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Climate-Flow Forecast Research Motivations

Climate-Flow Forecast Research Motivations. ISI climate predictability is relatively limited in our region (CB) water management in 7 states depends on regional climate and flow forecasts plot -- JFM Precip correlation with Nino 3.4, lag 1 season. Linkage to Water/Energy Management.

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Climate-Flow Forecast Research Motivations

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  1. Climate-Flow Forecast Research Motivations • ISI climate predictability is relatively limited in our region (CB) • water management in 7 states depends on regional climate and flow forecasts • plot -- JFM Precip correlation with Nino 3.4, lag 1 season

  2. Linkage to Water/Energy Management • Average contribution to Lake Powell Apr-Jul inflow: • Green River 34% • Colorado River 50% • San Juan River 13% In development… CFS-based flow forecasts for Reclamation water management Stakeholder Allocations Reclamation Midterm-Probabilistic Model Graphic from Dr. Katrina Grantz, Bureau of Reclamation 2 2

  3. Example of Experimental Ensembles Flow into Lake Powell GFS and/or CFS based ensembles: CBRFC & CNRFC experimental products updated daily GFS CFS Contact: Andy Wood (Andy.Wood@noaa.gov) 3

  4. SI/Y2 Climate and Streamflow Forecasting Workshop NOAA/NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, UT – March 21-22, 2011 Organized by Sponsored by CBRFC Colorado Water Conservation Board Reclamation NIDIS Academic Researchers Gillies & Wang, USU Troch, UA Piechota, UNLV Moradkani, PSU Rajagopalan, CSU Wolter, CU Streamflow Forecasting Research Development Operations CBRFC Partners in Water Management Reclamation Colorado Basin Others: Becky Smith (student, CSU); Sponsors (CWCB) and Consultant (RTI)

  5. Testbed Data

  6. Climate-Flow Forecast Needs • NWS Hydrology strategy depends on REFORECASTS • a decade of experience showing that we must calibrate climate/wx forecasts to our hydrology model input characteristics • water management decisions affected by long persistence • months to seasons: land surface storages (soil, snow) • years: artificial reservoirs, groundwater • ISI to multi-year sequences are critical to stakeholders • historical analogs are informative – hindcasts serve this purpose too • What about downscaling/calibration, skill? • hydrologists have been very active • efforts by climate forecast producers will be appreciated, but… • skill assessments must be tailored to user scales, predictands of interest…probably cannot all be done by NCEP. • many users (such as RFCs) may downscale products themselves • provide raw forecast-component data as well as semi-calibrated/MM-combination. • When data become available, engage with informed users from different sectors to firm up products / services

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