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October 14 th – October 16 th 2007 UCLA Extension Public Policy Program

Planning for Growth: Demographics, Employment, Housing, and Resources The Transportation – Land Use – Environment Connection. October 14 th – October 16 th 2007 UCLA Extension Public Policy Program. Planning for Growth: Symposium Overview. Brian D. Taylor

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October 14 th – October 16 th 2007 UCLA Extension Public Policy Program

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  1. Planning for Growth:Demographics, Employment,Housing, and ResourcesThe Transportation – Land Use – Environment Connection October 14th – October 16th 2007 UCLA Extension Public Policy Program

  2. Planning for Growth:Symposium Overview Brian D. Taylor UCLA Institute of Transportation Studies Symposium Co-Chair

  3. The Transportation – Land Use – Environment Connection Symposium • 17 years dedicated to linking three critical areas of public policy and planning • Transportation • Land use • Environment

  4. The Transportation – Land Use – Environment Connection Symposium • 17 years dedicated to linking three critical areas of public policy and planning • Transportation • Land use • Environment • Always interrelated, but all too often not well integrated

  5. The Transportation – Land Use – Environment Connection Symposium • 17 years dedicated to linking three critical areas of public policy and planning • Always interrelated, but all too often not well integrated • This year we examine four additional, critical topics

  6. The Transportation – Land Use – Environment Connection Symposium • 17 years dedicated to linking three critical areas of public policy and planning • Always interrelated, but all too often not well integrated • This year we examine four additional, critical topics • Demographics, employment, housing, and resources

  7. A challenging agenda • Covering so many topical areas and their interrelationships allows for a more holistic exploration of growth and the quality of life

  8. A challenging agenda • Covering so many topical areas and their interrelationships allows for a more holistic exploration of growth and the quality of life • But at the price of covering each of these important topics in less depth than they otherwise deserve

  9. A challenging agenda • Many of us have attended entire conferences devoted to aspects of economic development, housing, resource management, or demographics

  10. A challenging agenda • Many of us have attended entire conferences devoted to aspects of economic development, housing, resource management, or demographics • Not to mention environmental issues, land use, or transportation

  11. A challenging agenda • Many of us have attended entire conferences devoted to aspects of economic development, housing, resource management, or demographics • Not to mention environmental issues, land use, or transportation • But the signature of the Arrowhead series is our focus on the linkages among these substantive areas of policy

  12. LinkagesThe Arrowhead Signature • Linkages among… • Research and practice

  13. LinkagesThe Arrowhead Signature • Linkages among… • Research and practice • Ideas and action

  14. LinkagesThe Arrowhead Signature • Linkages among… • Research and practice • Ideas and action • Public and private sectors

  15. LinkagesThe Arrowhead Signature • Linkages among… • Research and practice • Ideas and action • Public and private sectors • Markets and regulation

  16. LinkagesThe Arrowhead Signature • Linkages among… • Research and practice • Ideas and action • Public and private sectors • Markets and regulation • Local and global

  17. LinkagesThe Arrowhead Signature • Linkages among… • Research and practice • Ideas and action • Public and private sectors • Markets and regulation • Local and global • Development and conservation

  18. LinkagesThe Arrowhead Signature • Linkages among… • Research and practice • Ideas and action • Public and private sectors • Markets and regulation • Local and global • Development and conservation • Transportation, land use, and environment

  19. Our Game Plan:This session • Global economic changes, local effects • The future of local employment, trade, and travel in an increasingly global economy • Roger Stough, George Mason University • Panel Discussion • Gloria Jeff, Transportation Professional • Randall Lewis, Lewis Operating Corporation • Scott Moore, Union Pacific Railroad

  20. Our Game planThis Afternoon • Exploring the land use and transportation implications of population growth and change in California and the West • Understanding population growth amidst environmental constraints: Who will be the new residents, and where will they live and work? • Dowell Meyers, USC • Planning for the travel needs of growing youth and aging population • Noreen McDonald, University of Virginia • Immigrants, location, and travel in California: Do the biggest impacts lie ahead? • Evelyn Blumenberg, UCLA

  21. Our Game planThis Evening • Visioning Alternative Growth Futures: What (may) Lay Ahead? • How much land? How much housing? Forecasting the impacts of alternative futures of urban growth in U.S. • John Landis, University of Pennsylvania • Visioning alternative futures in the Sacramento region • Mike McKeever, SACOG

  22. Our Game planTomorrow Morning • Thirst for Growth: Water Politics and Policy • Panel Discussion on Watering the West: The future of water supply in growing, drought-prone regions – implications for transportation, land use, and the environment • John Wise, formerly of the US EPA • Tim Quinn, Association of California Water Agencies • Spreck Rosekrans, Environmental Defense

  23. Our Game planTomorrow, Late Morning • Powering Growth: Environmental constraints on electrical power production in the years ahead • On the grid: Planning future power generation to accommodate growth • Frank Wolak, Stanford University • Green growth, green policy I: Innovative efforts to develop sustainable energy production around the globe • Honorable Debbie Cook, City of Huntington Beach • Green growth, green policy II: Local efforts to increase energy efficiency and conservation in the West • Walker Wells, Global Green

