Mastering Critical Thinking: Techniques and Examples for Identifying Arguments and Conclusions

1. Critical Thinking Wednesday 6 October 2010 Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan Presenter: Nigel Monaghan

2. A few definitions • Argument – reasons leading to conclusions intended to persuade • Conclusion – what the argument is persuading to accept • Reason – a statement which supports a conclusion All arguments have a conclusion and at least 1 reason. Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

3. How to identify conclusions • Therefore... • So... • Then... • Thus... • In consequence... • As a result... Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

4. How to identify reasons • Not so easy, requires judgement. Is the following an argument? • Many people enjoy smoking. So smoking should not be banned in public places. Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

5. Group Exercise 1 Identifying arguments, conclusions and reasons • Please follow the instructions on the sheet Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

6. Answers to Exercise 1 • Argument: The ice caps are melting (Reason). Therefore there must be global warming (Conclusion). Carbon emissions must be reduced (Not a conclusion unless a reason is given stating a relationship between carbon emissions and global warming). • Argument: Car manufacturers should fit digital radios to cars (Conclusion). My new car has an analogue radio (Reason 2). The analogue radio signal will be turned off in five years time (Reason 1). Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

7. Answers to Exercise 1 • No Argument: Healthy eating is good for you. The dining room does not offer healthy eating options. There is a water dispenser in the office. • Argument: Routine data collection is needed (Conclusion). Other hospitals report more critical incidents than our hospital (Reason 2). Voluntary reporting has led to very few incidents being identified in our hospital (Reason 1). Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

8. Relevance and adequacy • Reasons must have some relevance to the conclusion • You explored this in exercise 1 • Some reasons justify the conclusion being drawn, these are adequate. Others are not adequate (e.g. Is the fact that some people enjoy smoking an adequate reason to not ban smoking in public places?) Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

9. Smoking is allowed Therefore people should be allowed to smoke anywhere R = Reason C = Conclusion IC = Intermediate conclusion R ↓ C An argument diagram Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

10. Eating fruit is good for me (R1) I enjoy eating peaches (R2) I eat lots of peaches in the summer (C) R1 R2 ↓ C 2 Independent Reasons Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

11. I have raised cholesterol levels (R1) Eating oats helps to lower cholesterol (R2) Therefore I have porridge for breakfast (C) R1 + R2 ↓ C Reasons acting together Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

12. Many local children have no immunity to measles (R1) Measles outbreaks are ongoing in Wales (R2) So our children should be vaccinated against measles (IC) Parents are worried about side effects of MMR jabs (R3) Therefore we should offer separate measles vaccination (C) R1 + R2 ↓ IC + R3 ↓ C A more complex example Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

13. Group Exercise 2 Part 1 Constructing arguments • Please follow the instructions on the sheet Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

14. Example Answer to Exercise 2 Part 1 Few bleeds previous 1/4 + More bleeds last quarterNew surgeons 3 months ago + bleeding increases with different instruments Problem is within last ¼ + New surgeons are at increased risk of causing bleeding New surgeons could be cause of increased bleeding What additional information did you request? …And why? Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

15. Group Exercise 2 Part 2 On further discussing the incident with staff you have been told the following additional information: • Concerns about CJD mean that disposable instruments have been introduced recently • Our staff have little experience using disposable instruments for tonsillectomy • The new surgeons have a similar pattern of bleeds over the last quarter to the “old” surgeons. Construct an argument diagram based on all the information you now have. Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

16. Example Answer to Exercise 2 Part 2 Disposables introduced recently + Staff have little experience using disposables + Bleeding increases when use different instruments New surgeons 3 months ago + Similar pattern of bleeds New/”Old”last 1/4 Few bleeds previous 1/4 + More bleeds last quarter Problem is within last ¼ + All surgeons are at increased risk of causing bleeding Use of disposables could be a cause of increased bleeding + Change occured in last ¼ for all surgeons Introduction of disposable instruments is likely to have increased risk of bleeding post-tonsillectomy Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

17. Adequacy and clinical issues • Biological variation and other unknowns may play a role in clinical incidents and outcomes • As a result arguments constructed to explain an event may not be sufficient to fully explain what happened and why • There may also be alternative arguments • Constructing one or more arguments and exploring adequacy may help to identify the most likely series of events and help to identify areas for preventive action Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

18. Group Exercise 3 • Your clinical director has just undertaken root cause analysis training but is unsure how to identify what to prioritise when tackling a root cause. After your report on the tonsillectomy bleeding case she is confident you can use you critical thinking skills to develop some generic criteria she can use to help identify potential action points for the tonsillectomy bleeds and to prioritise which should be addressed first. • She wants you to develop some generic criteria with an explanation of how these criteria increase the likelihood that actions taken will reduce the risk of recurrence. Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

19. Group Exercise 3 – Example Criteria • 1. Is action required? Do events of this type pose risk to the organisation and individuals? • 2. If action is required: • Key points should be selected because action at those points should prevent all future occurances (or failing that greatly reduce risk of future occurance) – i.e. are on a key path • Key points should be selected because they are potentially in the control of the organisation(s) • Action proposed should be feasible in terms of likely control and difficulty of implementation • Combinations of actions should be selected to maximise synergism of effect and minimise antagonism (e.g. 2 contributing major pathways = 1 control on each rather than 2 on 1 pathway, e.g consider mathematical modelling of event) • Effectiveness of control process should be measurable and therefore reviewable • Data collection for monitoring should be easy to achieve and collect sufficient data (completeness) to be meaningful • Data collection should facilitate early intervention Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan

20. Critical thinking is just the start • ...and I have finished • Thank you for listening • Any questions? • Further reading: • Critical Thinking for Students, Roy van den Brink-Budgen ISBN 1857036343 • Thinking from A to Z, Nigel Warburton ISBN 0415433716 • Critical Thinking: An Introduction, Alec Fisher ISBN 0521009843 Critical Thinking Nigel Monaghan