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John Rawlins, jrawlins@whatcom.ctc

John Rawlins, jrawlins@whatcom.ctc.edu List of energy references (online, books) http://faculty.whatcom.ctc.edu/jrawlins/phys109/artlist.htm Daily world news – energy, climate change, sustainability http://www.energybulletin.net/news.php Blog on Peak Oil by experts http://www.theoildrum.com

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John Rawlins, jrawlins@whatcom.ctc

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  1. John Rawlins, jrawlins@whatcom.ctc.edu • List of energy references (online, books)http://faculty.whatcom.ctc.edu/jrawlins/phys109/artlist.htm • Daily world news – energy, climate change, sustainabilityhttp://www.energybulletin.net/news.php • Blog on Peak Oil by expertshttp://www.theoildrum.com • Blog on Climate Change by expertshttp://realclimate.org/ • My articles in Whatcom Watch, Sep. 2006 – Aug. 2007http://www.whatcomwatch.org/php/WW_open.php • What will we eat as the oil runs out?http://www.energybulletin.net/38091.html

  2. FIRST, SOME LAME PHILOSOPHY • "To punish me for my contempt for authority, fate made me an authority myself."--Albert Einstein, physicist. • “Understanding and reporting the facts has made me a reporter and wannabe sustainable farmer, not an authority.”--John Rawlins, (retired) physicist.

  3. THE ELEPHANTS IN OUR LIVING ROOMS TWO SIDES OF ONE COIN: THE FUTURE OF FOSSIL FUELS (and humans)

  4. ELEPHANT NUMERO UNO:PEAK OIL

  5. LIFESTYLE DEPENDS ON ENERGY AND 85% OF WORLD ENERGY COMES FROM FOSSIL FUELS

  6. A CORRELATION THAT BODES ILL(find the yellow curve – that’s us) 1980 1940 population 1900 1860

  7. A CENTURY OF GROWTH IN THE U.S. BASED ON FOSSIL FUELS Iranian revolution 37% Arab-Israeli war U.S. Oil Peak 23% EA. 8% 3% EA.

  8. Petroleum Products from One Barrel of Crude Oil in California 42 gallons + few refinery gain http://www.energy.ca.gov/gasoline/whats_in_barrel_oil.html

  9. NO WAY TO MANAGE THE BANK ACCOUNT: WITHDRAWALS / DEPOSITS ~ 3:1 & RISING

  10. 30 COUNTRIES PRODUCING HALF OF WORLD TOTAL ARE NOW IN DECLINE; ADD SAUDI ARABIA?WITHIN 2 YEARS: RUSSIA PNW http://www.energywatchgroup.de/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oil_Exec_Summary_10-2007.pdf

  11. WORLD CONVENTIONAL OIL SUPPLY NOW IN DECLINE, ~ 1%/YEAR, APPROACHING STEEPER DECLINE 1%/y (27 Gbbl/y) 3-5%/y ~ 50% in 2030

  12. OTHER SOURCES MAINTAINING TOTAL LIQUID FUEL SO FAR; DEMAND EXCEEDS SUPPLY FROM NOW ON (31.4 Gbbl/y)

  13. SINCE 2002, ~30%/Y INCREASE

  14. PNW OIL MYTH #1 • “CANADIAN OIL SANDS CONTAIN MORE BBL OIL THAN SAUDI ARABIA, ENOUGH TO LAST THE WORLD FOR DECADES” • IT IS NOT OIL, IT IS DIRT CONTAMINATED WITH TAR • IT HAS HIGH SULFUR CONTENT • IT IS A MINING/PROCESSING OPERATION, NOT DRILLING • PROCESSING: REQUIRES GOBS OF WATER & NATURAL GAS (IN DECLINE) PRODUCTION RATE WILL ALWAYS BE SMALL, 2-3 M BBL/D, AND WILL REQUIRE SPECIAL REFINING STEPS (S REMOVAL) (& CHINA WANTS IT TOO)

