From Aquino to Obama: Presidential Time in the Philippines and the U.S.

From Aquino to Obama: Presidential Time in the Philippines and the U.S. Mark Thompson, Southeast Asian Research Centre (SEARC) and Department of Asian & International Studies, City University of Hong Kong Presentation to APISA 5 Regional Integration in Europe and Asia in the 21st Century 24-25 November 2011 Overseas Chinese University Taichung, Taiwan

Does anybody know what time it is? • Stephen Skowronek’s presidential “time” • Timing of presidency • Relationship to predecessors • Recurrent cycles • More structuralist • Upends Neutstadt’s personal model • Ideology, interests, institutional arrangements • Position within ‘regime’ key

You can’t compare!! • The “1st” to “3rdWorld” – a sacrilege! • Imperial power to a post-colonial society - absurd! • Spanish King with a German Hanoverian - nein! • Apples and mangos - a no go! • (Well, at least the same national bird)

But what if we did it anyway? • “Test” patterns of presidentialism • in varied contexts • strength and relevance of institutional variable • Turns largest area specialist literature • into generalizable social science • Philippine colonialism and presidential model

Presidential regimes • Formal institutions • Also social bases (e.g. party alignments) • Regime building • Reconstructionist • Orthodox innovation (or exhaustion) • (Dis)articulation • Opposition • Preemption

What time is it for Aquino? • Mother’s son • Takes up reformist narrative • Arroyo’s failed presidency as foil • Corrupt contrast • Performance not stellar • But narrative solid

Aquino as “articulator” • Revives reformist “narrative” • After Arroyo’s “apostasy” • A good dynast • As opposed to Arroyo’s cynical dynasticism • Key is belief in his sincerity • But how long will that serve him • Regime renewal or exhaustion?

Aquino and Ramos • Ramos considered best post-Marcos president • Implements reforms after instability • Aquino brings stability too • After illegitimacy of Arroyo • Ramos “success” doesn’t help poor • Estrada his populist successor • If reformism fails • populism as alternative regime?

And Obama? • Long unclear if was a “reconstructionist” • Or preemptive president • Narrative ambiguous • “change we can believe in” • Attempt to found a new regime? • Or create bi-partistanship? • Preemptive turn • Welfarism forgotten

“Mongrel” politics • Obama can’t accept prevailing regime • But opposing it too much risks implosion • As massive mid-term losses suggest • Now moving to political center • While portraying Republicans as extremist • Tea Party an effort to revive Reaganism • But extremism makes preemption easier • Key to Obama’s re-election

Obama and Clinton • Both ran “negative campaigns” • Against failing of Bush administrations • no clear positive alternative • Both overestimated their mandate • Backlash against “socialist” health care • Republican victories reaffirming the “faith” • But Republicans overplayed hand before • Also against Obama? • Or will Republican regime be revived?

Ideology • Foundational ideology • Anti-statism in U.S. • Reformism in Philippines • Preemptive strategies • Smart government (Clinton) • Populism (Estrada, FPJ) • End of regime possible • Radicalization of Republicans • Corruption of reformers

Interests • Neo-liberalism in U.S. • Big business/Wall street • Religious right • “Tea party” unites them • Reformism in the Philippines • Makati Business Club • Catholic Church • Middle Class activists unite them

Institutional arrangements • Changes in U.S. system in new “regime” • Conservative supermajority in Congress • Conservative dominance in Supreme Court • Increasing polarization of political parties • Media politicized • And post-Marcos Philippines • Multi-party system • House shifts, Senate independence • Judicial check • Strong military influence

Performance v. Narrative • Obama • Strong record • Competent cabinet • Weak narrative • Uncertain re-election • Aquino • Weak performance • Administration infighting • Strong narrative

Same, same or different? • US regimes since Jefferson • Pre-Marcos, Marcos, post-Marcos • Aquino revives reformism • Obama pre-empts Reaganism • Estrada’s fall through coup • Nixon’s institutionalized • Philippine parties more fluid • US parties increasingly ideological • Behind “clientelism” are narratives

El demonio de lascomparaciones • Rizal sees ‘spectre of comparison’ • Despite socio-economic gap • And US Philippines cultural differences • Presidentialism ‘bedeviled’ by similar logic • Presidency structured • Limits presidents’ choices • to articulation of/antagonism towards • regime narrative • ‘Performance’ as ‘role playing’

Thanks/Salamat And I was walking down the street one dayA pretty lady looked at me and said her diamond watch had stopped cold deadAnd I saidDoes anybody really know what time it isDoes anybody really careIf so I can't imagine whyabout timeWe've all got time enough to cryOh no, no, no, no, no, no nooooooooo

From Aquino to Obama: Presidential Time in the Philippines and the U.S.