Arkansas’ K-12 Achievement & NSLA Funding

Arkansas’ K-12 Achievement & NSLA Funding September 4, 2013 AAEA

AR Education Reports • Policy Briefs • Report Cards • Newsletters • Data Resources OEP is a research center within the College of Education and Health Professions at the University of Arkansas that specializes in Education Research and Policy. Officeforeducationpolicy.org

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OEP Outreach • We at the OEP believe that teacher qualityis important and that all Arkansas classrooms should be lead by a qualified teacher. • The Arkansas Teacher Corps (ATC) program is a collaborative partnership between the University of Arkansas, school districts, and local community organizations that aims to provide an accelerated path to teaching for the highest-performing and most talented individuals to have a lasting impact on students and communities in Arkansas. arkansasteachercorps.org

Outline • Overall Achievement: Are we 5th or 49th? • Benchmark • NAEP • The NSLA Funding Question • Has NSLA funding produced gains for FRL students? • How have districts spent NSLA funding? 3. Our Recommendations for NSLA Funding

Overall AR Achievement:How was Arkansas’ performance on the Benchmark and End-of-Course Exams in 2012-13? Over time?

Benchmark Performance • Growth over time, until slight decrease in 2012-13 in literacy and math • Slight decrease can be attributed to many factors, including ceiling effects and CCSS “implementation dip” • Grade-level trends: lower grades perform at higher levels than upper grades Benchmark, Grade 3 – 8, % Proficient/Advanced, Over time

Benchmark Performance, By Region Math Benchmark, Grades 3-8 Literacy Benchmark, Grades 3-8 • Higher-performing regions: Northwest and Northeast

EOC Performance • In 2012-13, slight decreases in Algebra & Geometry scores • Steady increases in Grade 11 Literacy and Biology scores over time

How was Arkansas’ performance on the NAEP in 2011? Over time?

NAEP • National Assessment of Education Progress – Nation’s Report Card • Administered to random sample of 4th and 8th grade students • Most recent data from 2011 • New 2013 NAEP data to be released this fall

NAEP Math, 2011 Grade 4 • Grade 4 in math: Slightly below national average

NAEP Math, 2011 Grade 8 • Grade 8 in math: Below national average

NAEP Reading, 2011 Grade 4 • Grade 4 in reading: Below national average

NAEP Reading, 2011 Grade 8 • Grade 8 in reading: Below national average

NAEP Performance, 2011

NAEP Performance, Over time Math,Grade 4 Math, Grade 8 • In math, in grades 4 and 8, Arkansas’s students have decreased the gapbetween Arkansas and the nation on the NAEP. • However, Arkansas still performs less wellthan the nation in math and grades 4 and 8 on the NAEP. (Closer in Grade 4)

NAEP Performance, Over time Reading, Grade 4 Reading, Grade 8 • In literacy, in grades 4 and 8, Arkansas’s students have decreased the gap between Arkansas and the nation on the NAEP. • However, Arkansas still performs less wellthan the nation in literacy and grades 4 and 8 on the NAEP. (Closer in Grade 4)

5th or 49th? • Two stories are out there today: • AR is backwards … “Thank goodness for Mississippi” … falling way behind in school quality • AR is rapidly climbing … 6th in national rankings on the 2012 Quality Counts report and now 5th in 2013!! AR has better schools than in Connecticut, Florida, and Texas. • Let’s look at comparable data to do a fair comparison of AR scores to US totals.

NAEP Math, 2011 “Apples to Apples” Comparisons – Positive Results for AR • In Grade 4, Arkansas’ FRL students were slightly aheadof the nation’s average. • In Grade 8, Arkansas’ FRL students were slightly belowthe nation’s average.

NAEP Reading, 2011 “Apples to Apples” Comparisons – Positive Results for AR • In Grade 4, Arkansas’ FRL students were slightly aheadof the nation’s average. • In Grade 8, Arkansas’ FRL students were on par with the nation’s average.

NAEP v. Region, 2011 Math and Reading, Grade 4: Comparison to Region/US by Income • Arkansas compares well to surrounding states and to the nation when scores are compared by poverty level. • Our state suffers in the overall category because more of our students are in the low income group than in other states.