  15. ORIGIN OF “CARTER DOCTRINE” U.S. REQUIRES LARGE MILITARY TO ENSURE ACCESS TO FOREIGN OIL WHAT’S OUR OIL DOING UNDER THEIR SOIL? IN PERMANENT DECLINE 2% ETHANOL SLICE USES 20% OF U.S. CORN

  16. NOTE: 80% DECLINE BY 2030!! 80% LESS BY 2030 ??

  17. SO LET’S JUST SUBSTITUTE ETHANOL FOR GASOLINE! 50% ANIMAL FEED 20% ETHANOL 20% EXPORT 10% FOOD PRODUCTS ETHANOL PRODUCTION ACTS LIKE AN INFECTION IN FOOD SUPPLY ALL U.S. CORN CROP ~ 10% OF GASOLINE USE S. STANIFORD, http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2431

  18. BEWARE OF GREENSPIN

  19. WORLD NATURAL GAS WILL PEAK ~ 2020-2030, THEN DECLINE SHARPLY http://www.energywatchgroup.de/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oil_Exec_Summary_10-2007.pdf

  20. N. AMERICAN GAS IN DECLINE, SET FOR STEEP DROP PNW: CANADA, U.S. ROCKIES

  21. WORLD COAL PRODUCTION WILL PEAK ~ 2020-2030 CHINA: PEAK ~ 2015 U.S.: PEAK ~ 2002 IN ENERGY; FINAL PEAK ~2025? OTHERS: AUSTRALIA, INDIA, S. AFRICA, RUSSIA THESE SIX NATIONS: 80% OF WORLD TOTAL http://www.energywatchgroup.de/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oil_Exec_Summary_10-2007.pdf

  22. WORLD NUCLEAR IS NEAR PEAK http://www.energywatchgroup.de/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oil_Exec_Summary_10-2007.pdf

  23. THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE BUILD CIVILIZATION ON FOSSIL FUELS PEAK EVERYTHING

  24. WHAT IF WORLD POPULATION DEPENDS ON OIL, EXCEPT FOR ~ 1 BILLION? Source: Paul Chefurka

  25. FOSSIL FUEL: A CRUTCH USED TEMPORARILY TO INCREASE POP. BEYOND CARRYING CAPACITY

  26. ASSUME BIRTH RATE DECLINE Source: Paul Chefurka

  27. POPULATION DECLINE MIGHT LOOK LIKE THIS Source: Paul Chefurka

  28. ANNUAL EXCESS DEATHS WOULD LOOK LIKE THIS, PEAKING ~ 2030 NORMAL WW II Source: Paul Chefurka

  29. WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION BEGS FOR IMMEDIATE POLITICAL ATTENTION **WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION NOW >90% DEPENDENT ON FOSSIL FUEL************************************************** OPTIONS TO MINIMIZE POPULATION COLLAPSE - PRIORITIZE OIL & GAS USE TO FOOD PRODUCTION IN NEAR-TERM - START NOW TO UNLINK FOOD PRODUCTION FROM FOSSIL FUELS (SUSTAINABLE FOOD PRODUCTION)

  30. SO, WHAT DOES SUSTAINABLE FOOD PRODUCTION ENTAIL? • RESTORE SOIL NUTRIENTS & MICROBES • NO FOSSIL FUEL INPUTS • LABOR: HUMANS & OXEN • COMPOST / RECYCLE ALL WASTE TO MAINTAIN NUTRIENT & MICROBE LEVELS IN SOIL • SMALL (FEW ACRE) “FAMILY” FARMS • IN CITIES, FOOD NOT LAWNS • FOOD GROWING ZONES AROUND CITIES • FOOD PRESERVATION IN COLD CLIMATES • FOOD PRODUCED WITHIN 10(?) MILES

  31. TWO GENERAL SUSTAINABLE FOOD GROWING METHODS • PERMACULTURE – LEAST EFFORT • MODEL: AN EDIBLE FOREST GARDEN • FRUIT & NUT TREES • BERRY BUSHES • PERENNIAL VEGGIES / GROUND-COVER • BIO-INTENSIVE GARDENING • DOUBLE-DUG, RAISED BEDS • ANNUAL VEGGIES • BOTH CAN USE COMPANION PLANTING AND APPROPRIATE ANIMALS

