Torsti Loikkanen, Toni Ahlqvist VTT Innovation Studies Pekka Pellinen

1. Third International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making 16th- 17th October 2008 Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of National Innovation System Torsti Loikkanen, Toni Ahlqvist VTT Innovation Studies Pekka Pellinen The Finnish Association of Graduate Engineers TEK

2. Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS Content of presentation • Introduction – why Technology Barometer? • Purpose and methodology • Theoretical background • Results of Technology Barometer • Indicator based comparison • Survey study of future visions • Conclusions • Technology Barometer as an instrument for policy-making • Further development

3. Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS Introduction – Why Technology Barometer? • International comparisons of the competitiveness and economic and innovation performance of nations

4. Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS Introduction Why Technology Barometer? • International discussion of performance comparisons • Heterogeneity of comparisons: reliability of data, methodology, purpose... • “…indicators, if poorly constructed, can have even misleading policy messages” (Nardo et al. 2005; Freudenberg 2003) • National controversy regarding the reliability of performance comparisons • Backward looking mirror perspective – use for future oriented planning? • Composition of respondents in comparisons (e.g. business executives) • Initiative of The Finnish Association of Graduate Engineers (TEK) • National comparative exercise on own terms is needed • Entails comparative country study based on indicators of past development, and future oriented visionary survey • Methodology development with VTT Innovation Studies 2002 - 2003 • Technology Barometer published three times, in 2004, 2005 and 2007

5. Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS Technology Barometer Purpose, methodology and theoretical background • Produces data of how favorable and competitive national innovation environment is now and in the future • Takes into account path and history dependence: future-oriented knowledge shall be properly interlinked to past development path • Both parts of TB follow by and large the same structure allowing the linking of ex-post and ex-ante to each other • Any indicator system needs a sound theoretical basis - TB is based on studies of the dynamic evolution of various development stages of a modern society after the industrialization - from information society to knowledge society to sustainable knowledge-value society • E.g. Bell 1976; Masuda 1980; Sakaiya 1991; Castells 1996, 1997, 1998

6. Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS Technology Barometer Theoretical background • Indicators of TB are structured correspondingly among different development stages of a modern society

7. Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS Technology Barometer Theoretical background and indicators • Information society produces, processes, disseminates and exploits information • Indicators like basic education, schooling, skills and knowledge of general public, private and public investments in R&D • Knowledge society produces commodities of high knowledge value • Indicators like human and intellectual capital investments in S&T, applications of ICT, outcomes of these investments as R&D productivity • Elements of knowledge-value society are innovation, technology development, economic regeneration, openness to new ideas and their active exploitation, contributing to the basic values and culture of society • Indicators like entrepreneurship and venturing, innovation networking, and adaptations of innovative practices in a nation. • Moreover TB indicates how effectively the development complies with the principles of sustainable development • Indicators like social values, environmental responsibility, environmental systems

8. Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS Results of indicator based comparison Indicator based comparison • Interpretation or results, e.g. • IS: Finland and Nordic countries • KS: Sweden getting stronger • KVS: Netherlands, USA • SD: E.g. Finland, Sweden

9. Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS Results of indicator based comparison Indicator based comparison • Positioning Finland in TB 2007: Finland’s above-average or below-average rating in comparison to reference group (the y axis), and whether any improvement or deterioration has taken place (the x axis) in comparison to the previous survey (*) • Results f.ex. • deterioration in techno-scientific competence • exploitation of ICT weakest partial area • positive development in entrepreneurship and openness to internationalism (*) Technique: Each partial area is measured by using a combined indicator in order to calculate an arithmetic average value of several statistical indicators’ normalised values between -2 and +2

10. Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS Survey study of future visions Four parts with partial indicators • Competence and knowledge generation: techno-scientific competence prospects and young people’s interest in a number of professions • Knowledge society development: Finnish research activities, the prevailing state of technology development and various societal institutions, which have an impact on research and on societal development in general • Innovative society: level of investment, entrepreneurial activity and impact of technology development on the quality of life • Sustainable development: environmental threats, the state of the environment, and action taken by the authorities

11. Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS Survey study of future visions Respondents • Members of The Finnish Association of Graduate Engineers (TEK) (86) • Youth: six secondary school classes from different parts of Finland (272) • Politicians (22): Members of Future committee of Parliament, directors of province administrations, chairpersons of city councils of seven largest towns • Industry: One hundred largest companies ranked according to R&D investments

12. Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS Survey study of future visions Results (examples) • Politicians more optimistic than professional engineers or company executives about country’s techno-economic development • Raised worries in media after TB publication • Assessments of youth points out that in the future S&T will be increasingly followed through means of interactive, instantly updated electronic media • These areas attract youth also in the future • Role of user-produced content in media will increase • In theme of education e.g. a number of questions arise like the idea of including interactive and mobile media skills to science education curriculum at elementary level

13. Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS Technology Barometer Synthesizing discussion of indicator and surveys studies • Three cross-cutting themes: • Changing role of knowledge-intensive work e.g. • new aspects introduced into this role in particular • Innovations and business e.g. • How to convert ideas into products and market them with increasing efficiency • Identification requires competence development, in basic technologies and business thinking alike, so as to generate product concepts with increasing initiative and courage. • Education structures • Finland is relatively successful in basic education • New challenges are emerging, as indicated in the need for the skills in critical interactive media reading

14. Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS Conclusions TB as an instrument for policy-making • TB is aimed at providing guidance for technology related actions beneficial for the society • Arising need of strengthening links between foresight activities, policy development and actual technological development • Key role of TB is to analyze past and future oriented data and synthesize that into meaningful conclusions • Transparency is of paramount importance to retain the attention of the target groups and to avoid confusion among audience • TB proven to be capable of casting light into “black boxes” of NIS by focusing decision-makers attention to core subjects • TB has been received positively in political arena, and has become an established point of reference among cabinet members, parliamentarians and politicians • Wide interest is indicated e.g. by numerous articles in newspapers and professional journals

15. Role of Technology Barometer in Assessing Past and Future Development of NIS Conclusions Thank You For Your Attention! Technology Barometer 2007 downloadable in http://www.tek.fi/ci/pdf/teknologia/Technology_Barometer_2007.pdf Further development • The plan to publish TB at appropriate intervals of 2 – 3 years • Timing depends on factors affecting national economy and innovation system • The content will be further developed, however, without jeopardizing its nature as barometer, i.e. comparison of latest with previous ones shall be possible • Recent changes of Finnish innovation policy will be taken into account in further development of structure and content of TB • More systemic integration of evaluative impact assessment, risk analysis and foresight approaches – strategic policy intelligence - into TB? • Towards international collaboration?