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Global Change

Global Change. Have we reached The Tipping Point ?. International Panel on Climate Change IPCC. T he IPCC reflect the views of 2,500 scientists - including eight Nobel Laureates The IPCC makes regular assessment reports on Climate Change 1990, 1991, 2001 & 2007 (FAR)

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Global Change

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  1. Global Change Have we reached The Tipping Point ?

  2. International Panel on Climate Change IPCC • The IPCC reflect the views of 2,500 scientists - including eight Nobel Laureates • The IPCC makes regular assessment reports on Climate Change 1990, 1991, 2001 & 2007 (FAR) • The Fourth Assessment Report (FAR) summary was published February 2, 2007 In Paris and the full report was be produced later in the year.

  3. Contributions of greenhouse gases to Global WarmingWorldwide. • Carbon Dioxide CO266% • MethaneCH4 18% • Chlorfluocarbons CFCs11%  • NOx & others 5% source IPPC

  4. IPCC 2007 – Radiative Forcing Components

  5. IPCC 2007 - Carbon Dioxide Concentration "The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range over the last 650,000 years"  (the period over which measurements are possible from ice cores)  Source International Panel on Climate Change February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers

  6. Carbon Cycle Giga tonnes

  7. Temperature & CO2 over 450,000 years

  8. CO2 andTemperature for 150,000 Years

  9. CO2 over 1000 Years

  10. CO2 Measured on Mauna Loa – Hawaai 1960-2007

  11. CO2 Measured on Mauna Loa – Hawaai 2004-08

  12. Solar Cosmic Ray cycles Solar cycles of about 11y are too short to affect climate long term

  13. IPCC 2007 - Carbon Dioxide Forcing "The carbon dioxide radiative forcing increased by 20% from 1995 to 2005, the largest change for any decade in at least the last 200 years." Source International Panel on Climate Change February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers

  14. IPCC 2007 - Carbon Dioxide Source "The primary source of the increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide since the pre-industrial period results from fossil fuel use, with land use change providing another significant but smaller contribution." Source International Panel on Climate Change February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers

  15. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel

  16. Methane Emissions

  17. IPCC 2001 –Effects of Global Warming

  18. IPCC 2007 –Effects of Global Warming

  19. IPCC 2007 – Ocean Warming "Since 1961 the average temperature of the global ocean has increased to depths of at least 3000 m and the ocean has been absorbing more than 80% of the heat added to the climate system. Such warming causes seawater to expand, contributing to sea level rise" Source International Panel on Climate Change February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers

  20. IPCC 2001-07 – Sea Level Rise

  21. Sea Level Rise - is IPCC too optimistic? (1) Source http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/03/the-ipcc-sea-level-numbers/

  22. Sea Level Rise - is IPCC too optimistic? (2) Source http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/03/the-ipcc-sea-level-numbers/

  23. Ocean WarmingNew Research December 2007 A study by a consortium of scientists from the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton and other institutes states “The average rate of rise of 1.6 metres per century is roughly twice as high as the maximum estimates in the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment report." Source http://www.southampton.ac.uk/mediacentre/news/2007/dec/07_177.shtml

  24. The rapid melting of ice inGreenland, Antarctica and elsewhere is accelerating the movement of glaciers leading to a more rapid loss than was previously expected.

  25. Sea Level Rise Belgium & Netherlands 0m

  26. Sea Level Rise Belgium & Netherlands 1m

  27. Sea Level Rise Belgium & Netherlands 2m

  28. London UK Sea Level Rise 2100 ?

  29. 1995 Lower Rhine heavy local rain and runoff

  30. IPCC 2007 –Temp. Sea Level & Snow Cover

  31. IPCC 2007 – Getting hotter quicker "Global average surface warming (this century) is likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5°C with a best estimate of about 3°C, and is very unlikely to be less than 1.5°C. Values substantially higher than 4.5°C cannot be excluded."  Source International Panel on Climate Change February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers

  32. European Summer 2003 • Likelihood of occurring 140,000y • 30,000 deaths • Low crop yields • Wildfires • 10% loss of Alpine Glaciers • Source Schar et Al.,NATURE | VOL 427 | 22 JANUARY 2004 p333

