Quantifying WEF Interdependencies for Mitigating Resource Uncertainties in Developing Countries

1. Quantifying WEF Interdependencies for Mitigating Resource Uncertainties in Developing Countries Risk Governance Research Workshop Lisbon, Instituto Superior Tecnico, June 25, 2014 Afreen Siddiqi, Ph.D. Research Scientist, MIT Visiting Scholar, Harvard Kennedy School

2. Increased demands and new technologies have created the ‘water-energy-food’ nexus • Food, water, and energy are increasingly inter-linked across different segments of their value chains • water is used in extracting and processing fossil fuel, and cooling electric power plants • energy is needed for pumping ground water, desalination, distribution, and treatment • energy is used to power agricultural machinery, process and transport food • adoption of bio-fuel has raised concerns for adequate food supply and use of water Understanding and accounting for these interconnections is important for resource use-efficiency, socio-economic growth, and long term sustainability

3. World Economic Forum: Global Risks Assessment 2011 • Demand for water, food and energy is expected to rise by 30-50% in the next two decades • Economic disparities incentivize short-term responses in production and consumption that undermine long term sustainability • Shortages could cause social and political instability, geopolitical conflict and irreparable environmental damage. • Any strategy that focuses on one part of the water-energy-food nexus without considering its interconnections risks serious unintended consequences The water-food-energy nexus A cluster of risks within 37 selected global risks as seen by members of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Councils and supported by a survey of 580 global leaders and decision-makers Source: Global Risks 2011, World Economic Forum.

4. Journal publication trends in Compendex database show emergence of ‘nexus’ research on water, energy, and food water OR energy OR food AND nexus water AND energy AND nexus

5. Indus River Basin in Pakistan AGRICULTURE KPK 20.1% INDUSTRY GDP SERVICES 54.4% Punjab 25.5% Balochistan Sindh POPULATION: 180 MILLION POPULATION GROWTH RATE: 1.8% 82% URBAN Siddiqi, A., Wescoat, J. L., (2013), “Energy use in large-scale irrigated agriculture in the Punjab province of Pakistan”, Water International, 38 (5), pp 571-586. (*Editors Choice Article)

6. Research Q: What is the energy intensity in large-scale irrigated agriculture in Pakistan? • We base our analysis on the Indus basin in Pakistan • a country of 180 million people intimately dependent on the Indus river for water, food, and energy •  human impact • acute shortage of energy and water, and insufficient access to nutrition •  necessary conditions present for action • major institutional re-structuring and infrastructure planning under-way •  finite possibility of implementing solutions

7. Global Map of Irrigation http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/irrigationmap/index10.stm Source: FAO

8. The Indus Basin length (km) : 3,180 annual flow (km3) : 207 Avg. Discharge (m3/s) : 6600 Basin Area (km2) : 1,005,786 Total Population (Million) : 237 Basin Precipitation (mm/yr): 423 Source: Laghari et al. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2012: 1063-1083.

9. Large part of the Indus Basin is arid • Low precipitation and high ET render the region largely arid. • Rain fed agriculture is limited. Ref: Laghari et al. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2012: 1063-1083.

10. Despite the aridity, the area is a major agricultural region through irrigation Image by James Wescoat

11. Indus basin irrigation system is among the world’s largest network of surface canals • ~129 km3 of water is diverted annually to the canal network for irrigating 44 million acres • There are large delivery losses (40% – 60%) in the surface system that has led to expansion of pumped irrigation Key Features of Surface Irrigation System

12. Canal water availability has declined over past decades(largely during the winter cropping season) Total (annual) Kharif (summer) Rabi (winter) The linear trend for Rabi is an average decrease of 252 Billion CM per year The overall trend is a decrease of 182 Billion Cubic meters each year for canal withdrawals in Punjab

13. A conjunctive irrigation system has emerged with surface and ground water use that now depends on energy Dot Density: 1 dot = 500 Tubewells Tubewells in 1995 Tubewells in 2010 Using district level tubewell installation data, we used GIS Mapping to map pumping density in Punjab

14. Acute energy shortages are impacting all sectors of the economy Energy Shortage Context in Pakistan Estimated Electricity Deficit in 2011 Siddiqi, et. al, “An empirical analysis of the hydropower portfolio in Pakistan”, Energy Policy, Vol. 50, 2012

15. A massive pumping system draws water from the ground to augment surface water supplies for agriculture off-grid distributed system

16. Reported data of energy use in agriculture provides only partial information of total energy used in the sector Data Source: Energy Year Book, HDIP (2010, 2012)

17. Top down data coupled with bottom up calculations were used to estimate energy use in agriculture Fuel Type Farm Machinery Farm Operations direct energy use Tractors (< 55 HP) High Speed Diesel (HSD) Field Operations Tractors (> 55 HP) HSD Tube wells Water Pumping Light Diesel Oil (LDO) LDO Tube wells Electric Tube wells Electricity in- direct energy use Fertilizer Application Natural Gas Fertilizer Production

