Brain vs. Computer per ‘quantum of time’

1. B. Dorfman 11/04 Computers: Past and Forecast Part 2

2. B. Dorfman 11/04 Computers: Past and Forecast Part 2

3. B. Dorfman 11/04 Computers: Past and Forecast Part 2

4. Brain vs. Computerper ‘quantum of time’ Direct comparison of performances Brain vs. Computer would be improper due to great differences in the respective frequencies neuron vs. solid-state m-processor. Instead, we will introduce ‘quantum of time’ – the time interval reversed to frequency and will compare the Brain vs. Computer performances during the respective quantum of time. B. Dorfman 11/04 Computers: Past and Forecast Part 2

5. B. Dorfman 11/04 Computers: Past and Forecast Part 2

6. B. Dorfman 11/04 Computers: Past and Forecast Part 2

7. B. Dorfman 11/04 Computers: Past and Forecast Part 2

8. Brain Structure vs. Solid-State Structure B. Dorfman 11/04 Computers: Past and Forecast Part 2

9. This diagram of the year 1981 (V. F. Dorfman, On the Border of Millenniums, Moscow, 1982. In Russian) locates the brain (hatched area from the right side) vs. computers Number of elements (processors or neurons )– number of connections between each elements with other elements, frequency of elements. Shown are three major directions of computers’ development trends: 1. Maximum speed of elements vs. minimum connections in specialized computers; 2. Medium speed and connectivity in standard computers; 3. Limited speed vs. maximum connectivity in eventual provisioned trend directed to (but not reaching) the brain performance. Frequency Number of elements Number of connections /element B. Dorfman 11/04 Computers: Past and Forecast Part 2

10. B. Dorfman 11/04 Computers: Past and Forecast Part 2

11. B. Dorfman 11/04 Computers: Past and Forecast Part 2

12. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT of COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY V.F.Dorfman, On the Border of Millenniums, Moscow, 1982 Large systems are very far from respective limits, and as it may be shown, they never will be able to reach them in the frame of existing principles of technology. The central problem is extremely complex network of internal connections of system, which, in turn, makes the technological limitations most fundamental if not single…The key role of interconnection should not seem surprising taking into account that, from the first IC, the destination and sense of microelectronics was creation of technology uniting the active elements and interconnections in single crystal. B. Dorfman 11/04 Computers: Past and Forecast Part 2

13. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT of COMPUTER TECHNOLOGY V.F.Dorfman, On the Border of Millenniums, Moscow, 1982 . P.60 In microelectronics, “linear prognosis” quickly comes to absurd. Indeed, at the given pace of miniaturization being persistent, the density of elements in IC would come to atomic density in 30 years. …hence, geometric limits are not far already. While exhausting external resources, evolution of IC must turn to deeper transformation of internal organization of solid-state devices. In fact, this evolution is splitting into… branches differentiating by functional possibilities of systems, their assignment, and conditions of operation. In this multidimensional space of parameters, complexity of internal organization is the most important. B. Dorfman 11/04 Computers: Past and Forecast Part 2

14. SUGGESTED FORECAST FOR FUTURE COMPUTER DEVELOPMENT B. Dorfman 11/04 Computers: Past and Forecast Part 2 FUTURE COMPUTER GENERATIONS