Skills and Technology 2010 A Global Overview

1. Skills and Technology 2010A Global Overview by Professor Ron Johnston EE-OZ Annual Conference 2005 ‘Skills and Technology 2010’ 8 November 2005 Brisbane

2. What of 2010? “Most things change slowly, some things change rapidly; the only problem is we don’t know which is which” (Bill Gates)

3. But in 2010 • World population will have grown by ⅓ billion • China’s economy will rival that of the US • The sea level will rise by 2 inches • Energy consumption in Australia will have risen by 10-15% • Voice-based computers will be widespread, probably in your mobile phone • Computing systems will actively learn • Stem-cell based treatment and repair will be available • Terrorism will still be with us

4. One Certainty“the long-term trend towards a knowledge-based economy continues, driven by the growing globalisation of knowledge”(OECD STI Scoreboard 2005)

5. Some Evidence • Investment in knowledge (R&D, education and software) is 9% of GDP in OECD countries, compared with 7% for machinery and equipment • Professional and technical workers are over 35% of employment in Australia • The number of patents doubled in the past decade, to 450,000 pa • The ICT sector is 10% of business value added • China is the ⅓ largest R&D performer

6. Growth in Investment in Knowledge Generation • OECD – growing at 5% per year • New Asian Players • China 25% of US • Korea 8% of US • Taiwan 3% of US • Sum of scientific knowledge doubled in past 8 years! • ‘Talent Wars’

7. In a knowledge economy the production, distribution and use of knowledge is the main driver of growth, wealth creation and employment across all industries.

8. Because knowledge does not wear out it is a source of super-value and super-productivity. • Knowledge alone can add value to an otherwise closed, zero-sum system.

9. Changing Knowledge Work “There is a shift from applying knowledge in a relatively stable environment to using and creating knowledge to comprehend and transform a rapidly changing environment”

10. Which requires individuals with... Knowledge work is... And organisations that... • develop knowledge worker novices into experts • rapidly build effective virtual teams • build a culture of improvisation • balance creativity with risk management • High pattern recognition skills • flexibility and tolerance for ambiguity • Teams • skilled at collective “sense making” • Complex • Uncertain • Ambiguous • Unstructured • Difficult to observe and measure • High risk

11. The Challenge of Skill Formation “Australia’s productivity gains over the past two decades are well known. Less well recognised till now is the price that we have paid as a result of reduced funding of skills formation…the next wave of productivity gains will need to be founded on a new skills formation strategy (Bridging the Skills Divide, Senate Inquiry, 2003)

12. ? ? ? ? ? Some Major Uncertainties ? ? ? ?

13. The China Phenomenon • Current GDP US$7.3 tn, cf USA 11.8, EU 11.7 • Slowing growth rate! – from 9.5% 1978-2004 to 8% 2006-10 to 7.2% 2011-20 • Just 5.7% growth rate doubles the economy in 10 years • Current account surplus US$100 bn • Trade surplus US$50bn • 40 GW energy capacity being built each year = Australia’s total energy capacity

14. New Decision-Making/Management Tools • smart search engines • driven by voice recognition • micro-display • specialised DNA computing • intelligent agents • automated intelligence • knowledge management

15. Global Warming & Environmental Sustainability Beware the Sixth Extinction!