Global Environmental Change

2. Global Environmental Change Changes in the biophysical environment caused or strongly influencedby human activities For example changes in: Land cover & soils Atmospheric composition Climate variability & means Water availability & quality Nitrogen availability & cycling Biodiversity Sea currents & salinity Sea level

3. ™ MarkSim Simulated maize yields: baseline and changes by 2055 (from Jones & Thornton, CGIAR, 2001) present 2055

4. GECAFS Goal To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of global environmental change on food systems and to assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptation responses.

5. Food Provision Provision = f (production, availability, access) Production = f (yield, area) Availability = f (production, distribution, storage) Access = f (availability, socioeconomic potential [e.g. affordability], & physiological potential [e.g. nutritional quality])

6. GECAFS Long-Term Aims • Understand how GEC will additionally affect food provision in different regional food systems. •  GECAFS Science Theme 1 • Determine how different food systems might be adapted to cope with both GEC and changing demands. •  GECAFS Science Theme 2 • Assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of such adaptations. •  GECAFS Science Theme 3

7. GECAFS Science Themes Socioeconomic Change Global Environmental Change Theme 1 Vulnerability and Impacts Theme 3 Environmental Feedbacks Theme 2 Adaptations Adapted Food Provision Food Provision Theme 3 Socioeconomic Feedbacks

8. Two types of GECAFS Projects • Food Systems Research • Sub-continental scale • e.g. Subsistence & commercial arable (Indo-Gangetic Plain) • Import & subsistence arable + fishing (Caribbean) • Conceptual and Methodological Research • Generic • e.g. Vulnerability concepts • Scenario development

9. Food Systems Research Projects • Research being developed to: • relate to regional development needs • have relevance to current and near-term issues, as well as to longer-term issues Ensures a GEC science agenda that: • interacts effectively with the regional policy making process and thereby encourages more support for the regional science communities • attracts donor support from outside the “traditional” GEC funding community

10. Food Systems Research Projects Selection Criteria • Principal Criteria: • Range of Food Systems • Range of GEC Issues • Other Criteria (alphabetically listed): • Geographical balance of the portfolio of projects • Policy interest/mechanism at project scale • Potential donor interest • Potential links to IGBP, IHDP & WCRP Core Projects • Potential regional coordination/leadership • Relevance to regional development

11. Food Systems Research Projects Initial Set + Main GEC Issues • Subsistence & commercial arable (Indo-Gangetic Plain) • water availability, climate change & variability, GHG emissions • Import & subsistence arable + fishing (Caribbean) • climate variability, sea-level rise, coastal zone degradation • Commercial & subsistence arable + livestock (Southern Africa) • climate variability, land degradation • Income/livelihoods-based (Eastern Pacific coastal fisheries) • ENSO/sea currents, marine biodiversity loss

12. Conceptual & Methodological Research Initial Set • Vulnerability Concepts • To integrate concepts of vulnerability of social aspects of food systems with concepts from natural science to provide a more holistic approach to vulnerability studies. • Scenario Construction • To determine how to construct the comprehensive scenarios needed for providing appropriate context for GECAFS food systems research. • Decision Support Systems Development • To develop, evaluate and refine innovative decision support systems for use in GECAFS food systems research.

13. Population density in areas where the length of the growing period (LGP) is <90 days. Based on Global Agro-ecological Zones (AEZ), Landscan2000 population density, and irrigation maps (from FAO, GIS-SDRN unpublished).

14. GECAFS “Distinguishing Features” • A robust framework for novel, interdisciplinary approaches to GEC research that examines vulnerability to impacts, adaptations and feedbacks. • A problem-oriented, policy-relevant approach which can bring together the GEC and Development agendas, and their donor communities. • A design for analyses at regional and sub-regional levels which will help develop effective policy to protect vulnerable sections of society. • A methodology which allows an analysis of trade-offs between managing resources for both food provision and environment.

15. Potential GECAFS questions for Eastern Pacific Coastal Fisheries How will climate variability and other aspects of GEC affect food systems and livelihoods dependent on pelagic, demersal and coastal fishing? [GECAFS Science Theme 1] What management and policy strategies will best reduce the vulnerability of fisheries-based livelihoods to climate variability and increase employment opportunities? [GECAFS Science Theme 2] What will be the consequences of alternative strategies for local and regional biodiversity, and for poverty alleviation in coastal communities? [GECAFS Science Theme 3]