Every Child A Graduate

1. Every Child A Graduate Bob Wise, President Alliance for Excellent Education “Missouri Dropout Prevention Summit” April 20, 2009 Columbia, MO

2. The Challenge for Missouri & the Nation Three out of every ten students do not graduate from high school. About a third who graduate are not college- and work-ready. Source: EPE 2007; Greene 2002

3. Below Basic Basic Proficient Advanced Majority of 8th-Graders Read Below Grade Level Below Proficient Proficient & Above Hispanic (MO) 70% 30% Hispanic (U.S.) U.S. Black (MO) Black (U.S.) 69% 31% MO White (MO) White (U.S.) Source: NAEP, 2007.

4. Comprehensive Data Systems Needed to Avoid This Crisis Missouri has in place 8 of the 10 elements recommended by the Data Quality Campaign (DQC) as the start of a robust P-12 longitudinal data system: • Ability to track individual students over time • Student-level demographic information • Ability to track individual students’ test records from year to year to measure academic growth • Ability to know which students have not been tested • Ability to match teachers to students by classroom and subject • Student-level graduation and dropout data • Ability to match student records between the K–12 and higher education systems • System in place to evaluate data system quality • Missing: • Student-level transcript information • Information on student performance on college-readiness exams like SAT, ACT, and AP

5. Roughly 2,000 Dropout Factories Account for… 48% 12% 69% 63% 12% Much of the dropout crisis is located in relatively few schools. All Dropouts Black Dropouts Hispanic Dropouts All High Schools 48% 69% 63% Notes: Universe includes regular and vocational schools with grades of 10, 11, and 12 ; low grade of 7; and enrollment of at least 100 students. Dropout percentages by subgroup were derived from schools with a promoting power of 60 or less over a 3-year average. Source: Balfanz 2007

6. WhoPays When Students Fail to Graduate? The Students Themselves… Higher crime costs Lost wages Reduced voter participation Increased health care costs Limited job opportunities Barriers to supporting a family Reduced salary The Rest of Us… Compromised health

7. The Economic Impact on the Individual 2005 Average Income by Educational Attainment Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplement, 2006

8. $4.8 billion $53 million $245 million $1.5 billion The Economic Impact on Missouri Source: Alliance for Excellent Education 2006, 2007, 2008

9. Public Benefit of Halving the Number of Dropouts Source: Levin, Kilpatrick, Belfield, Muennig,, and Rouse 2006 America’s Bank The American Taxpayer 45,000,000,000 Forty-five billion RE: annual public contribution from graduating every child

10. The Economy Has Changed…Have Our Schools? Tasks carried out by the American workforce 1960-2002 Abstract tasks Percent change Routine tasks Manual tasks Sources: Autor, Levy, and Murnane 2003.

11. What Americans Value U.S. Rankings on Olympics U.S. Rankings on PISA Reading Science Problem Solving Math U.S. Ranks 15th U.S. Ranks 21st U.S. Ranks 24th U.S. Ranks 25th Sources: PISA 2004, 2007

12. Percent of Population with HS Degree or Equivalent As Others Rise to the Challenge, U.S. Advantage Drops 1990’s 1980’s 1 13 1970’s % 1960’s 1 27 Notes: 1) Excluding ISCED 3C short programmes; 2) Year of reference 2004; 3) Year of reference 2003. 4) Percent population recieviing a HS degree in each decade is approximated by the age cohort typically recieving diplomas at that time; e.g. 1960s is approximated by the proportion of 55-64 year olds with a high school diploma. Source:OECD 2008

13. Federal Support for High Schools is Missing Source: US Department of Education Budget FY2008; US Department of HHS Budget FY2008

14. Unprecedented infusion of funding and prioritization of education by federal government • Temporary money provided to fill shortfalls in education funding. • ED estimate for MO: The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act Over $1 Billion

15. ESEA’s Approach is Somewhat Backwards 50+ sets of standards State Assessments Graduation rates Identifying schools + One-size-fits-all school consequences Federal

16. ESEA – A New Approach Common Standards + Graduation Rate Calculations National State Set of diagnostic indicators District Differentiate schools’ needs School Individualize school improvement strategies

17. Potential Federal Support Graduation Promise Act Turning around America’s low-performing high schools New $2.5 billion targeted for HS turnaround State & district systems of high school improvement: Data-driven Differentiate between type of school needs Individualize school-site improvement strategies

18. Additional Federal Support • GRADUATES Act • Developing or replicating innovative ways to improve student achievement • Fund partnerships between schools, districts and community partners, businesses, higher education, researchers • Implement innovative high school teaching/learning • Evaluate and share best practices • Comprehensive Literacy Bill • Improving literacy birth through grade 12 • New funding targeted for early childhood, K-3, and adolescent literacy • State, district, and school comprehensive literacy plans • Materials, extra time, and help for struggling readers • Professional development for teachers of core academic subjects

20. Governor Bob Wise Alliance for Excellent Education www.all4ed.org Raising the Grade: How High School Reform Can Save Our Youth and Our Nation available at www.amazon.com, www.barnesandnoble.com, www.bordersstores.com, www.booksense.com, www.booksamillion.com, www.wiley.com

21. OPTIONAL SLIDES

22. NCLB: State Definitions of “Proficiency” Vary Greatly Eighth Grade Reading, 2007 Percent “proficient” on state test State standards = NAEP standard Percent “proficient” on NAEP Percent “proficient” on NAEP Notes: (1) Excludes VT and DC (2) 2006 data used for HI, NE, NJ, NC, OR, TN, WI; 2007 data by grade were not available when this chart was created. Source: Alliance for Excellent Education, assistance from Goodwin Liu