Cross-Strait Relations under Globalisation: Opportunity and Challenge 全球化下之兩岸關係 : 競遇與挑戰

1. Cross-Strait Relations under Globalisation: Opportunity and Challenge 全球化下之兩岸關係:競遇與挑戰 Dr. Pei-Shan, Kao National Chiao-Tung University Unit 2

2. Introduction •  II. Research Concepts of Complex Interdependence Theory • III. Interdependent Cross-Strait Relations • IV. Contradictory Cross-Strait Relations •  V. Conclusion

3. Research Concepts of Complex Interdependence -By Robert Keohane and Josepy Nye -Power and Interdependence (1977) -An analytical model used to describe “an ideal type of world politics and to challenge the Realist assumptions”. -It describes ‘a world in which actors other than states participate directly in world politics, in which a clear hierarchy of issues does not exist, and in which force is an ineffective instrument of policy.’

4. Characteristics of Complex Interdependence: *Multiple Channels connecting Societies *Absence of Hierarchy among Issues *Minor Role of Military Force

5. Interdependent Cross-Strait Relations -Highly Interdependent Trade and Economic Relations -Active Social, Cultural and Educational Exchanges -Intensive Political Contacts (quasi-official/party-to-party talks)

6. 1. Interdependent Economic and Trade Relations • -As Table 1 showed, in 1991, Taiwan invested $174 million in China, occupying 9.52% of Taiwan’s DFI to the world, which was $1.8 billion. It then rose to $4.59 billion in 2003 and occupied over half of Taiwan’s DFI to the world. • In fact, it is difficult to figure the real and correct amount of Taiwan investment in China as many investments go unreported to the government. Although Taiwan’s official record shows a total investment of $34.3 billion from 1991 to 2003, unofficial estimates range from $100 billion to $150 billion. • According to Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic, in 2006, Taiwan’s investment in China increased to $7.64 billion dollars. • The number then reached to $9.97 billion dollars in 2007, making for a cumulative total of $72.28 billion since 1991 to September 2008. Taiwan now is the largest foreign investor in China

7. Trade Statistics: • In 2000, the two-way trade totalled $31.25 billion. • China has become the largest source of Taiwan’s trade surplus. • The trade amount has grown sharply from $77.8 million in 1979 to $46.3 billion in 2003. (See Table 3) • Thebilateral trade in 2007 has totalled over $100 billion, making for a cumulative total of $670.3 billion since 1988. • The cross-strait trade accounted for 0.25% of Taiwan’s total trade amount in 1979 and increased sharply to 17.7% in 2003, it grew nearly 70 times. • China’s trade dependence on Taiwan was 0.26% in 1979; it then grew over 20 times to 5.44% in 2003. • Now the cross-strait trade accounts for 21.95% of Taiwan’s total trade amount; and it occupies 4.71% in China’s total foreign trade.

8. 2. Social and Cultural Exchanges *According to Chinese statistics, 437,700 Taiwanese visited China in 1988. However, this level grew over ten times to 4,627,881 in 2007. Similarly, the number of Chinese residents travelling to Taiwan also increased sharply. *In 1989, there were 1,261 Chinese residents visiting Taiwan; the numbers grew greatly to 279,751 in 2007. It increased over 221 times. →Not only did Taiwanese tourist travel to China grow substantially since 1988, but that the number of Chinese residents travelling to Taiwan also steadily increased since 1989.

9. *There are now 1,500,000 Taiwanese working and residing in China. *According to the SEF, in 2008 there have been 20,729 Chinese professionals who applied for coming Taiwan to visit.

10. 3. Intensive Political Contacts In 1991, Establishment of the SEF, and the ARATS →In 1993, “Koo-Wang Talks” in Singapore →In 1995, Suspension of Cross-strait negotiations as President Lee Teng-hui visited the United States. →Contacts between the SEF and ARATS resumed in 1998, “Koo-Wang Meeting” in Shanghai → Communication between the SEF and ARATS broke off again in 1999 as Lee Teng-hui’s statement to a German media. → Since 2000, under Chen Shui-bian’s rule; the bilateral bargaining was nearly suspended. According to the SEF, there were a total of 29 bargaining and talks that have been held by the two sides from 1991 to 2008.

11. Other Political Contacts and Exchange: *The “Cross-Strait Economic, Trade and Cultural Forum” held by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Communist Party of China (CPC). e.g.: Wu Poh-hsiung, the Chairman of Kuomintang, visited China in May 2008 and met with Chinese Communist Party Secretary General Hu Jintao. ↓ The first political contact between the two parties in 60 years. *In March 2008, the vice-president elect, Vicent Siew met with Hu Jintao at the Boao Forum in April in Hainan. ↓ The highest-level political contact across the Taiwan Strait in nearly 60 years. *Lien Chan, KMT honorary Chiarman also have met with Hu Jintao at the APEC in November 2008 in Peru.

12. *The first Chiang-Chen Talk: 11-14 June 2008, Beijing. The Strait Exchange Foundation (SEF) sent a delegation to China to hold talks with China’s Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS). →Outcome: The two sides signed the “Cross-Strait Agreement on Travel by Mainland Residents to Taiwan” and the “Minutes of Talks on Cross-Strait Charter Flights”. (週末包機與陸客來台觀光) *The second Chiang-Chen Talk: November 3-7 2008, Taipei. →Outcome: Signed 4 agreements on food safety, air transport, sea transport, and postal service. (海運直航、空運直航、通郵及食品安全) *The third Chiang-Chen Talk: It may take place soon in the first half of 2009, Beijing. →The topics may include “joint efforts to combat crimes, scheduled cross-strait flights, and signing of a memorandum of understanding.” (兩岸司法互助、定期航班、金融監理備忘錄)

13. IV. Contradictory Cross-Strait Relations *Diplomatic Competition *Missile Deployment: Real Threat? Bargaining Chips? *Sovereignty Disputes

14. Fig 1. Chart showing spectrum from Realism to Complex Interdependence

15. V. Conclusions How to increase cooperation and decrease the occurrence of conflicts is of importance as under globalisation, states are highly interdependent. An optimistic prospect of cross-strait relations can be expected.

16. Thanks For Your Listening!!