  33. IPCC 2007 – Hot Years "Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (kept since 1850)."   Source International Panel on Climate Change February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers

  34. The effect of temperature on crop yield

  35. The effect of temperature on cereals yield

  36. Sub Saharan Africa – Kenya a country in distress 1 • Mountain glaciers disappearing on Mount Kenya and Kilimanjaro • rain-fed agriculture accounts for over 90% of food production • Increased frequency of droughts and floods • Kenya's population growth rate is still one of the highest in the world at 30 % in 10 years • Forest resources and soil cover are being depleted • Internal conflict over resources

  37. Sub Saharan Africa – Kenya a country in distress 2 ‘Kenya’s arid Turkana district, which borders Ethiopia, has only two sources of freshwater – the Turkwell and Omo rivers. The Turkwell, in Kenya, has been dammed to generate electricity, reducing its flow downstream. The Omo originates in the Ethiopian highlands and they’re now diverting this water for irrigation. Lake Turkana is turning saline and its level has dropped by 60 metres over the last ten years. Professor Richard Odingo, vice-chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ‘there will be mass migrations by peoplefrom Africa in search of food-Europe should be prepared,’ he says. ‘We are either goingto prosper together or perish together when climate changecomes. They should not think that the barrier between Moroccoand Spain will stop people from the south moving into Europe.’Professor Eric Odada of the International Council forScience,

  38. Loss of Arctic ice could arrest the Ocean Conveyor belt and the Gulf Stream

  39. The saltiness of the bottom current has already weakened in the last 40 years

  40. Fred L Smith and Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute Craig Rucker from the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) Steven Hayward from the American Enterprise Institute Terrence Scanlon from the Capital Research Center Joseph L Bast of the Heartland Institute Deroy Murdock of the Atlas Economic Research Foundation (AERF) H Stirling Burnett of the National Center for Policy Analysis all funding details froman official Exxon document funding from Exxon $280,000 in 2001 funding from Exxon $35,000 in 2001 funding from Exxon $25,000 in 2001 funding from Exxon $25,000 in 2001 funding from Exxon $90,000 in 2001 funding from Exxon $150,000 in 2001 funding from Exxon $20,000 in 2001 Oily PoliticsA letter to President George W Bush before the Johannesburg Summit in 2002 from political groups and individuals asked him not to participate. Signatories included:-

  41. IPCC 2007 – Global Warming "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level" Source International Panel on Climate Change February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers

  42. IPCC 2007 – A rapidly changing planet "Long-term changes in climate have been observed including changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones" Source International Panel on Climate Change February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers

  43. Fiddling while the Earth burns1 “I think we have a problem onglobal warming.  There is a worthy debate on whether global warming is caused by human activities.” Birthday interview06-07-2006 “I think we all agree, the past is over.”Meeting with John McCain10-05-2000 Some of the scientists I believe, haven’t they been changing their opinion a little bit on global warming?Presidential Debate 11-10 2000 “ The best way to get the news is from objective sources, and the most objective sources I have are people on my staff who tell me what's happening in the world.” Fox interview23-9-2003 1 The emporer Nero is supposed to have played the fiddle (violin) while Rome burned

  44. IPCC 2007 – The train is on the move! "Continued greenhouse gas emissions at or above current rates would cause further warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20th century" Source International Panel on Climate Change February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers

  45. Carbon Emissions - rapidly getting worse • Emissions were rising by less than 1% annually up to the year 2000, but are now rising at 2.5% per year. • the acceleration comes mainly from a rise in charcoal consumption and a lack of new energy efficiency gains • 7.9 billion tonnes (gigatonnes, Gt) of carbon passed into the atmosphere last year. In 2000, the figure was 6.8Gt. • From 2000 to 2005, the growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions was more than 2.5% per year, whereas in the 1990s it was less than 1% per year • EU biofuel could absorb 0.12 % by 2010 and a maximum of 1.4% by 2030 but might compete with food requirements • Source Global Carbon Project- 27 November 2006

  46. IPCC 2007 – Model Temperature Predictions

  47. IPCC 2007 – Stop the train I want to get off !! "Anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the timescales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas concentrations were to be stabilized." Source International Panel on Climate Change February 2007 – Summary for Policymakers

  48. Methane Hydrate Clathrates – The hidden bomb

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