18. Pumping system and farming machinery stock levels used for bottom up estimation of HSD consumption • Operation and usage data obtained from Punjab Agricultural Machinery Census of 1994 and 2004 • Annual fuel use volume (Vkfuel) for each type of element (power level and fuel use type) was estimated as: where: Sk: stock level of machinery in year k cfuel: fuel consumption /hr U: annual utilization t: operating hours per day d: number of operating days per year

19. Benchmarking of the results showed reasonable agreement with reported data • The ratio of HSD motors used for water pumping changes from 24% (of total installed base) in 1994 census to 80% in the 2004 census. • This shift in fuel type contributes to steady decline of LDO sales • We compared country-level results of Pak-IEM model (which is MARKAL adapted for Pakistan) Source: Pakistan Integrated Energy Model (Pak-IEM) – Final Report Vol. I, 2010 Electricity LDO HSD

20. Water pumping is estimated to account for 61% of direct energy use in 2010 in farm-level operations HSD TW pumping field (HSD tractor) operations Electric pumping LDO TW pumping

21. Reported estimates for agriculture (that exclude HSD) show only a 3% share in total energy use in the province in 2010 Estimation Adjusted Energy Use in Sectors (Punjab) [kToe] Domestic: 1764 Industry: 1785 Agriculture: 3118 Commercial: 287 Transport: 2634 Power: 5305 Other: 366 Reported Energy Use in Sectors (Punjab) [kToe] Domestic: 1764 Industry: 1785 Agriculture: 467 Commercial: 287 Transport: 5265 Power: 5305 Other: 366

22. Water, food, and energy security is about human welfare –the resource-use efficiency needs to be improved At the provincial level in Punjab (between 1995-2010): • Direct energy intensity has risen 80% (from 1 to 1.8 MJ per kg of crop produced) • Fertilizer use intensity has risen 85% from 99 kg/ha to 184 kg/ha • Total crop production has increased only 31% “Due to declining performance of the sector, as well as increased cost of inputs and inflation, the cost of food per head in the province has gone beyond Rs.3000 [$30] per month” (DAWN, March 25, 2013)

23. Future work: Integrated modeling of water, energy, crop production, for water, food, and energy security

24. In principle, policy makers acknowledge importance of integrated planning; in practice it has been hard to do so due to technical and institutional hurdles • Knowledge gap in resource inter-linkages is a major impediment towards improved policy • Strategic organizational linkages, and enhanced rules for infrastructure planning and resource policy can be easy first steps towards improving decision-making Summary “The vast gains in human welfare from improved provision of food, energy and water – and the spectre of losing this access through shortsighted policies that fail to recognize the complex interactions of these three issues – suggest that the Energy Water Food nexus must be prioritized both by the analytical policy-support community and policy-makers” (Bazilian et al, Energy Policy, 2011)

25. QUESTIONS?

26. HSD and LDO • Two main grades of diesel fuel are marketed in India and Pakistan, High Speed Diesel (HSD) and Light diesel oil (LDO). • HSD is a 100% distillate fuel while LDO is a blend of distillate fuel with a small proportion of residual fuel. • HSD is normally used as a fuel for high speed diesel engines operating above 750 rpm i.e. buses, lorries, generating sets, locomotives, pumping sets etc. Gas turbine requiring distillate fuels normally make use of HSD as fuel. • LDO is used for diesel engines, generally of the stationery type operating below 750 rpm Ref: http://www.petroleumbazaar.com/hsd/hsdappli1.htm

27. Energy estimates for agriculture show that the sector accounted for 20% of total energy use in Punjab in 2010 Energy Use in Sectors (Punjab) [kToe] Domestic: 1764 Industry: 1785 Agriculture: 3118 Commercial: 287 Transport: 2634* Power: 5305 Other: 366 Total: 15259 Water pumping (~1909 kToe) is 12% of total energy use in the province in 2010. Farm operations with tractors (~ 1209 kToe) is 8% of total energy use in 2010. *HSD use estimate for agriculture was subtracted from official HSD transport numbers keeping the reported total energy use for the province

28. Benefits of more holistic policy & regulatory design would likely be: • economic efficiency • resource efficiency • improved livelihood options • and public health • Negative consequences can include • impacts on communities • commodity prices • sub-optimal infrastructure design • environmental degradation Energy, water, food policy have interwoven concerns from ensuring access to price volatility to environmental impacts

29. Surface irrigation system serves to redistribute meltwaters as ground water recharge Snow and icemelt from glaciers Large surface storage Extensive distribution network 1. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Monsoon/printall.php

30. Energy, water, food policy have interwoven concerns from ensuring access to price volatility to environmental impacts • Benefits of more holistic policy & • regulatory design would likely be: • economic efficiency • resource efficiency • improved livelihood options • and public health • Negative consequences can include • impacts on communities • commodity prices • sub-optimal infrastructure design • environmental degradation • All three areas : • have many billions of people without access (quantity or quality or both) • have rapidly growing global demand • have resource constraints • have different regional availability, supply, and demand • operate in heavily regulated markets • are ‘‘global goods’’, involve international trade and have global implications • have deep security issues as they are fundamental to the functioning of society • require the explicit identification and treatment of risks • have strong interdependencies with climate change and the environment Bazilian et al., “Considering the energy, water and food nexus: Towards an integrated modelling approach”, Energy Policy, 2011

