Maria Scholten Brian Ford-Lloyd Nigel Maxted Shelagh Kell

1. How to establish economic values for crop wild relatives: methods and data sourcesPresentation prepared for PGR Forum workshop 2 Korsǿr, Denmark, 27 – 29 April 2005 Maria Scholten Brian Ford-Lloyd Nigel Maxted Shelagh Kell

2. Economic valuation of crop wild relatives: methods and data sources 1. Context of valuation: prioritisation of 1025 genera 2. Types of values. Application to PGR 3. Methodologies of valuating biodiversity 4. How to apply these methods? 5. Economic data types and prioritisation

3. Context = prioritisation IBPGR ‘Revised priorities among crops and regions’ • Risk of genetic loss • Economic and social importance of the materials in terms of their present usefulness and importance (volume or value of production and trade, numbers of people depending on them) • Recognized requirements of plant breeders and research workers • Size, scope and quality of existing collections. Source: IBPGR 1981

4. 16 of 30 Priority genera OPGC (USA) have European native relatives Hemerocallis Impatiens Iris Lilium Narcissus Salvia Verbena Veronica Viola

5. A typology of values

6. A typology of values: application to PGR activities Activity Direct use valueIndirect use valueNon-use value PGR in wild recreational optional intrinsic Inventory breeding/recreational optional intrinsic In situ breeding/recreational optional intrinsic Ex situ breeding optional - Evaluation breeding optional/diversity - Prebreeding breeding diversity - (source: Gollin and Evenson 2003)

7. Market prices for UK crop wild relatives? Taraxacum, Rumex, Anthriscum, Malva leaves harvested in the wild: £15 per kg box (source: Observer April 2005) Wild harvested produce in EU(25): 487 – 3, 903 tonnes/year (source: EUROSTAT) would represent a total value between 0.7 and 500 million euros?

8. Methods of economic valuation A. Market price evaluation: e.g. market contracts B. Non-market price evaluation to value non-market goods: Stated preferences: based on questionnaires Revealed preferences techniques: uses existing market data in “surrogate market”

9. Non-market valuation: contingency valuation Country Biodiversity category WTP per household/year Norway 1990 Brown bear, wolf $15.0 USA 1990 Bald eagle $12.4 USA 1990 Grizzly bear $18.5 USA 1990 Blue whale $ 9.3 USA 1990 Bighorn sheep $ 8.6 USA 1990 Bottlenose dolphin $ 7.0 Germany 1991 Endangered species € 72 Sweden1989 300 endangered species €139 Portugal 2002 Natural parks and wilderness € 38 NL 1994 Wildlife habitat enhancing € 8 – 23 UK 1992 Wetland site protection € 6 – 17.5 PGR Forum 2005 Weedy crop wild relative € ? (Source: Pearce and Moran 1994 / Nunes et al 2002)

10. Example of non-market valuation: production function • Estimating marginal value of pre-breeding materials • Example: 573 soybean accessions in USDA germplasm collection • Method: Maximum Entropy • Result: expected yield loss prevented by additional accession: 0.00024%. • Because of large value of soybean as a crop and the large losses to be expected from the specific pest under study this percentage can be considered high. (source: Zohrabian 2003)

11. Non-market valuation: production loss averted Production loss averted. Has been used in the past to evaluate PGR: their role in reducing future crop losses. Example: corn leaf blight in 1970’s. Quantitative estimates of the insurance value of PGR may be inferred from crop insurance markets (Swanson, Pearce and Cercigni 1994). Problematic about this approach: ignores substitution effects and real agricultural losses (Gollin 1998).

12. Data types to value crops Optional value = potential of crop for the breeding industry: • Number of ex situ accessions • Number of varieties currently marketed • Number of applications for variety protection Current value = market value of crop: • Area harvested in hectares • Production in tonnes harvested • Price per unit • Total value (price per unit * total volume)

13. Common Catalogues of horticultural and agricultural species • Year of reference: 2003 • 81 agricultural crops • 46 horticultural crops • 14 000 agricultural varieties • 13 000 horticultural varieties • 65 genera in total • 50 genera with European native wild relatives • Highest number of crops per genus: Brassica

16. Forages ranking by number of varieties in the EU Common Catalogue

17. Community Plant Variety Office (CPVO): • > 11 000 applications for plant variety rights since 1995 • 1038 taxa currently covered • In 2002: • 68% of applications for ornamental taxa • 19% of applications for agricultural taxa • 8% for vegetables • 6 % for fruit varieties

18. CPVO plant variety rights granted since 1995 (source: CPVO April 2005)

19. Prioritising CPVO ornamental genera – is not difficult!

20. MARKET VALUE 15 EU countries between 2000 – 2003 Price range over 15 countries × Average volume (tonnes) produced between 2000 - 2003 Minimum total value = minimum price × volume Maximum total value = maximum price × volume

22. FAOSTAT: European agricultural crop production 1994 – 2004

23. FAOSTAT: European agricultural crop production 1994 – 2004

24. Vegetable genera top 12 - FAO

25. Fruit top genera 1994 -2004 - FAOSTAT

26. Forages’ seed market

27. Dutch Flower Auction production and price for most important ornamental crops 2003

28. Synthesis: prioritising by combined ranking (1)

29. Synthesis (2): prioritised genera

30. Per capita average supply of calories – Europe 1992 - 2002

31. TAK

32. References FAO 1998 The state of the world’s plant genetic resources for food and agriculture. FAO, Rome. IBPGR Revised priorities among crops and regions. IBPGR, Rome, 1981 Nunes, P.A.L.D., van den Bergh, J.C.J.M and P. Nijkamp 2002 The ecological economics of biodiversity. Edward Elgar – UK –USA Pearce, D. and D. Moran 1994 The economic value of biodiversity. Earthscan books Ltd. Reid, W.V. et al. 1993 Biodiversity indicators for policy-makers. WRI/IUCN/UNEP Smale and Koo 2003 Ten Kate, K. and S. Laird 1999 The commercial uses of biodiversity. Access to genetic resources and benefit sharing. Earthscan Publications Ltd.

33. Biodiversity indicators to help set priorities? WRI IUCN WCMC indicators for domesticated species: • Accessions of crops in ex situ storage • % of accessions regenerated • Number of crops grown • Number of varieties grown • Kinship or parentage of crop Source: WRI IUCN WCMC 1993 Biodiversity indicators for policy-makers

34. FAO State of the World’s PGRFA 1998 Some conclusions on methods to assign economic value: • Many attempts to valuate biological diversity as public goods • Various biodiversity functions (ecosystem) are valued rather than plant genetic resources • As a consequence: little application to valuation of plant genetic resources Prioritisation: 30 major world crops listed

35. Typology of values: some problems with its application to PGR • Use value of PGR is based on actual and potential flow of materials from a collection into a breeding program • This cannot be directly measured • Option value is an important component of a genebank accession but how to measure?

36. Modelling bioprospecting of pharmaceuticals (Source: Simpson 1996)

37. Example of non-market valuation: hedonic pricing • “Estimating an implicit price for environmental attributes by looking at real markets in which those characteristics are effectively traded” (Pearce and Moran 1994). • Has been used to analyse productivity of alternative categories of rice germplasm in India (Gollin and Evenson 1998) • Entailing a statistical regression relating a measure of varietal improvement in farmers’ fields to factors expected to cause or produce varietal improvement.

38. Non-market economic valuation Revealed Preferences techniques: uses existing market data in “surrogate market”: • Production Function • Hedonic Price • Averting behaviour or losses

40. Dutch Flower Auction minimum prices for most important crops