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UFSP 100 Weather Forecasting

UFSP 100 Weather Forecasting. Ross A. Lazear. Why is forecasting the weather so difficult?. • Imagine a rotating sphere 8,000 miles in diameter -Has a bumpy surface -Surrounded by 40-km deep mixture of different gases whose concentrations vary both spatially and over time

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UFSP 100 Weather Forecasting

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  1. UFSP 100Weather Forecasting Ross A. Lazear

  2. Why is forecasting the weather so difficult? • Imagine a rotating sphere 8,000 miles in diameter -Has a bumpy surface -Surrounded by 40-km deep mixture of different gases whose concentrations vary both spatially and over time -Heated, along with its gases, by a nuclear reactor 93,000,000 miles away • Sphere is revolving around the nuclear reactor -Some locations are heated more during one part of the revolution than others • Mixture of gases receives inputs from the surface below -Generally calmly; sometimes violently!

  3. Why is forecasting the weather so difficult?

  4. Why is forecasting the weather so difficult? .....Now, imagine that after observing this gaseous mixture, you are expected to predict its state at multiple locations on the sphere one, two, or more days into the future. This is essentially the task encountered every day by a weather forecaster! Adapted from Ryan, 1982, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

  5. Why the discrepancy?Forecasting is often extremely challenging! There are *many* forecasts made available to the public… *National Weather Service *The Weather Channel *AccuWeather *Wunderground *Your iPhone …etc…

  6. Types of Forecasts *Nowcasting (Up to six hours) *Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days) *Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal *Climate (IPCC)

  7. *Nowcasting (Up to six hours) *Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days) *Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal *Climate (IPCC) Types of Forecasts

  8. When will the thunderstorm hit? When will the snow taper? When will the rain change to snow/sleet/freezing rain? Nowcasting

  9. Radar Satellite Soundings Nowcasting Tools

  10. Surface (airport) observations Nowcasting Tools

  11. *Nowcasting (Up to six hours) *Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days) *Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal *Climate (IPCC) Types of Forecasts

  12. Computer models needed! Models use: -Current surface observations -Upper air observations -Previous forecast …and then… Short/Medium Range Forecasting

  13. From MetEd / UCAR Short/Medium Range Forecasting

  14. GFS - 16 days, global, U.S.A. NAM - 84 hours, N. America, U.S.A. HRRR/Rapid Refresh, 18 hours, U.S.A. ECMWF - 10 days, global, U.K. UKMET - global, U.K. NOGAPS - global, U.S.A. (Navy) JMA - Japan CMC - Canada WRF - Multiple domains, also run locally at Albany! Models

  15. *Nowcasting (Up to six hours) *Short/medium range (Up to 7-10 days) *Long range/intraseasonal/seasonal *Climate (IPCC) Types of Forecasts

  16. Various global “signals” that help meteorologists forecast on longer time scales. -ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) Long Range/Intraseasonal/Seasonal

  17. Also… -Lots of other complex atmospheric waves in the tropics… Long Range/Intraseasonal/Seasonal From Dr. Paul Roundy, UAlbany

  18. Hurricane Sandy, October 2012

  19. National Hurricane Center Forecast for Hurricane Sandy 5 PM EDT October 24, 2012

  20. Evening of October 25, 2012

  21. Other forecast challenges: Precipitation type! Forecast temperature profile for March 19, 2013 winter storm

  22. Other forecast challenges: Precipitation type! ACTUAL temperature profile for March 19, 2013 winter storm... Close call for a heavy sleet storm!

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