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Bush and the Ayatollah

Bush and the Ayatollah. Shiite Politics in Iraq Juan Cole (www.juancole.com). The Prophet’s Family. Daughter Fatimah Son-in-law Ali Grandsons Hasan and Husain. Ashura. Prophet’s grandson Husain mounts rebellion 680 killed on 10 th of Muharram Called Ashura’ Shiites mourn, flagellate.

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Bush and the Ayatollah

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  1. Bush and the Ayatollah Shiite Politics in Iraq Juan Cole (www.juancole.com)

  2. The Prophet’s Family • Daughter Fatimah • Son-in-law Ali • Grandsons Hasan and Husain

  3. Ashura • Prophet’s grandson Husain mounts rebellion 680 • killed on 10th of Muharram • Called Ashura’ • Shiites mourn, flagellate

  4. Wolfowitz on Iraqi Shiites • “The Iraqis are . . . by and large quite secular. They are overwhelmingly Shi‘a which is different from the Wahabis of the peninsula, and they don’t bring the sensitivity of having the holy cities of Islam being on their territory.” • -Paul Wolfowitz, Deputy SecDef, NPR, Feb. 18, 2003

  5. Shi’ite Crescent (King Abdullah) Iran 90 % (63 mn.) Afghanistan 15 % ( 4 mn) Iraq 62 % (15 mn.) Pakistan 13 % (19 mn) Bahrain 65 % ( 0.25 mn) Saudi Arabia 10 % ( 1.5 mn) Lebanon 40% ( 1.4 mn.) Syria 16 % ( 2.7 mn) India 0.5% ( 6 mn)

  6. Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr (d. 1980) • Dawa Party founded 1958 to work for Islamic state • Al-Sadr theorizes Islamic government • Allows consultative “elections” • Wants Islamic Law, Economy

  7. Iranian Theocracy • 1979 Iranian revolution • Khomeini: Guardianship of the Jurisprudent

  8. Saddam Cracks down 1980 • Da’wa unrest in late 1970s • Muhammad Baqir al-Sadr and other Shiite leaders are executed • Capital crime to belong to the al-Da`wa Party

  9. Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim • Becomes head of Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq in Tehran, 1984 • SCIRI mounts Khomeinist insurgency

  10. Jaafari and Dawa • Ibrahim Jaafari • B. Karbala 1947 • Medical School Mosul • Joined Dawa 1968 • Jailed 1970s • Fled to Iran 1980 • Went to London 1989

  11. Shiite Leadership In 1990s • After failed 1991 uprising • Older, nonpolitical Shiites follow Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani • From Iran, came in 1951 • Younger, more radical Shiites follow Ayatollah Muhammad Sadiq al-Sadr

  12. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani • Emerges after fall of Saddam, April, 2003 • Insisted on election of drafters of new constitution • Wanted early direct elections • Wanted American withdrawal as soon as feasible

  13. Islamic Law • Sistani wants Islamic law as law of land • Clerics would be judges • Would issue fatwas (legal rulings)

  14. Nomocracy as Theocracy • Sistani allows lay parliament, prime minister • But wants religious judiciary • With power of judicial review

  15. Sistani: Two Sources of Legitimacy • Government must be elected because sovereignty lies in Iraqi people • Must be approved by Grand Ayatollahs • Rousseau wins

  16. Two-Stage Theory of SCIRI • The al-Hakims believe Iraq will have two stages • 1. Pluralistic, parliamentary government • 2. Islamic Republic when Shiite majority asserts itself

  17. Sadr Movement • Demands immediate withdrawal of US • Wants Khomeini-style Islamic Republic • Militant demonstrations

  18. Clashes with US Troops • April 2, 2004 • Bremer suddenly comes after Muqtada • Muqtada launches uprising throughout South • Mahdi Militia • Sistani helps with negotiated settlement in Najaf June 1

  19. “Transfer of Sovereignty” • Bremer flees June 28, no public ceremony • UN/ US appointed Iyad Allawi as interim PM • UNSC Resolution 1546 prescribes elections by Jan. 2005

  20. Najaf II • Second Battle of Najaf Aug. 2004 • Massive US bombardment of city • Threats to storm shrine of Ali • Sistani saves the day with march on city

  21. Fallujah Alienates Sunni Arabs • After Fallujah campaign, Nov. 2004 • Association of Muslim Scholars calls for boycott of elections • Iraqi Islamic Party withdraws • Mosul, other cities fall into chaos with counter-attacks

  22. Sistani’s List • Sistani appoints 6-man committee to unite all major Shiite religious parties in one list, United Iraqi Alliance • SCIRI • Al-Da`wa • 30 Sadrists as independents • Tribal shaikhs of Middle Euphrates

  23. Danger of Sectarian Imbalance • Sunni Arabs do not vote in Jan. 30, 2005 election • Dawa and Supreme Council essentially win • Jaafari Prime Minister

  24. Constitution • No civil legislation may be passed by parliament that contravenes the established laws of Islam • Personal status by religious law where desired • Sistani’s influence

  25. Federalism • Over Sistani’s objections • Shiites accept Federalism, possibility of provincial confederations • Sunnis reject this provision • Sistani declines to urge a vote for the constitution or to endorse a party in Dec. 15 elections

  26. Conclusion • Religious Shiite parties have the momentum • Are likely to dominate next parliament if elections are free and open • Can the US, the Kurds and the Sunni Arabs live with this outcome?

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