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Nguyen Viet Cuong

Comments on the research proposal “School Attendance, Labor Supply and Formality. An Impact Evaluation of PANES” (Team leader: Veronica Amarante). Nguyen Viet Cuong. Summary.

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Nguyen Viet Cuong

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  1. Comments on the research proposal“School Attendance, Labor Supply and Formality. An Impact Evaluation of PANES”(Team leader: Veronica Amarante) Nguyen Viet Cuong

  2. Summary • The research aims to evaluate the impacts of a cash transfer program (called Ingreso Ciudadano of PANES) on child labor, child school attendance, household income and labor: • Regression discontinuity. • Difference-in-differences. • The research questions are well defined and very policy relevant: • Inform policy makers on the impact of an important antipoverty program. • Be helpful for the program improvement.

  3. Program description • The program selection should be discussed more detailed. • It is not clear what criteria and the threshold are used to select the beneficiaries. Is income or score/index (estimated from probit model) used? • In addition, it is not very necessary to discuss other components of PANES.

  4. Data • The date of administrative records of PANES is not mentioned in the proposal. • Which data are used as the baseline? If the administrative data are combined with the follow-up surveys for difference-in-differences estimation, they should be consistent in terms of questionnaires, interview instruments and sampling design.

  5. Methodology • Economic theory on impact of transfers on income and labor? • Transfers increase investment => higher long-run impact. • Transfer can reduce working incentive => lower long-run/short-run impact.

  6. Methodology (cont.) • Regression discontinuity: • Endogeneity of the transfer program. • Endogeneity of score? • Difference-in-differences: • Attrition problem. • Estimation of the impact of the program at the threshold like the regression discontinuity. • Other methods: • Matching. • Fixed-effect regression using panel data.

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