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Explore the evolution of securitized credit investments, their comparison to corporate credit, and diversification benefits across different subsectors. Learn about downside protection, structure diversification, attractive yields, and opportunities in securitized sub-sectors. Discover the growth of credit risk transfer in non-agency RMBS and the resurgence of whole business securitizations. Gain insights on ETF flows and upcoming market trends in the securitized credit landscape. Stay informed with Voya's comprehensive outlook on securitized credit investing.
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Securitized Credit: A Through the Cycle Investment The Evolution of an Asset Class IM0730-43861-0719
Defining the Securitized Opportunity Set Defining the Securitized Credit Universe Comparing Securitized to Corporate Credit As of 12/31/18 Source: Corporate AUM – Bloomberg Barclays Investment Grade Corporate Index, Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Index, S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index. Securitized AUM – Bloomberg Barclays CMBS Index, Bloomberg Barclays ABS Index, Bloomberg Barclays MBS Index, Non-Agency RMBS data is from SIFMA.
Diversification to Other Sectors Through Low Correlation • Historically, securitized credit assets have exhibited low correlations to other risk products, providing portfolio diversification • Data is from 1/30/10 to 12/31/18, except for the Voya Non-Agency RMBS Composite which has data from February 2015 to September 2018 and the Voya Securitized Credit which has data from March 2011 to September 2018. Monthly Total Returns from S&P Leveraged Loan Index, Bloomberg Barclays High Yield Index, Bloomberg Barclays US Corporate Index, Bloomberg Barclays Treasury Index, Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index, S&P 500 Total Return, JP Morgan CLOIE Index, Bloomberg Barclays US MBS Index, Bloomberg Barclays ABS Index, Bloomberg Barclays CMBS Index, Bloomberg Barclays US Securitized Index, Voya IM Non-Agency RMBS and Voya Securitized Credit.
Diversification to Other Sectors Through Downside Protection • Securitized Credit vs. other sectors: • Source: Voya Investment Management, J.P Morgan and Bloomberg Barclays. Diversified Securitized Credit approach based on Voya’s Securitized Credit – Core Plus carve out composite. High yield = Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield. EMD = JPMorgan EMBI Plus Index. Senior loans = the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Diversification Across Securitized Subsectors • Different sub-sectors, driven by different cycles with a range of credit ratings ABS CLO CMBS Non-Agency RMBS CRTs By cycle By rating • Source: Voya Investment Management
Analysis Reveals Further Diversification Across Sub-Sectors and Securities • The emphasis of each dimension of analysis changes with sub-sectors, highlighting diversification ABS CMBS Collateral Collateral Structure Third Parties Structure Third Parties RMBS CLO Collateral Collateral Structure Third Parties Structure Third Parties
Diversification at the ‘Deal’ Level • Collateral analysis reveals a richness of deal-level opportunities and diversification, highlighting every CUSIP has a story • Source: Voya Investment Management • For illustrative purposes only
Diversification Through Structure Sample CMBS Waterfall Sample CMBS Spreads by Tranche As of 12/31/18 Source: Voya Investment Management and Bloomberg The specific securities identified and described above are for illustrative purposes only and are being shown to demonstrate our investment process They were not selected based solely on performance and do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for our client accounts. It should not be assumed that investments in the securities identified and discussed were or will be profitable. This deal was selected as it’s the newest issue, most representative of a generic, conduit CMBS security available to investors.
Attractive Yield Without Extending Duration Yield vs. Duration As of 12/31/18 Source: Bloomberg Barclays Corporate Index, Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index, Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Government Index, Bloomberg Barclays CMBS Index, Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Securitized Index, Bloomberg Barclays U.S. MBS Index, Bloomberg Barclays ABS Index, J.P. Morgan Collateralized Loan Obligation Index (CLOIE), Voya Non-Agency RMBS Strategy
Fixed and Floating Opportunities Across Securitized • Securitized Sub-Sectors by Coupon Type CRTs CLO Agency MBS CMBS ABS Non-Agency RMBS Mostly Floating Coupon Fixed & Floating Coupon Mostly Fixed Coupon • Source: Voya Investment Management
ETF Flows That Disrupt Corporate Credit Are Not a Factor In Securitized ETF AUM: Corporate and Securitized ETF Flows As of 12/31/18 Source: AUM per Morningstar, Flows per ICI Simfund
Securitized CreditMarket Evolution: CRT Case Study • As the legacy portion of the non-agency RMBS market shrinks, credit risk transfer enables investors to maintain allocations to residential mortgage credit • Outstanding Debt ($ billions) • As of 12/31/18 • Source: SIFMA, Bloomberg • Most recent available.
