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Can East Asia confront the new normal? Achieving the MDGs in a changed global setting

Can East Asia confront the new normal? Achieving the MDGs in a changed global setting . Vikram Nehru World Bank Sydney, June 17, 2010. East Asia…. ….and the Pacific Islands. Growth. Incomes have grown fastest in East Asia and the Pacific (GNI per capita, 1967-2008; 1967=100).

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Can East Asia confront the new normal? Achieving the MDGs in a changed global setting

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  1. Can East Asia confront the new normal?Achieving the MDGs in a changed global setting Vikram Nehru World Bank Sydney, June 17, 2010

  2. East Asia…

  3. ….and the Pacific Islands

  4. Growth

  5. Incomes have grown fastest in East Asia and the Pacific (GNI per capita, 1967-2008; 1967=100)

  6. Asian trade links

  7. Higher GDP per capita growth is associated with better MDG performance on Under -5 Child Mortality Sources: World Bank WDI

  8. East Asia is ahead of most other developing regions in achieving the MDGs, although improvement in child mortality lags … Source: World Bank, (2010), Global Economic Prospects. Note: Greater than 100 percent means that the goal will be surpassed.

  9. Fragile states (there are seven in East Asia and the Pacific) made the least progress

  10. serious Three concerns……………. ^

  11. First the global…………. ….and now the European financial crisis!

  12. Rising inequalities……………

  13. Rapid urbanization Environmental damage Vulnerability to natural disasters and climate change…..

  14. Implications of the global crisis……………..

  15. The global financial crisis has made achieving the MDGs more challenging Source: Global Monitoring Report, World Bank, 2010

  16. Worldwide, the crisis will leave an additional 64 million people in extreme poverty by the end of 2010……………. …….of which 14 million will be in East Asia and the Pacific. World Bank Global Monitoring Report, 2010

  17. Implications for policy? More – not less – integration!

  18. Rising inequality……………..

  19. Inequality is not between but within rural and urban areas Sources: EAP Poverty Program database.

  20. China: Western regions lag infant mortality

  21. Indonesia: Intra-urban and intra-rural inequality Sources: EAP Poverty Program database.

  22. Indonesia: Regional disparities in maternal care Percent of births attended by healthcare workers, 2009

  23. Implications for policy? Encourage spatially blind institutions. Unbalanced growth -- inclusive development!

  24. The world is not flat!

  25. Implications of environmental degradation and climate change ……………..

  26. 450 million additional urbanites in East Asia in the next two decades …………….. …………….. that’s one new Paris a month!

  27. Tackling the urbanization ills of time, grime, and crime Land markets Connectivity City services

  28. And then there’s climate change……………..

  29. Typhoon Ondo (Philippines) Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar)

  30. “There is no alternative to sustainability”

  31. Mitigation Adaptation Green growth

  32. To summarize • Rapid green growth possible for East Asia. • Spatially blind policies for convergence. • Climate change a particular threat.

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