  32. THIS FOOD CHALLENGE ALMOST DEFIES IMAGINATION • RICHARD HEINBERG SAYS THE U.S. NEEDS 50 MILLION NEW FARMERS BY 2030 USING SUSTAINABLE METHODS • WHATCOM COUNTY WOULD NEED ABOUT 30,000 “SMALL” FARMERS • WE NEED TO BE TRAINING ABOUT 1,500 NEW “SMALL” FARMERS PER YEAR, AND • GET THEM ONTO SMALL FARMS

  33. THE SECOND, ACCELERATING ELEPHANT

  34. OOOOOPS, WE’VE REACHED 0.8 DEG CSINCE 1800!!! (WITH ANOTHER 0.6 DEG C IN THE PIPELINE) WE MAY HAVE PASSED 2 “TIPPING POINTS”

  35. OBSERVED REGIONAL WARMING CONSISTENT WITH MODELS

  36. THIS IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE BUILD CIVILIZATION ON FOSSIL FUELS

  37. Comparing with the UN IPCC Scenarios • Our projection has lower emissions than any of the 40 IPCC scenarios • This is still true even with full coal reserves • Jean Laherrere has been pointing out that something is wrong for years Projection SOURCE: http://rutledge.caltech.edu/

  38. Simulated Carbon-Dioxide Levels Realistic fossil fuel (solid) 50% Stretch-out (dashed) • Simulations from the program MAGICC from Tom Wigley at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder. This program was used in the earlier UN IPCC Assessment Reports. • Our projection gives a peak CO2 concentration of 460ppm SOURCE: http://rutledge.caltech.edu/

  39. Simulated Temperature Rises +1.7C Realistic FF 50% Stretch-out • SOURCE:http://rutledge.caltech.edu/ Future coal burning +0.3C Recovery 800 years

  40. WILL FOSSIL FUEL DECLINERESOLVE CLIMATE CHANGE WORRIES? • 2008 ANSWER: NO, BECAUSE • FIRST HALF OF FOSSIL FUELS LED TO~1.5 DEG C AVE. T CHANGE AND DESTABLIZED THE POLAR REGIONS • SECOND HALF WOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ANOTHER 1.5 DEG C INCREASE, AND ?????????????? • EVEN 1.5 DEG C EXCEEDS THRESHHOLD FOR DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE OF 0.5 DEG C

  41. CONCLUSIONS • FOSSIL FUEL DECLINE WILL PRESENT UNPRECEDENTED HARDSHIP, RISK, & DOWNSCALED LIFESTYLES, ~~ NOW • DITTO FOR MITIGATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE; TOO LATE TO AVOID DANGEROUS AGW (BUT WHEN?) • WHILE ADJUSTING TO ENERGY DECLINE, WATCH YOUR BACKSIDE FOR CLIMATE SURPRISES

  42. MY LIST OF TTTAD DONE OR STARTED • EXPERIMENT WITH PERMACULTURE, BIO-INTENSIVE FOOD GROWING • ELECTRIC VEHICLES, BIKE, TRANSIT • HOME HEAT VIA WOOD • COMMUNITY PRESENTATIONS & AGITATION FUTURE • SOLAR PANELS, SOLAR HEAT, WIND • COMPOSTING TOILET SYSTEM • ROOFTOP WATER COLLECTION • ANIMALS FOR FOOD & FIBER & DAIRY • RESIST MOVING TO PORTLAND AREA

  43. AGITATE FOR CITY/COUNTY TO DEVELOP & ADOPT A PEAK OIL PLAN PORTLAND HAS A PEAK OIL PLAN, APRIL 2007

  44. AND, MADELEINE LIVES IN PORTLAND

  45. THE END(OF THIS PRESENTATION) YOU LIVE IN INTERESTING TIMES

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