31. Background • 70% of global freshwater use is in the agricultural sector • Rainfed agriculture covers 80% of cultivated land globally, and produces 60% of crops • Irrigated agriculture represents 20% of cultivated land and accounts for 40% of crop production • irrigated agriculture grew 1.5% annually from 1950s-1990s • Un-reliable surface water supplies increasingly replaced with ground water withdrawals – a shift that requires more energy The shift from gravity-fed, surface water to pumped ground water and pressurized field application systems has increased the coupling between water and energy in large-scale irrigation

32. Future Work:Incorporating Water Availability Uncertainties • Planning for uncertainty in water availability • shifts from historical norms – Indus is considered one of the most vulnerable rivers to climate change • decreases in surface water supplies will likely further increase pumped irrigation Glacier Area Glacier Area % Glacier Area [km2] Decade in the future % change Expected shifts in annual influx in the Indus River [2] [1] Himalayan Glaciers, National Research Council, 2012 [2] Pakistan’s Water Economy: Running Dry, John Briscoe, Oxford Univ. Press, 2006

33. World Economic Forum: Global Risks

34. Quantitative Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems for Data-driven Planning and Decision-Making Investigating interactions between large-scale, critical infrastructure systems (such as that of water, energy, and agriculture) with the aim of informing policy, planning, and design for improving resource use efficiency and enabling long-term sustainability Modeling and Computation Graph Theory & Networks Analysis Dependency Structure Mapping Decision Analysis Stakeholders Analysis Systems Dynamics

35. Urban Water-Energy Couplings Uncertainty Drivers: Population Growth Climate Change Factors: Urban Form Water Scarcity System Architecture

36. Urban Water Cycle: Masdar City, UAE Siddiqi, A., de Weck, O.L., (2013) “Quantifying End-Use Energy Intensity of the Urban Water Cycle”, ASCEJournal of Infrastructure Systems, 19 (4), pp 474-485

37. Building level water sources modeled in the study include municipal water, rainwater, and recycled grey water

38. Energy needs for Building-level Water Use 1. Energy for Water Heating 2. Energy for On-site Pumping 3. Energy for On-site Recycling VH : volume of heated water ρ : density of water c : specific heat capacity ΔT : temperature difference αhi : ith application hot water fraction vi: ith application water use volume er : energy intensity of recycling hF : floor height αl : pipe losses F : total number of floors in building 4. Building-level Energy for Water Use:

39. Computational Framework

40. Sample Outputs

41. Case Study: Masdar City • Masdar City is in the out-skirts of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates • It is 6 km2 , planned to house 50,000 people, 1500 businesses, and a technical university. • Initial cost estimates were at $22 billion and development time was ~10 years • It was originally targeted to be the world’s first zero-carbon city

42. Masdar City: Plot-level Master Plan

43. Energy for all Water Segments Estimate for Masdar City Estimated Energy for Water Cycle [GWh] ΔE Annual Water Demand [Million m3]

44. Energy by Water Segment Estimated Annual Energy Requirement In Water Cycle for Masdar GWh Water Demand Scenario

45. Comparative Analysis Comparison of Energy Intensity of Masdar Water Cycle Across the range of water demand scenarios considered, the energy intensity for Masdar City is ~5-7 kWh/m3

46. Summary • End-use segment compares almost equally in energy intensity with production segment (in case of Masdar) • Water heating – even in hot climates- makes up a large share of water-related energy use in buildings • Water efficiency in end-use segment is a high-impact lever for influencing energy consumption in the urban water cycle • water efficiency in end-use has largest multiplier effect for energy • water conservation measures can be incentivized from an energy and financial savings perspectives • Water-sector energy efficiency incentives should be targeted for both utilities and end-users

47. Energy for Large-Scale Irrigation IBIS – Distributory Network Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) Major Reservoirs: 3 No. of Barrages: 16 No. of Inter-link Canals: 12 No. of Canal Systems: 44 No. of Water Courses: 107,000 Avg. Canal Diversions: 104.7 MAF Groundwater Abstraction: 42 MAF No. of Wells: > 750,000 Canal Command: 36 M acres

48. Research Q: How are energy intensity and water use efficiency coupled in large-scale irrigated agriculture? • Large-scale irrigated agriculture is at the core of this nexus • We base our analysis on the Indus basin in Pakistan • a country of 180 million people intimately dependent on the Indus river for water, food, and energy •  human impact • acute shortage of energy and water, and in-sufficient access to nutrition •  necessary conditions present for action • major institutional re-structuring and infrastructure planning under-way •  finite possibility of implementing solutions http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/irrigationmap/index10.stm length (km) : 3,180 annual flow (km3) : 207 Avg. Discharge (m3/s) : 6600 Basin Area (Million km2) : 1 Total Population (Million) : 237 Precipitation (mm/yr): 423 Ref: Laghari et al. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16, 2012: 1063-1083.