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Climate-Flow Forecast Research Motivations

This research aims to improve water management decisions by studying the predictability of regional climate and flow forecasts. It focuses on the Colorado Basin and explores the correlation between precipitation and Nino 3.4 index, as well as the contribution of different rivers to Lake Powell inflow. The research also includes the development of flow forecasts based on the CFS model for Reclamation water management.

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Climate-Flow Forecast Research Motivations

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  1. Climate-Flow Forecast Research Motivations • ISI climate predictability is relatively limited in our region (CB) • water management in 7 states depends on regional climate and flow forecasts • plot -- JFM Precip correlation with Nino 3.4, lag 1 season

  2. Linkage to Water/Energy Management • Average contribution to Lake Powell Apr-Jul inflow: • Green River 34% • Colorado River 50% • San Juan River 13% In development… CFS-based flow forecasts for Reclamation water management Stakeholder Allocations Reclamation Midterm-Probabilistic Model Graphic from Dr. Katrina Grantz, Bureau of Reclamation 2 2

  3. Example of Experimental Ensembles Flow into Lake Powell GFS and/or CFS based ensembles: CBRFC & CNRFC experimental products updated daily GFS CFS Contact: Andy Wood (Andy.Wood@noaa.gov) 3

  4. SI/Y2 Climate and Streamflow Forecasting Workshop NOAA/NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, UT – March 21-22, 2011 Organized by Sponsored by CBRFC Colorado Water Conservation Board Reclamation NIDIS Academic Researchers Gillies & Wang, USU Troch, UA Piechota, UNLV Moradkani, PSU Rajagopalan, CSU Wolter, CU Streamflow Forecasting Research Development Operations CBRFC Partners in Water Management Reclamation Colorado Basin Others: Becky Smith (student, CSU); Sponsors (CWCB) and Consultant (RTI)

  5. Testbed Data

  6. Climate-Flow Forecast Needs • NWS Hydrology strategy depends on REFORECASTS • a decade of experience showing that we must calibrate climate/wx forecasts to our hydrology model input characteristics • water management decisions affected by long persistence • months to seasons: land surface storages (soil, snow) • years: artificial reservoirs, groundwater • ISI to multi-year sequences are critical to stakeholders • historical analogs are informative – hindcasts serve this purpose too • What about downscaling/calibration, skill? • hydrologists have been very active • efforts by climate forecast producers will be appreciated, but… • skill assessments must be tailored to user scales, predictands of interest…probably cannot all be done by NCEP. • many users (such as RFCs) may downscale products themselves • provide raw forecast-component data as well as semi-calibrated/MM-combination. • When data become available, engage with informed users from different sectors to firm up products / services

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