 28 October 2013 Amazonas Center Manaus, Brazil

  2. WHY CITIES EXIST Shanghai Large labor markets are the only raison d’être of large cities. Alain Bertaud, World Bank

  3. Principal Priority of Government Improving Economic Well-Being (Better standard of living, less poverty) Misplaced priorities

  4. Urban Containment: Economic Threat IMPERATIVE TO STOP THE SPREAD Athens LABELS: Smart Growth Growth Management Compact Cities

  5. World’s Largest Cities (Urban Areas) 650 BC TO PRESENT BELOW Hangzhou , China (Largest Pre-19th Century Urban Area (1300) Huge Swings: 1000 to1500 High 1.1M Low 0.25M Example

  6. CITIES, ECONOMICS & POVERTY Manila Slum

  7. Highest National GDPs: 1500-2000 650 BC TO PRESENT PRINCIPAL MODE  Mass Transit Walking Auto From Maddison (OECD)

  8. Prosperity is not GuaranteedECONOMIC POLICIES MATTER Manila

  9. Economics: A History of PovertyCANNOT TAKE AFFLUENCE FOR GRANTED Dhaka Shantytown Up to 2M/Square Mile Dhaka

  10. HOW CITIES GROW Los Angeles

  11. Addis Ababa Urban Area: Evolution 1972-2010 1972 2010

  12. Jakarta: Growth by Sector 1971-2010 SUBURBS & EXURBS JAKARTA (CORE)

  13. Population by District: 1901-2011 MUMBAI METROPOLITAN REGION RAIGAHR THANE OUTER MUMBAI INNER MUMBAI

  14. GrowingMegacitiesBecomingLess Dense

  15. No Move from Suburbs to Core US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2000-2010 Data from Census Bureau

  16. CITIES & URBAN CONTAINMENT Mumbai

  17. Urban Growth Boundaries DESTROYING THE COMPETITIVE LAND SUPPLY OUTSIDE UGB $16,000 Per Acre Similar Results In London & and Auckland INSIDE UGB $180,000 Per Acre Portland

  18. Density & TransitTRAVEL PATTERNS NO DIFFERENT THAN LOW DENSITY Statistics Canada: High Density 6+ Miles From Downtown Relies on Cars Suburban Toronto (Newmarket)

  19. Preserving Agricultural Land AGRICULTURAL LAND TAKEN OUT OF PRODUCTION 1950-2000 c Agricultural productivity has doubled Net new open space equal to

  20. CITIES & HOUSING AFFORDABILITY Housing: Largest Household Expenditure Kansas City

  21. Urban Containment Raises House Prices URBAN CONTAINMENT LAND RATIONING Specious Planning Claim: No Consensus (Sun rises in the west economics) Nick Boles UK Planning Minister Kate Barker Bank of England

  22. Land Rationing is the Issue DESTROYS HOUSING AFFORDABILITY ... the affordability of housing is overwhelmingly a function of just one thing, the extent to which governments place artificial restrictions on the supply of residential land. Donald Brash, Governor, Reserve Bank of New Zealand 1988-2002 Introduction to 4th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey

  23. Abandoning Urban ContainmentNEW ZEALAND, FLORIDA, SYDNEY Land has been made artificially scarce by regulation that locks up land for development. This regulation has made land supply unresponsive to demand. Bill English, Deputy Prime Minister New Zealand Introduction to 9thAnnual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey

  24. Measuring Housing Affordability: Median Multiple Median House Price/Median Household Income (Used by UN, OECD and others)

  25. Historic Median Multiple: 3.0 or Less Median House Price/ Median Household Income

  26. Housing Affordability 1950-2012 MAJOR US METROPOLITAN AREAS: MEDIAN MULTIPLE Greater Price Volatility   Median Multiple: Median House Price divided by Median Household Income

  27. Portland: Cost of Housing HIGH POVERTY AREAS (1.5+ POVERTY RATE): 1999-2009 Zip Code data from American Community Survey 2007-11 & 2000 Census

  28. Consequences of Urban Containment ECONOMIC RESEARCH Urban containment: incompatible with housing affordability (Cheshire, London School of Economics) _______________________________________________________________ “Indeed, it is difficult to imagine another plausible cause of the 2008–2009 financial crisis.. In the absence of excessive controls, housing construction would quickly deflate a speculative housing price bubble.” (Jansen & Mills, Northwestern University)

  29. Strong Land Regulation: Less Growth INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH London 20% less job growth than expected in metropolitan areas with strongest land use regulation -Raven Saks US Federal Reserve Board Higher commercial Development costs -Cheshire & Hilbur London School of Economics Reduced employment in Amsterdam/Rotterdam -Vermuelen & Ommeren Netherlands Bureau of Econ. Rsch. Higher unemployment in the UK -Mayo & Angel World Bank

  30. CITIES & TRANSPORTATION Buenos Aires 16-Lane Freeway

  31. Why are All These People on the Parkway? TRANSIT IS ABOUT DOWNTOWN Don Valley Parkway & GO Transit Train

  32. Transit: 45 Minute Job Access METROPOLITAN AREAS OVER 2,000,000: 2008 Average Transit Job Access: 5.6% (NYC: 9.8%)

  33. Work Trip Market Share by Income US MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS: 2006-2010 (ACS)

  34. Democratization of ProsperityASSOCIATION BETWEEN MOBILITY & AFFLUENCE Chicago “Time is Money” PRUD’HOMME Mobility Improves Productivity U. Of Paris HARTGEN-FIELDS Mobility Improves Productivity Reduced Minority Unemployment With Cars U. of California

  35. One Way Work Trip Travel Time HIGH INCOME METROPOLITAN AREAS > 1,000,000

  36. CITIES & SUSTAINABILITY Southern Greenland

  37. Urban Containment: Ineffective & ExpensiveCOSTS PER TON MANY TIMES THE IPCC STANDARD Perth, Australia $20 to $50 per ton

  38. Driving Up GHGs Down: 2010-2040 US LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES (NEW FUEL STANDARDS) Source: US Department Of Energy Driving (VMT) GHG Emissions

  39. Urban Containment: Ineffective GROSS EMISSIONS: REDUCTION FROM 2030 BASE From: EPA, DOE, TRB

  40. Dubaii TOWARD MORE PROSPEROUS CITIES

  41. Standard of Living at Stake IN AN ALREADY CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT Demographics Pensions Public Debt

  42. Putting People First THE NEED FOR RATIONAL PRIORITIES The issue is not…. Urban sprawl Urban design Transit versus cars The issue is PEOPLE Standard of living Reducing poverty Chicago

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