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 Synoptic situation  Modern Forecasts of 1953 storm (‘ReForecasting’)  Expand in three ways:

The 1953 North Sea Gale in Perspective of Historical NWP efforts . H. M. van den Dool, R.E. Kistler and S. Saha, at NCEP.  Synoptic situation  Modern Forecasts of 1953 storm (‘ReForecasting’)  Expand in three ways: a) Barotropic Forecasts

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 Synoptic situation  Modern Forecasts of 1953 storm (‘ReForecasting’)  Expand in three ways:

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  1. The 1953 North Sea Gale in Perspective of Historical NWP efforts. H. M. van den Dool, R.E. Kistler and S. Saha, at NCEP •  Synoptic situation •  Modern Forecasts of 1953 storm(‘ReForecasting’) •  Expand in three ways: • a) Barotropic Forecasts • b) Initial error hand vs present analysis (’53 data) • c) (nearly) Contemporary UK NWP for ’53 case • Acknowledge Anders Persson about point c.

  2. Mean Sea Level Pressure Maps for Jan 29 – Feb 1, 1953, every 3 hours from NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (Kalnay et al 1996; Kistler 2001

  3. 29/0

  4. 30/0

  5. 31/0

  6. 01/0

  7. From Hay, R. F. M., and J. Laing, 1954: The storm of 31st January - 1st February 1953. Mar. Obs., 24, 87-91.

  8. Height fields Jan 28 - Feb 1, 1953 every 6 hours (Reanalysis)

  9. To be sure: This disaster was not just meteorology1) Oceanography, wind stress effect, Kelvin waves and astronomical tides, wind waves2) ‘Coastal’ defense, and its maintenance3) Preparedness, warning system, protocol, bureaucracy, communications, evacuation4) Assessing the risk of a given surge forecast

  10. Forecasts valid for Feb, 1, 1953, 3Z • Reanalysis model T62L28

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