Resurgent Issuance in an Existing Sub-Sector Whole Business Securitizations Whole Business Securitization Issuance As of 12/31/18 Source: JP Morgan and Voya Investment Management • Largely Franchise Fee and Intellectual Property related • Similar to traditional ABS in the securitization of cash flows • Different from traditional ABS as the assets are not ‘self-liquidating’
The U.S. Housing “Trade” is Far From Over • Despite home values surpassing pre-crisis peaks and higher total household debt, the U.S. population has grown by 24 million people, the U.S. labor force is 8 million more than in 2007, the current number of households and nonfarm payrolls are higher, by 9% and 5% respectively and, at $19 trillion, GDP is 34% higher than it was in 2007 • With stricter lending dynamics in play, leverage is less and mortgage loans exhibit credit characteristics vastly superior to those underwritten before the financial crisis • As of 12/31/18 • 1 The Case-Shiller 2007 value has been held constant at the pre-crisis peak level set July 2006. • * As of 09/30/18 • Source: US Census Bureau, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Mortgage Debt Cycle Still Early vs. Corporate Credit Corporate Debt Cycle Mortgage Debt Cycle 74% 11 47% 10,000 46% 69% 10 9,000 45% 64% 8,000 9 44% 59% 7,000 8 43% 54% 42% 6,000 7 49% 41% 5,000 6 44% 40% 4,000 5 39% 39% 38% 3,000 34% 4 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 1 St Dev Average Total Debt Debt/GDP Debt/GDP Debt/GDP Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, BLS and Voya Investment Management Corporate Debt as represented by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Non-Financial Corporate Credit Instruments through 06/30/18, Mortgage Debt as represented by Federal Reserve Bank of New York Survey of Household Debt & Credit through 09/30/18.
Sub-Sectors Are at Different Points in Their Cycles Source: Bloomberg Barclays, S&P, Voya Investment Management As of 12/21/18
Creating Diversified Opportunities Across Risk Types The combination of legacy and exposures to new and existing collateral types provides an experienced investor the opportunity to build and manage an attractive long-term allocation across an array of risk appetites Key Agency RMBS Non-Agency RMBS ABS CLO CMBS Benchmark A. FFELP SL Class B AA 10Y I. FNCL 3.5 Libor ZVOAS L. CLO 2.0 B P. SFR E U. USD Lev Loans V. LCF Subprime B. Timeshare ABS 3Y A J. FNCL 3.0 Libor ZVOAS M. CLO 2.0 AAA Q. OTR CMBS 7yr ASB W. Jumbo Fixed C. Private SL Class AA 10Y K. FNCL 4.0 Libor ZVOAS N. CLO 2.0 BBB R. OTR CMBS 10yr (AA) X. Alt-A Floater D. Container ABS A 5Y O. CLO 2.0 AA S. OTR CMBS 10yr LCF (AAA) Y. Option ARM E. Consumer ABS A 3Y T. SFR F F. Rental Car ABS 5Y AAA G. Prime Auto-Fixed BBB 5Y H. Subprime Auto-Fixed BBB 5Y As of 01/11/19. Source: Voya Investment Management
Voya’s Outlook for Securitized Sub-Sectors ABS CLO CMBS Non-Agency RMBS CRTs Agency RMBS Outlook Key risk • Source: Voya Investment Management • As of 12/31/18
Principal Risks • The principal risks are generally those attributable to bond investing. Holdings are subject to market, issuer, credit, prepayment, extension, and other risks, and their values may fluctuate. Market risk is the risk that securities may decline in value due to factors affecting the securities markets or particular industries. Issuer risk is the risk that the value of a security may decline for reasons specific to the issuer, such as changes in its financial condition. The strategy invests in mortgage-related securities, which can be paid off early if the borrowers on the underlying mortgages pay off their mortgages sooner than scheduled. If interest rates are falling, the strategy will be forced to reinvest this money at lower yields. Conversely, if interest rates are rising, the expected principal payments will slow, thereby locking in the coupon rate at below market levels and extending the security's life and duration while reducing its market value. We deem all sources to be reliable, but cannot guarantee accuracy and completeness.