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Miami October 2010 Mike Bryant Director Gas Operations. Steadily Climbing Supply. U.S. Lower 48 Production. Rig Counts - Still Meaningful?. Rig Count and Lower 48 Production. Unconventional Gas “Hot Spots”. Shale Rig Counts. Haynesville. Barnett. Eagle Ford. Fayetteville. Woodford.
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Miami October 2010 Mike Bryant Director Gas Operations
Steadily Climbing Supply U.S. Lower 48 Production
Rig Counts - Still Meaningful? Rig Count and Lower 48 Production
Shale Rig Counts Haynesville Barnett Eagle Ford Fayetteville Woodford
How Much Gas is Down There? • According to ICF International, the U.S. has a resource base of over 2,800 Tcf, recoverable using current technologies • Enough to meet consumption needs for more than 130 years • Around 1,500 Tcf is economically recoverable at price of $5.00 • Improving technologies should increase the estimate over time
Shale Forecasts Going Up Wood Mackenzie 2020 Production Forecast
Regional Supply Outlook Sep 2010 Long Term View
Haynesville Shale Shifting Focus Area TEXAS LOUISIANA
Haynesville Shale Growth • Growth of 2 Bcf/day over the past year • Backlog of as many as 300 wells (drilled and waiting on completion) suggests further production gains to come • Numbers support increased rig efficiencies • Since Q3 ‘08: • average well depths have increased 7% • Days to compete wells have decreased by 35% Sep 2010 Long Term View - Enbridge presentation
Eagle Ford Shale • Petrohawk discovery in South Texas; potentially spanning as many as 11 counties • For many years, the shale was known by South Texas drillers as a nuisance – tough to drill through on the way to other formations. • First well came in at 9.1 MMcf/d, higher than average Barnett Shale wells • Wells have tested as high as 17 MMcf/d (dry) to nearly 20 MMcf/d (wet) • High quality gas and condensates
Eagle Ford Shale • Current production around 400 MMcf/d • Some estimates have production at 4 Bcf/day by 2015 • Current infrastructure focus on midstream facilities
Marcellus Shale • Some estimates have as much as 8 Bcf/day by 2014 • Current production over 1.3 Bcf/day • In 2008, forecasted production did not reach 1 Bcf/day until 2014!
Fayetteville Shale Going Strong • New takeaway pipelines have driven production increases • Fayetteville Lateral in 2009 • Fayetteville Express to start up by next month • Expected to peak at around 3.5 Bcf/day by 2021 (Wood Mackenzie) Source: Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission
We Can’t Forget the Barnett… • The largest gas–producing field in the country • Drilling is active around smaller areas with oil and liquids
FGT Phase VIII Expansion Project • Design capacity 820,000 MMBtu/d • Shippers – FP&L, Progress, Seminole, Tampa Electric, OUC, Tallahassee • FERC approval received – Nov. 2009 • Target in-service date – April 2011 • Total capacity into Florida of 3.1 Bcf/day
2010 Throughput Daily Deliveries In Florida HighLow 2.406 Bcf 1.230 Bcf Peak Day Deliveries in Florida Volume# of Days > 2.4 Bcf 1 > 2.3 Bcf 23 > 2.2 Bcf 52 > 2.1 Bcf 43 Daily Average Deliveries June – August 2.23 Bcf/d 99% Load Factor
FGT Storage Connections Egan Napoleonville Southern Pines Bay Gas Spindletop Golden Triangle Bobcat Petrologistics Tres Palacios Pine Prairie • Golden Triangle in-service December 2010 • Direct connections with 10 storage facilities • Total storage capacity of over 175 Bcf • Over 4 Bcf/day of receipt capacity from storage
New / Expanded Supply Options Enterprise – Acadian 1.0 Bcf/d FGT/Transco – Citronelle 1.1 Bcf/d Golden Pass 250 MM/d Gulf LNG/Pascagoula Lateral 342 MM/d
Golden Pass Terminal & Pipeline Golden Pass Interconnect 250 MM/d • Qatar Petroleum & Exxon Mobil Corp. • LNG Terminal – 2 Bcf/d sendout capacity • Will be commissioning terminal late 2010 • Golden Pass Pipeline – 2.5 Bcf/d • Interconnect with FGT in Orange Co., TX
FGT / Transco Citronelle Interconnect Transco Sta. 85 • Planned upgrades at Citronelle will increase • capacity to 1.1 Bcf/d in 2011 • Transco expansion projects provide • southbound capacity from Station 85 • Mobile Bay South I 254/d – May 2010 • Mobile Bay South II 380/d – May 2011
Enterprise – Acadian Gas Pipeline Haynesville Shale Supply Acadian 1 Bcf/d • Haynesville Extension Pipeline Project • 270 mile 42”/36” pipeline • 1.8 Bcf/d capacity, expandable to 2.1 Bcf/d • 1 Bcf/d interconnect with FGT in LA • In-service 3rd Qtr 2011
Gulf LNG Terminal • Near Pascagoula, MS • Storage Capacity - 6.6 Bcf • Firm Sendout - 1.3 Bcf/d • Terminal Owners • GE, Sonangol & El Paso (operator) • Terminal Capacity Holders • Chevron, BP, Total, Eni & Sonangol • Target in-service date – Sept. 2011
FGT Pascagoula Lateral Project • Joint project – FGT & Transco • Direct connection to the Gulf LNG Terminal • Total lateral capacity – 810,000 MMBtu/day • FGT 343,000 MMBtu/day • Transco 467,000 MMBtu/day • Received FERC approval – July 2010 • Start construction – early 2011 • Target in-service date – Sept. 2011
Pascagoula Lateral Project FGT Mainline FGT Compressor Station 11 FGT Compressor Station 10 FGT (Existing) FGT / Transco Pascagoula Lateral (15 miles 26”) Tie-in to both FGT & Transco Mobile Bay Laterals FGT/Transco (Existing) FGT/Gulf South (Existing) Gulf LNG Terminal 5.0 miles Mobile Bay Supply Gulf LNG Pipeline