Careful with these results… • When comparing performance of FRL students across states, it is important to keep in mind cost of living. • Income level of for a family of four at ~$30,000 (free lunch threshold) looks different in Little Rock than in Los Angeles • Therefore, FRL is an imperfect measure when examining poverty levels and comparing data across states. • This might generate a positive BIAS for AR • E.G. LR FRL = $30K ~= $22K in Seattle; thus comparing a “wealthier” set of AR kids to WA kids.

NAEP: Ranking States by Achievement • Above is Arkansas’ rank when comparing simple NAEP scores and a ranking for when each state’s demographics are taken into consideration (Difference Score Rank) • Although Arkansas’ scores are lower than other states, the state as a whole does well when our demographics are taken into consideration.

OEP Similar Schools Database • Allows for comparisons to districts with similar or the same SES characteristics, including % FRL, % household bachelor degrees, median income, and district enrollment growth. Find on our website (Officeforeducationpolicy.org), under Arkansas Schools Data

Back to the Question at Hand … What do we think we know so far? AR students have been improving: Benchmark and EOC growth over time(until 2012-13) But test scores generally increase with time due to test familiarity...so it’s important to compare AR to the US Slight NAEP overall growth over time Slight decrease in AR/US gap in 4th grade math/reading Relates to question: Has NSLA funding for FRL students helped?

The NSLA Question • How does NSLA funding work? • How do we know if it works? - If it were working, what changes might we expect to see? • So, what did we find about possible effectiveness? • Given the uncertainty, could we have expected great gains? (How were funds used?) • After all this, what would we suggest?

NSLA: How does it work? • In the 2013 Quality Counts report, Arkansas received a B+ on equity funding, ranking it as one of the top states in the nation in distributing equity funding to districts. • Arkansas should be commended for its focus on students in poverty, as the formula does channel more resources toward students in poverty, particularly those in very poor districts.

NSLA: How does it work? Math (GPA Measure), Districts By % FRL Literacy (GPA Measure), Districts By % FRL • We know that districts with 70% or more FRL students see a drop in achievement. • NSLA funding seeks to allocate more funding to those districts.

NSLA Funding: How does it work? The tiered system creates two “cliffs.” • “Cliffs” cause districts with very similar demographics to be treated differently in the funding system. • For example, a district with 69% FRL receives less funding per FRL pupil than a district with 70% FRL; however, student bodies with 69% and 70% FRL look relatively similar.

The Big Q – How would we know if NSLA funding worked? • We might observe … • Hypothesis 1: Increased scores for FRL students (relative to non-FRL students) … this may be the most important! • Hypothesis 2: Districts just above the “cliffs” performing better relative to those just below the “cliffs.” • Hypothesis 3: Districts with influxes in NSLA funds performing better than in past.

Hypothesis 1:FRL Students vs Non-FRL Students • If NSLA Funding were working, we might expect to see increase in achievement for FRL students relative to non-FRL students.

Benchmark Achievement Math, 2005-06 to 2011-12 In math, the gap between FRL and non-FRL students has widened over time. Literacy, 2005-06 to 2011-12 In literacy, FRL students have slightly closed the gap; but FRL students still perform less well.

NAEP Growth, 2003 to 2011 Math and Reading Score Gains, 2003 to 2011 • Over the past decade, Arkansas scores have grown by leaps and bounds, but that statistic is padded by lower baseline scores. • The greatest gains come in math and for higher-income students.

Hypothesis 1:FRL Students vs Non-FRL Students • Achievement gap between FRL and non-FRL students continues to exist. • Benchmark • Gap is widening in math performance • Gap is slightly shrinking in literacy • NAEP • Non-FRL produced higher gains than FRL students over time

Hypothesis 2:“Cliff” Districts • “Cliffs” cause districts with very similar demographics to be treated differently in the funding system. • For example, a district with 69% FRL receives less funding per FRL pupil than a district with 70% FRL; however, student bodies with 69% and 70% FRL look relatively similar. • The “cliffs” allow us to compare the performance of relatively similar districts (e.g. 69% to 70%) that receive different amounts of funding. • Thus, if NSLA were working, we would see greater performance for districts “above the cliffs”

Hypothesis 2:“Cliff” Districts Achievement Comparisons at the 70% “Cliff”* Benchmark Literacy GPA, 2007-08 to 2012-13 Benchmark Math GPA, 2007-08 to 2012-13 • On the math and literacy benchmark exams, the districts just above and below the cliff (thus, districts who are socio-economically “equal”) perform nearly identically.