  24. Our Game planTomorrow Afternoon • Housing Markets in California and the West: Supply, Demand, and Prices • The markets for housing and trends in housing production: What’s ahead? • Steve Cauley, UCLA • The role of regulation in affecting housing supply and prices: Part of the solution, or part of the problem, or both? • Marlon Boarnet, UC Irvine • School quality and housing choices: What are the links? • Ariel Bierbaum, UC Berkeley • What is and can be done to make housing more affordable to more people? • Victoria Basolo, UC Irvine

  25. Our Game planTomorrow Evening • Planning for Affordable, Sustainable, Housing • Intergovernmental Planning for Housing • Linda Wheaton, California Department of Housing & Community Development • Green building techniques and codes: What are the trends, what have been the effects? • Brian Gitt, Build It Green • The future of housing in California: A Developer’s Perspective • Andrew Henderson, BIA of Southern California

  26. Our Game planTuesday Morning • Planning for (and coping with) Growth • The future of high-tech employment in an increasingly expensive and congested Silicon Valley • Carl Guardino, Silicon Valley Leadership Group • Planning for logistics-based employment growth in the Inland Empire • John Husing, Economics & Politics • Preparing for an increasingly urbanized San Joaquin Valley • Barbara Patrick, Great Valley Center

  27. Our Game planClosing Session • Strategies for Moving Forward: What should be done? Can it be done? If so, how and by whom? • Honorable Christopher Cabaldon, West Sacramento • Hasan Ikhrata, Southern California Association of Governments • Joan Sollenberger, California Department of Transportation

  28. Some opening thoughts • Putting growth in California and the west in context

  29. Some opening thoughts • Putting growth in California and the west in context Rush hour – Lagos, Nigeria

  30. Historical and Projected PopulationCalifornia, 1950-2050 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, CA Dept. of Finance

  31. Population Growth Rate by DecadeCalifornia, 1950-2050 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, CA Dept. of Finance

  32. Indexed Trends in Population and Vehicle Miles Traveled in California, 1950-2020 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, CA Dept. of Finance, U.S. DOT, Caltrans

  33. Annual Population Growth RatesCalifornia and the World, 2005-2010 Sources: United Nations Population Fund, CA Dept. of Finance

  34. Share of Population Living in Urbanized AreasCalifornia and the World, 2007 Sources: United Nations Population Fund, USDA

  35. Share of Population Living in Urbanized Areas California and Similarly-Sized Nations, 2007 Sources: United Nations Population Fund, USDA

  36. Annual Population Growth Rates, California and Similarly-Sized Nations, 2007 Sources: CIA World Factbook, CA Dept. of Finance

  37. Population Density and GDP per capita,California and Similarly-Sized Nations, 2007 Sources: CIA World Factbook,U.S. Census Bureau, CA Dept. of Finance

  38. The Planning forGrowth Conundrum

  39. The Planning forGrowth Conundrum First Premise: Population, employment, and travel are expected to increase dramatically in the coming years

  40. The Planning forGrowth Conundrum First Premise: Population, employment, and travel are expected to increase dramatically in the coming years — which threaten the quality of life in our state

  41. The Planning forGrowth Conundrum First Premise: Population, employment, and travel are expected to increase dramatically in the coming years —which threaten the quality of life in our state. Second Premise: If we do not prepare for this growth with infrastructure investments and environmental mitigation, we will chase away new jobs and residents, and the growth will not occur

  42. The Planning forGrowth Conundrum First Premise: Population, employment, and travel are expected to increase dramatically in the coming years —which threaten the quality of life in our state. Second Premise: If we do not prepare for this growth with infrastructure investments and environmental mitigation, we will chase away new jobs and residents, and the growth will not occur —which would threaten the quality of life in our state

  43. Growth:Can’t live with it, can’t live without it • Former New York Yankee star Yogi Berra on why he no longer patronized a popular Manhattan nightclub:

  44. Growth:Can’t live with it, can’t live without it • Former New York Yankee star Yogi Berra on why he no longer patronized a popular Manhattan nightclub: “The place is too crowded, nobody goes there anymore.”

  45. The Planning forGrowth Conundrum Proposition: Circular, ambivalent, and contradictory attitudes towards growth among voters and the officials they elect…

  46. The Planning forGrowth Conundrum Proposition: Circular, ambivalent, and contradictory attitudes towards growth among voters and the officials they elect… help to explain the circular, ambivalent, and contradictory policies promulgated to manage growth

  47. Cars, density, and values:three policy paths... Policy Path 1: Return to the Streetcar City • Focus new development into transit corridors and around major stops/stations

  48. Cars, density, and values:three policy paths... Policy Path 1: Return to the Streetcar City • Focus new development into corridors and around major stops/stations • Encourage development of major commercial nodes

  49. Cars, density, and values:three policy paths... Policy Path 1: Return to the Streetcar City • Focus new development into corridors and around major stops/stations • Encourage development of major commercial nodes • Limit, or at least densify, growth in suburbs, and especially on fringe

  50. Cars, density, and values:three policy paths... Policy Path 1: Return to the Streetcar City • Focus new development into corridors and around major stops/stations • Encourage development of major commercial nodes • Limit, or at least densify, growth in suburbs, and especially on fringe • Limit parking and increase taxes that raise the cost of auto use

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