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Future Energy Insights and Nuclear Power

Future Energy Insights and Nuclear Power. Mark Howells, Professor and head of the division of Energy Systems Analysis (KTH- dESA ) Royal Institute of Technology, SWEDEN. division of Energy Systems Analysis Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden. Contents.

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Future Energy Insights and Nuclear Power

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  1. Future Energy Insights and Nuclear Power Mark Howells, Professor and head of the division of Energy Systems Analysis (KTH-dESA) Royal Institute of Technology, SWEDEN

  2. division of Energy Systems AnalysisRoyal Institute of Technology, Sweden

  3. Contents • Foundations of global energy system shifting • Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries • Retreat from nuclear in some others growth in others • Changing global energy map likely to have significant implications for competiveness & geopolitics • In a resource constrained world, nuclear has a key role to play

  4. A United States oil & gas transformation US oil & gas production Source: World Energy Outlook mboe/d 25 20 Unconventional gas 15 Conventional gas 10 Unconventional oil 5 Conventional oil 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035 The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications well beyond the United States

  5. De-coupling of regional gas prices 20 Source: World Energy Outlook 18 $2012/MBtu 16 Japan (LNG import) 14 12 Europe (German import) 10 8 6 4 US (Henry Hub) 2 0 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 At its lowest level in 2012, natural gas in the United States tradedat around one-fifth of import prices in Europe & one-eighth of those in Japan

  6. A power shift to emerging economies Change in power generation, 2010-2035 Source: World Energy Outlook Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables China India United States European Union Japan 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 -1 000 0 1 000 2 000 TWh TWh Need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in global demand, with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity

  7. Wide variations in the price of power Average household electricity prices, 2035 Source: World Energy Outlook cents/kWh 25 20 2011 OECD average 15 10 2011 Non-OECD average 5 China United States European Union Japan Electricity prices are set to increase with the highest prices persistingin the European Union & Japan, well above those in China & the United States

  8. Insights from an Integrated Global CLEWS** Model Aim: A flexible model with large solution space based on realistic projections. • Demand projections for heat and electricity based on IEA ETP 6oC scenario – assumes no new policy action and continuance of current code of practice. • Renewable energy technologies allowed (not forced) to come in at a rate corresponding to IEA ETP 2oC scenario – non-hydro or biomass RE increase 25fold by 2050, compared to 2009. • CO2 limit based on IEA ETP 6oC scenario – did not want to limit the system. • Yield improvement of land and food production based on FAO projections – food demand connected with population projections **CLEWs – Climate Land Energy Water strategies model Developed by UNDESA and KTH-dESA

  9. Total Power Generation Global CLEWs model

  10. CO2 Tax Scenario • Additional tax on emissions (GHG as CO2-equivalent) of: • Linear increase from 1 to 15 $/tCO2EQ in years 2016-2030 • Linear increase from 15 to 25 $/tCO2EQ in years 2031-2050 • Land use emissions were approximated with a capital cost per land area Global CLEWs model

  11. Power with CO2 tax • Main effects • Less coal • More biomass, gas and nuclear power • Renewables already at maximum market penetration

  12. Land Limitation Scenario • Land use change is responsible for over 30% of global CO2 emissions and it affects biodiversity, ecosystem services etc. • Total land capacity was restricted to current area (no area exchange between climate zones possible) • This meant a necessary intensification of agricultural production (more fertiliser and irrigation) FAO. (2011). LOOKING AHEAD IN WORLD FOOD AND AGRICULTURE: Perspectives to 2050. (P. Conforti, Ed.). Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Global CLEWs model

  13. Power with Land Limitation and CO2 tax • Main effects • Biomass is more expensive or not available • Nuclear is only remaining low-emission power technology • Penetration rates for new technologies would need to be adapted • Other factors (like biomass from waste) are not considered

  14. Nuclear Share Comparison Global CLEWs model

  15. Conclusions • Policy makers face critical choices in reconciling energy, environmental & economic objectives • Changing outlook for energy production & use may redefineenergy pricing, economic competiveness & geopolitical balances • Shifting away from or towards nuclear can have significant implications for a country’s energy security, electricity prices & climate change objectives • In a resource constrained world, nuclear can be an attractive option

  16. Acknowledgements IEA, World Energy outlookUNDESA, GSDR

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