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Adhemar S. Mineiro REBRIP June 4 th ., Prague, Eurodad-Glopolis International Conference

Global power shifts - the implications of changing geopolitics for change: a perspective from Brazil. Adhemar S. Mineiro REBRIP June 4 th ., Prague, Eurodad-Glopolis International Conference. Brazilian position (since 2003) based in two pillars.

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Adhemar S. Mineiro REBRIP June 4 th ., Prague, Eurodad-Glopolis International Conference

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  1. Global power shifts - the implications of changing geopolitics for change:a perspective from Brazil Adhemar S. Mineiro REBRIP June 4th., Prague, Eurodad-GlopolisInternational Conference

  2. Brazilian position (since 2003) based in two pillars • articulate foreign policies to the construction inside the country of a new development model; • change the geopolitical world system from a US-led one to a “multipolar” system.

  3. Foreign Policies andthe New DevelopmentModel • a. reduce external vulnerabilities (balance of payments) - a1. trade liberalization (agriculture specially) (G20 in WTO); - a2. new international financial architecture: reforming IFIs (empowering Brazil), more regulation in the international level, less exposure to capital flows (financial G20) and new regional financial architecture (Banco del Sur – region, empowering BNDES, BRICS development bank). • b. build up of a new development model -b1. discussions in the UN; -b2. innovative financial tools (initial Lula-Chirac initiative, BRICS – coordination of development banks, creation of the BRICS development bank); -b3. financial G20, IBSA, BRICS; -b4. regional integration (Mercosur/Unasur/CELAC). • c. supporting the regional/international expansion of Brazilian-based TNCs.

  4. Changeofgeopolitical world system • a. balance in some way the power of the US in the region and in the South -a1. South-South cooperation; -a2. defense (Unasur defense system, South Atlantic navy articulation); -a3. looking for alternatives in the UN; -a4. BASIC articulation in climate change discussions. • b. deepening regional integration politically -b1. enhancing geopolitical “muscles” to operate in a multilateral scenario; -b2. Mercosur (reforming Mercosur parliament, Mercosur “structural compensation fund”, trade in national currencies, inclusion of Venezuela) -b3. Unasur (defense, parliament, regional financial architecture). • c. deepening articulation with other emerging powers -c1. IBSA (IBSA facility fund, peaceful uses of nuclear energy, political consultation/coordination, reform of UN Security Council) -c2. BRICS (political consultation/coordination, MDG & action against hunger and poverty, build up of common visions regarding human rights).

  5. Perspectives for theyearsto come • Limits of the model inside the country: current account surpluses based on commodity prices & FDI; • Enhancing political coalition to political support internally means less changes and a shift back to conventional development approaches; • Difficulties in managing the regional integration process (trade & productive chains conflicts with Argentina, the “Paraguay” affair, ALBA countries joining Mercosur); • Differences between government official policies & CSO´s perspectives of development (social, environmental, etc.); • Brazilian based TNCs and their negative impacts in the countries they operate; • Geopolitics of the regional leaders (role of BRICS); • New strategies from developed countries in dealing with the crisis (domestic policies, TPP, US-EU trade agreement, etc.).

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