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Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area. The Fourth Symposium on Southwest Hydrometeorology Tucson, Arizona September 20-21, 2007. Matei Georgescu Center for Environmental Prediction – Rutgers University. Topic Outline. Introduction/Scientific Question

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Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

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  1. Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area The Fourth Symposium on Southwest HydrometeorologyTucson, ArizonaSeptember 20-21, 2007 Matei Georgescu Center for Environmental Prediction – Rutgers University

  2. Topic Outline • Introduction/Scientific Question • Method of Investigation/Numerical Modeling • Impact of Hypothetical LULCC over Greater Phoenix area • Assessment of 30 years of LULCC over Greater Phoenix area • Concluding Remarks and Future Work Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

  3. Growth of Recorded Subdivisions in Maricopa County (1900-2007) Source: http://www.maricopa.gov/assessor/ Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

  4. Urban Population Explosion Source: http://gp2100.org/ Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

  5. Scientific Question • Can we quantify the impacts of LULCC on local and regional weather and climate? • What can we say about specific land-atmosphere interactions and possible feedbacks controlling these impacts? • With expansion expected to occur for at least the next 50 years what consequences may be expected? • As sprawl continues in the Greater Phoenix area, can we use lessons learned from this case study to mitigate effects from other rapidly urbanizing cities in arid areas (e.g., Las Vegas, Riyadh)? Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

  6. RAMS [v 4.3] nested grid domain configuration • 38 Vertical Levels with 12 levels in the first 1500 m. • RAMS Convective Parameterization: Kain-Fritsch. • Interactive Soil and Vegetation Model (LEAF II). • Initial Surface Boundary Condition: NARR Reanalysis Soil Moisture/Temperature of corresponding year. • Nudging at lateral boundaries with 6-hr NARR data. Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

  7. Fine grid LULC representation urban (a) (b) irr. agriculture shrubland (d) (c) Dominant LULC representation for fine grid employing circa 2001 (a), circa 1992 (b), circa 1973 (c) landscape, and a hypothetical land cover scenario (i.e., pre-1900) with anthropogenic influence removed (d). Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

  8. Impact of Hypothetical LULCC over Greater Phoenix area Sensitivity of Summer Climate to Land Cover Change over the Greater Phoenix, AZ, Region (2007), Submitted to GRL Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

  9. Summary of experiments Summary of all 12 experiments performed. For each experiment, the analysis time consists of the period lasting from July 1, 12Z through July 31, 12Z. ** denotes experiment used as Control simulation which was validated against observations. Sensitivity of Summer Climate to Land Cover Change over the Greater Phoenix, AZ, Region (2007), Submitted to GRL Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

  10. Comparison to Observations observations simulation Observed three-hourly 1.5 meter air temperatures (black) and RAMS simulated 2-meter temperatures from the control run simulation (red) during the period July 1st -12Z to July 31st -12Z, 1990. Units are in [°C]. The time series represent temperatures averaged over five stations: (1) Sky Harbor International Airport, (2) Phoenix Encanto, (3) Phoenix Greenway, (4) Waddell, and (5) Maricopa Agricultural Station. Sensitivity of Summer Climate to Land Cover Change over the Greater Phoenix, AZ, Region (2007), Submitted to GRL Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

  11. Comparison to Observations Mean monthly temperature comparison between RAMS-simulated control experiment and station-observations for July 1, 12Z - July 31, 12Z, 1990. Sensitivity of Summer Climate to Land Cover Change over the Greater Phoenix, AZ, Region (2007), Submitted to GRL Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

  12. Temperature Dew-point (b) (a) (c) (d) RAMS simulated ensemble differences (NLCD92 - Pre-Settlement) in (a) first atmospheric level [24.1 m] air temperature [°C] and (b) dew point [°C], for the WET years; (c) first atmospheric level [24.1 m] air temperature [°C] and (d) dew point [°C], for the DRY years. Each calculation is for the analysis period: July 1, 12Z – July 31, 12Z. Sensitivity of Summer Climate to Land Cover Change over the Greater Phoenix, AZ, Region (2007), Submitted to GRL Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

  13. Precipitation (b) (a) RAMS simulated ensemble differences (NLCD92 - Pre-Settlement) in (a) total accumulated precipitation [mm] for all 3 WET years; (b) total accumulated precipitation [mm] for all 3DRY years; Sensitivity of Summer Climate to Land Cover Change over the Greater Phoenix, AZ, Region (2007), Submitted to GRL Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

  14. Precipitation (b) (c) (a) RAMS simulated ensemble member differences (NLCD92 - Pre-Settlement) in total accumulated precipitation [mm] for(a) 1994, (b) 1989,and (c) 1979. Sensitivity of Summer Climate to Land Cover Change over the Greater Phoenix, AZ, Region (2007), Submitted to GRL Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

  15. Equivalent Potential Temperature (a) (b) (a) domain-averaged [lat: 33 to 34/lon: -112.2 to -111.0] vertical profile of equivalent potential temperature difference (NLCD92 - Pre-Settlement) for selected DRY year cases; (b) as (a), but averaged over each DRY year simulation for the analysis period: July 1, 12Z – July 31, 12Z. Sensitivity of Summer Climate to Land Cover Change over the Greater Phoenix, AZ, Region (2007), Submitted to GRL Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

  16. Temperature Dew-point (a) (b) (d) (c) RAMS simulated ensemble differences (NLCD01 minus NLCD73) in (a) first atmospheric level [24.1 m] air temperature [°C] and (b) dew point [°C], for all three WET years; (c) first atmospheric level [24.1 m] air temperature [°C] and (d) dew point [°C], for all three DRY years. Each calculation is for the analysis period: July 1, 12Z – July 31, 12Z. Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

  17. Sensible Heat Flux Latent Heat Flux (a) (b) (d) (c) RAMS simulated ensemble differences (NLCD01 minus NLCD73) in surface sensible heat flux (a) for all three WET years, and (b) all three DRY years. RAMS simulated ensemble differences (NLCD01 minus NLCD73) in surface latent heat flux (c) for all three WET years and (d) all three DRY years. Each calculation is for the analysis period: July 1, 12Z – July 31, 12Z. All units expressed in W m-2. Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

  18. Concluding Remarks/Future Work • Offsetting contributions of irrigated agriculture and urbanization (in a regionally-averaged sense) are specified. • Greater-Phoenix region induced impact on precipitation is noted during particular atmospheric regime. • Preliminary assessment of 30 years of LULCC over Greater Phoenix indicates warmer and drier climate. • What does the future hold in terms of continued growth rate and continued landscape alteration? Source: http://gp2100.org/ Georgescu (matt1@cep.rutgers.edu) Assessing The Impact of LULCC on The Greater Phoenix Area

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