1st ANNUAL WORKSHOP NAS-WIDE SIMULATION IN SUPPORT OF NEXTGEN: REQUIREMENTS AND CAPABILITIES

1. 1st ANNUAL WORKSHOPNAS-WIDE SIMULATION IN SUPPORT OF NEXTGEN:REQUIREMENTS AND CAPABILITIES Lance Sherry Center for Air Transportation Systems Research George Mason University

2. Workshop Background • NAS-wide Simulations will play a major role in the development of NextGen Concepts-of-Operations • authorization of development funding • authorization of implementation funding

3. Objective of Workshop • Identify potential “gaps” for NAS-wide Simulation • What Con-Ops should be simulated in NAS-wide Simulation • What “functions” are required to model a given Con-Op • Risks (Con-op not defined, performance measure ambiguous, algorithm to support absent)

4. Definition: NAS-Wide Models • Simulates the performance of the NAS at the granularity of individual flights over the course of one day. • Sequencing of individual flights through runways and airspace • may include gates and taxiways • Inputs: • Flight Schedule for Day (itinerary, fleet assignment, seat size, engine-types), • routes and Crz FLs (optional), • Airport Arrival/Departure Capacity, Sector capacity, • Flow Management (may include delays, sequencing, and re-routing for weather) • Outputs: • Delays per Flight (Delays per flight segment) • Actual Airport Arrival/Departure • Airspace Utilization, • ATCo workload, complexity, • Fuel Burn, Noise, Emissions

5. NextGen Con-Ops

6. Workshop Outcomes • NextGen Con-Ops that should appropriately be modeled in NAS-wide Simulations • e.g. Airborne Re-routing, integrated surface ops? • NAS-wide Simulation Functions required to support NextGen Con-ops • e.g. Airborne Re-routing Con-Ops will require “functions” to perform: route planning function, trajectory conflict detection • Risks • NextGen Con-Ops not defined in sufficient detail (e.g. Dynamic Airspace Allocation) • No consensus on definition of Performance Measure (e.g. Probabilistic Capacity) • Algorithms/Behaviors need to be developed and tested

7. Agenda • Coffee/Tea available during breaks • Lunch (Bistro, Food Court, Restaurant) • Presentations posted on website • http://catsr.ite.gmu.edu

8. NextGen Con-Ops Separation Management (SM) Runway/Airspace Demand Actual Capacity Trajectory Management (TM) Capacity Management (CM) Flightplan Demand Forecast Capacity Flow Contingency Management (FCM) Scheduled Demand

9. NextGen Con-Ops Implementation • Reduced Separation Distance • Vector • 4-D Planning • Reduced Conflict Resolution • Trajectory Forecasting • 4-D Planning • Probabilistic Capacity and Demand Forecasting • Probabilistic Decision-Making • Collaborative Decision-making

10. 2-Day Workshop (Mid-Feb ’09) • Demand for workshop on this topic • 60+ registered for this workshop • Increased scope • Demand Modeling (forecasting, itin assignment, de-peaking, …) • Performance Metrics • Safety • Environment • Passengers • Monetization of Benefits

11. Introductions • Name • Affiliation

12. Backups

13. WELCOME 1st ANNUAL WORKSHOP NAS-WIDE SIMULATION IN SUPPORT OF NEXTGEN RESEARCH 1 BUILDING ROOM 401