Modeling and Simulation Challenges and the New Vehicle NRA

1. Modeling and Simulation Challenges and the New Vehicle NRA Ken WrightSensis Corporation January 28, 2010

2. Analyze the combined impacts of advanced vehicles and NextGen Background

3. Vehicles Cruise @ M 1.6 41k ft to 53k ft SST CESTOL Cruise @ M 0.78, 35k – 40k ft Cruise @ M 0.6, 35k ft VLJ Cruise @ M 0.5, 25k ft UAS LCTR Cruise @ M 0.28, 15k ft 400 nm 750 nm 1200 nm 2000 nm 4000 nm

4. Background (Continued) • Timeframe • 2025 • 2040 (roughly 2 times today’s traffic levels) • 3X (3 times today’s traffic levels) • Tasks • Design vehicles • Develop usage scenarios • Compute delay • Compute environmental impacts • Compute metroplex impacts • Compute safety impacts • And much more

5. Model Infrastructure

6. To do NAS-wide simulation in ACES we need: BADA Data Schedules/Capacities ACES tracks used by AEDT to compute environmental impact The Focus of this Presentation is ACES

7. General Modeling Simulation Observations • Designing good experiments is tough • Results often seem obvious • Difficult to translate concepts into hypotheses that leverage model strengths • Difficult to spot erroneous results • Large datasets, complex interactive models • Figuring what’s going on below the surface is difficult • Some modules don’t work well with large datasets • Results not significantly impacted • New features can increase run time, without affecting results • ACES 5.0 vs ACES 6.2 compatibility issues

8. Challenge: Demand Generation

9. JPDO-Provided Demand Sets

10. Huge delays at LAS and ATL due to capacity-demand imbalance dominatesystemwide-results

13. ACES-Specific Observations • MPAS (physics model) currently can’t fly unconventional vehicles • Cruise-Efficient STOL Aircraft (cruises too slow) • Supersonic transport (cruises too fast) • Tiltrotor (takes off like a helicopter) • Tail-tracking • Terminal area tracks • Conflict Detection and Resolution • Weather obstacles (Back-up)

14. Tail-Tracking • One-third of all delay is propagated delay • ACES tail-tracking doesn’t quite work

15. Sensis Itinerary-Creation Algorithm gives 5-6 Stages per Airframe

16. Increase in delay due to tail-tracking too small to be realistic

17. Aircraft is in two placesat the same time 1 2 3 4

18. Short flights show discontinuous tracks • Flights having great circle distance less than about 60 nm fly discontinuous “X” routes • Affects 3,000 to 3,500 ACES flights in 2040 dataset (about 3.5% of total) • Because flights fly longer routes than necessary, amount of time spent airborne is too long.

22. Flight from TEB to LGA is Airborne for 31 Minutes. Average speed = 21 mph

23. Conflict Detection and Resolution • Not used in New Vehicle project • Causes about as many conflicts as it resolves

25. CDR Causes Collision

26. CDR Causes Collision

27. CDR Causes Collision

28. CDR Causes Collision

29. CDR Causes Collision

30. CDR Causes Collision

31. CDR Causes Collision

32. CDR Causes Collision

33. CDR Causes Collision

34. CDR Causes Collision

35. CDR Causes Collision

36. CDR Causes Collision

37. CDR Causes Collision

38. CDR Causes Collision

39. CDR Causes Collision

40. CDR Causes Collision

41. CDR Causes Collision

42. CDR Causes Collision

43. CDR Causes Collision

44. CDR Causes Collision

45. CDR Causes Collision Aircraft sense impending 5-nm conflict

46. CDR Causes Collision Aircraft move to avoid 5-nm conflict

47. CDR Causes Collision Aircraft move to avoid 5-nm conflict

48. CDR Causes Collision Boom!

49. CDR Causes Collision

50. CDR Causes Collision