Future Insights

1. Future Insights Robin Mannings

2. Robin Mannings Research Foresight Manager BT Adastral Park, Orion 3/7 pp4 Martlesham Heath, Ipswich, IP5 3RE, UK Email robin.mannings@bt.com Tel Int +44 7802 918290 Tel UK 07802 918290

3. Big Issues

4. Discovery, Invention, Innovation & Disruption • Researchers Discover, Invent and then Business Innovates (Technology+Economics+Society) • BUT Unpredicted and rapid innovation can lead to Business Disruption • Some inventions have yet to make an impact, and need other inventions and innovations • “Gunpowder” was invented before the Gun • (Military are often early adopters) • “Disruptive Technology” • Clayton Christensen

5. Disruptive Technology Today Tomorrow’s Customer Tomorrow’s Employee

6. Technology convergence Opportunity Explosion Intelligence Telecomms Robotics Opportunity explosion Positioning Nanotech Computing Biotech Sensors Energy Materials

7. Technology Research • NBIC – Convergence • More significant than .com boom • Nanotech, • Biotech • InfoTech • Cognitive Science or A.I • Moore’s Law Continues • 10 to 20 years • Processing and Storage • New Devices e.g. sensors on chip • ICT becomes very cheap • Quantum Computing?

8. Societal Shift(Philips Research) • Mosaic Society • Collective Society • Discovery Society • Experience Society • Care Society • Sustainable Society

9. Future ICT Technologies • Wireless Networks – WiFi, WiMax • Convergence – e.g BT Fusion (Bluetooth Mobile) • Internet Futures – VOIP, Web Services, IPV6 • Peer to Peer – Decentralisation and Trust • Grid Computing – Federation and Sharing • Open Source Software (and Hardware?) • Information stored locally – 1 bit per 20 atoms! • Semantic Encoding – The Semantic Web, Soft A.I • Low Power Wireless – RFID, NFC, UWB … • Ubiquitous Computing – Ambient Intelligence • Sensor Networks – Nano/Biotech, Lab on a Chip • Disappearing Computers & New Interfaces

10. Fixed Wireless (~10km) LMDS pre-WiMAX WiMAX 802.16d Fixed Wireless (FWA) Mobile Wireless (MWA) Mobile (~1km) GSM/GPRS 3G Circuit Switched Packet Switched 3G HSDPA & HSUPA UMTS-TDD WiMAX: 802.16e/20? PMR (TETRA etc) Mobile TV Local Area Wireless (~100m) WiFi: 802.11? Bluetooth (Class 1) Zigbee Telemetry Bands Personal Wireless (~10m) Bluetooth UWB NFC (~1m) Wireless now and on the horizon

11. New Wireless Disrupters • New Devices, Materials, Standards • Software Radio • Embedded Wireless • Near Field Communications e.g. RFID • Ultra Wideband (UWB) Wireless • Optical Wireless • Oxygen Absorption Band (60GHz.)

12. New Computer Interfaces – e.g. • Haptics (“Technology of Touch”) • Biosensing & Biometrics • Fingerprints, iris scan, facial recognition … • Galvanic skin response • Heart rate • Muscle movements • Brain activity • Everyday Objects as Interfaces • Computers “Disappear!” • Ambient Computing – everywhere and nowhere – “digital bubble”

13. Future Digital Networked Economy • Information Age is still very young • ICT moving into new areas • Provides the means for convergence • Huge economic significance • Helping to solve big problems • Helping people to have richer lives • Computer Science is still advancing • Ubiquitous Computing • Emerging from Research • About “Connecting the World Completely”

14. Different Names – “The Internet of Stuff” • Ubiquitous Computing Big Issues – PARC/Weiser • Pervasive Computing – IBM • Invisible Computing – Microsoft • Ambient Intelligence – Philips • Things That Think – MIT • Disappearing Computer – EU • Virtual Air – BT

15. Sensor Sensor Sensor Sensor Sensor Sensor Pervasive computing Pervasive networking A new sort of infrastructure Smart environments and artefacts - “the Internet of stuff” • Environment is rich in processors, tags, data stores, sensors and communicators • Trillions of Processors Processing Comms Store Store Tag Tag Tag Processing Store Comms Tag Store Comms Tag Processing Mannings 2005

16. Still Camera Video Camera Video Player Audio Player TV Car Entertainment Navigation Devices Kitchen Equipment Remote Controllers Tools Cellphone/Smartphone White Goods Brown Goods Sports Equipment Industrial Plant Lap Top / PDA Handheld Games Medical Equipment Non Electronic Artefacts Packaging and RFID Smart Materials Networked People Wearable Bioelectronics Networked Everything (almost)

17. Opposite to “Virtual Reality” … … leads to “Augmented Reality” Computing enters the Real World and leaves the desktop Weiser 1996

18. Some RFID Tags

19. Intelligence based on context

20. What is RFID? How does it work? • Radio Frequency Identification enables fast & reliable automatic identification of almost anything: • Livestock • People • A chip is connected to an antenna which transmits data when requested by a reader. • Short Range (quasi-passive) use Near Field Comms • Long Range (powered) use Far Field • Pets • Products What are the benefits? What does it cost? • Identifies items uniquely • No line of site required • 100s of tags can be read simultaneously • Tags can be read from up to 100m • Tags can be rewritten 1,000s times • Tags – generally cost from $0.20 to $20 • Readers – generally cost from $200 to up to $6,000 • Prices are falling dramatically RFID overview

21. Future tags technology • Physical “Cookies” • Tag to Tag Communications (peer to peer) • Tag as a Communications System • Tags with Sensors • Battery less – eg Blister Pack Usage Detector • Battery – Environmental Sensing • Tags with Ambient Power Scavenging • New Radio Technology (e.g. UWB)

22. Primary physical Temperature Shock Moisture Orientation Location Light Radiation Secondary sensing Moving Stolen Abused Dangerous Out of Date Indoors / Outdoors Lonely Future Tags with Sensors

26. Computers Everywhere (including in you!)