Hypothesis 2:“Cliff” Districts Achievement Comparisons at the 90% “Cliff”* Benchmark Math GPA, 2007-08 to 2012-13 Benchmark Literacy GPA, 2007-08 to 2012-13 • On the math and literacy benchmark exams, districts just below the 90% cliff outperformed the districts above the cliff.

Hypothesis 3:Increased Funding • When a district “moves up a tier” by having a higher % of FRL students, FRL students may perform at higher levels after the district has received more funding. • Thus, if NSLA were working, we would see greater performance for districts after the new funds • Since 2004-05, some districts have moved into a higher tier of poverty funding. The achievement of these districts was compared and at both the 70% and 90% cliffs, no district showed an increase in achievement as a result of a financial windfall.

So, what do we know about NSLA? • It is important to note that we do not have the counterfactual to examine how districts would perform without poverty funding. Nevertheless, we do know that: • Most agree that additional resources should be provided to schools with higher concentrations of poverty (to help students overcome additional challenges associated poverty). • No research indicates exact $$ amount needed to create equal opportunities for poor students. • From data presented thus far, no justification for funding “cliffs” (theoretical or empirical). • So, how do districts use NSLA funding?

So, how do districts use NSLA funding? Shaded box denotes a coded use originally set in 2003.

How do districts use NSLA funding? • The majority of districts distribute funding among 8 or more expenditure codes. • Districts seldom focus the money in one or two specific areas; therefore, it seems if many districts use the funding to plug gaps in budgets. • It is unclear as to whether all districts are specifically pinpointing the funding towards students in poverty (or schools serving these students). • For example, a district may spend a large portion of funding on Highly Qualified teachers or Specialists – these teachers may or may not work specifically with the low-income students. • Furthermore, districts do not use all the funding – many have balances at the end of the year.

How do districts use NSLA funding? • Given the uncertainty, could we have expected great gains? • Funds have spent across the board by most districts • No clear evidence that funding has been focused for students in poverty • Money is allocated to district offices and not even to schools with high levels of poverty

What do we recommend? Two main discussions this year: • Distribution of funds • “Smooth sliding” scale to replace the current tiered system • Distribute more funding for districts with higher concentrations of FRL students • Weighting the funding to differentiate between poverty levels by factoring in the difference between “free” and “reduced” lunch students • Leftover balances by districts • Use of funding: more or less prescriptive?

Example of a Smooth Distribution Problem: Several “affluent” districts would lose $$ • “Smooth” sliding scale • Weighted to account for differences in “free” and “reduced” • Weights are 75% for Reduced-Lunch Students and 100% for Free-Lunch Students.

Smoother … but prescriptive? Should the use of NSLA funding be more prescriptive? Long debate over extent of “mandating the spending matrix” • Arguments for prescriptive use: • Current lack of focus of funds • Pinpoint only to students in poverty • Use prescriptive manner as a way to figure out what works • Arguments against prescriptive use: • Flexibility is necessary: State-wide policies may not fit for all. • What do you prescribe? Research isn’t conclusive on what works best

Concluding Thoughts • Arkansas scores on the Benchmark and EOC have improved in the past 10 years, but… much of the NAEP increases occurred before 2003 (slides 18 and 19) • On the NAEP, Arkansas students have only slightly increased scores in 4th grade and 8th grade • FRL and non-FRL students have produced gains; but non-FRL students have experienced greater gains • It is difficult to determine the effectiveness of NSLA funding over the past 10 years. • The gap between FRL and non-FRL students has not shrunk. • Policymakers and districts need to continue to strategically think about how NSLA funding can be pinpointed so that students in poverty can achieve at higher levels.

Comments? Questions? Thank you for your time and input!

Arkansas’ K-12 Achievement & NSLA Funding