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Power Politics: Russia and its “Near Abroad”

Power Politics: Russia and its “Near Abroad” Dr. Theresa Sabonis-Helf National War College. February 2009. Regional primary energy consumption patterns 2007. coal. hydro. nuclear. gas. oil.

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Power Politics: Russia and its “Near Abroad”

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  1. Power Politics: Russia and its “Near Abroad” Dr. Theresa Sabonis-Helf National War College February 2009

  2. Regional primary energy consumption patterns 2007 coal hydro nuclear gas oil From BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008

  3. Iraq: 2.0 Kuwait 2.7 Norway: 2.8 Russia: 9.7 UK: 1.7 Kazakhstan: 1.4 Libya: 1.8 China: 3.8 Algeria: 2.2 Iran: 4.1 Saudi Arabia: 10.7 UAE: 2.9 Indonesia: 1.0 Nigeria: 2.4 Qatar: 1.1 Angola: 1.8 2007 Oil Producers (mil bbl/day) Blue designates members of OPEC Green designates oil producer (non-OPEC) Base map: www.petroleumgraphics.com; Million Bbl/Day data from US Dept. of Energy EIA 2008

  4. Canada: 3.3 United States: 8.3 Venezuela: 2.8 Mexico: 3.7 Ecuador: 0.5 Brazil: 2.2 2007 Oil Producers Blue designates members of OPEC Green designates oil producer (non-OPEC) Base map: www.petroleumgraphics.com; Million Bbl/Day data from US Dept. of Energy EIA 2008

  5. World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1, 2005(billion barrels) World Total = 1,278 Billion Barrels Oil & Gas Journal, "Worldwide Look at Reserves and Production,“ Vol. 102, No. 47 (December 20, 2004).

  6. Swing Capacity

  7. Oil Chokepoints (Millions of Barrels per Day) Bab el-Mandab 3.0 Bosporus/Turkish Straits 3.1 Strait of Hormuz: 17 Strait of Malacca 11.7Russia 2.0Suez Canal/Sumed: 4.2Panama Canal: 0.6 1 4 2 5 3 6 7 5 2 6 3 1 7 4 Data from US Dept of Energy EIA 2005 (2004 estimates)

  8. Oil in the Region: 1000 Barrels/Day Data from EIA 2008

  9. Canada’s Oil Domestic Impacts of Oil Wealth ● Boom and bust economic cycles ● Dutch Disease ● No taxation, no representation syndrome ● Economic and political development of petrostates has had limited success ● High levels of corruption are endemic ● State incurs obligations that are hard to rescind

  10. Thomas Friedman’s First Law of Petropolitics From Foreign Policy May/June 2006

  11. Oil & Gas Revenues

  12. Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) 700,000 B/Day (2001) Existing Soviet Oil Pipelines “Chechen Loop” Baku-Supsa Oil Pipeline 145,000 B/day (1999) Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline (BTC) 1,000,000 B/Day (2006) Iran “Swap” 80,000 B/Day Kazakhstan- China Pipelline 200,000 B/Day (2006) Map by Gavin Helf

  13. Where are the Hydrocarbons? Proven Oil Reserves 2007 Proven Nat. Gas Reserves 2007 From BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008

  14. European Reliance on Russian Natural Gas (2006-2007) Data from EIA Russia Country Report 2008

  15. Russian Oil and Gas Pipelines to Europe: Actual & Proposed Data from US Dept of Energy EIA 2008

  16. Russian Gas Sales Prices 2008($ per thousand cubic meters) Data from EIA Russia Country Report May 2008

  17. Russian Nord Stream Natural Gas PipelineFacts Route: Portovaya Bay, Russia to coast Germany (underwater) – Baltic Sea Capacity: 27.5 billion cubic meters (2010); 55 bcm (2012 – 2nd pipeline) Length: 1,200 km (World’s largest underwater natural gas pipeline – max depth: 210 meters) Cost Estimate: 5 Billion Euros (60% Increase – 8 Billion Euros) – Cost 2.2 Billion Euros if built on land Supply: Shtokman gas field (estimated reserves of 3.7 trillion cubic meters – 2010 available) Shareholders: Gazprom (51%), BASF (24.5%), E.ON (24.5%) Contracts: Wingas – German Gas Co. – 9 bcm for 25 yrs DONG – Danish Co. – 1 bcm for 20 yrs E.ON – German Co. – 4 bcm Gaz de France – 2.5 bcm Slide courtesy of Nelson Dodd, NWC Elective 5404

  18. RAO-UES Electricity Grid (Western View) Map from RAO-UES Annual Report 2003

  19. RAO-UES Interest/ Involvement * partial parallel

  20. Foreign Presence in Energy Sectors

  21. Nuclear Energy

  22. 1 - Rovno Complex 2- Khmelnitskiy Complex 3 - Zaporozhye Complex 4 - South Ukraine Complex 5 - Kola Complex 6 - Kalinin Complex 7 - Novovoronezh Complex 8 - Balakovo Complex 9 - Armenia Reactor All Reactors Latvia Estonia Lithuania Belarus Ukraine Russia Moldova 9 Kazakhstan Georgia Active VVER Reactors Active Breeder Reactor Armenia MothballedBreeder Reactor Azerbaijan Active RBMK Reactors Kyrgyzstan Mothballed RBMK Reactors Turkmenistan Tajikistan Uzbekistan

  23. Questions?

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