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CETA: Lessons from NAFTA Eugene Beaulieu , Professor, Department of Economics and

CETA: Lessons from NAFTA Eugene Beaulieu , Professor, Department of Economics and Program Director International Economics, The School of Public Policy The University of Calgary. CETA: Lessons from NAFTA. Motivation for these historic agreements The political economy

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CETA: Lessons from NAFTA Eugene Beaulieu , Professor, Department of Economics and

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  1. CETA: Lessons from NAFTA • Eugene Beaulieu, • Professor, Department of Economics • and • Program Director • International Economics, • The School of Public Policy • The University of Calgary

  2. CETA: Lessons from NAFTA • Motivation for these historic agreements • The political economy • Key features of NAFTA/CETA • Impacts of NAFTA – lessons from CUSTA/NAFTA • Economic and political importance of CETA for Canada www.policyschool.ca

  3. Motivation for CUSTA/NAFTA • US protectionism/unilateralism • Strong economic case: • Harris/Cox and the MacDonald Commission • CUSTA and NAFTA were historic agreements at the time www.policyschool.ca

  4. Political economy of CUSTA/NAFTA CUSTA: • Enormous political debate in Canada – culminating in 1988 referendum on free trade (aka general election) • Not a political issue in the US NAFTA: • the opposite “Little white lies and malicious whoppers” Paul Krugman CETA: • An important agreement but not a big political issue in Canada • Not a big political issue in the EU www.policyschool.ca

  5. www.policyschool.ca

  6. Impact of CUSTA/NAFTA CUSTA/NAFTA extremely successful • Reduction in trade barriers increased NA trade dramatically – and trade dependence • Rationalization, increased scale • NA supply chains • Increased productivity • Maybe “too” successful? • North American file has been dropped – complacency, lack of political will www.policyschool.ca

  7. www.policyschool.ca

  8. www.policyschool.ca

  9. www.policyschool.ca

  10. www.policyschool.ca

  11. www.policyschool.ca

  12. www.policyschool.ca

  13. Economic and political importance of CETA for Canada • Trade diversification • Strategic • Push NAFTA agenda www.policyschool.ca

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